Playing with statistical lie

SINGAPORE: A slim majority of respondents across Southeast Asia would align with China over the United States if forced to choose sides, an annual think tank survey has found - the latest swing in a region where sentiment has oscillated between the two powers in recent years.

A total of 52 per cent chose China compared to the US (48 per cent), according to the State of Southeast Asia 2026 report released on Tuesday (Apr 7), which posed a “hypothetical forced choice” between the two strategic rivals....

Beneath the headline result, responses to the survey’s forced-choice question varied widely across Southeast Asia, reflecting differing national perspectives.

Support for aligning with China was particularly strong in Indonesia (80.1 per cent), Malaysia (68 per cent), Singapore (66.3 per cent), Timor-Leste (58.2 per cent), Thailand (55 per cent) and Brunei (53.5 per cent).

In contrast, support for the US remained strong in the Philippines (76.8 per cent), its ally, as well as in Myanmar (61.4 per cent), Cambodia (61 per cent) and Vietnam (59.2 per cent). Laos saw an almost even split.  CNA

The above was 'Released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore on Tuesday (Apr 7), the survey findings place Beijing back in front after trailing Washington last year, reflecting shifting regional sentiment amid intensifying great power competition.'

Someone may want to enlighten me on how the Institute arrives at a 52/48 ratio from the above survey. They may used some weighted average or formula in their computation. When I used the numbers given above, by adding them and divided by the total, I came up with a 58/42 ratio. (80.1+68+66.3+58.2+55+53.5+50 = 431.1,  76.8+61.4+61+59.2+50 = 308.4  Total = 739.5)

There are many clever ways to manipulate statistical surveys like loading on selected respondents to steer the direction of the results wanted. Oops, I am not saying that this survey adopted questionable methods. This is a respectable academic institution. Just wanted to know how the 52/48 ratio is derived?

China learning from this war and winning without fighting

China has learned much from this war against Iran and is taking good notes of Iranian strategy albeit one ancient Civilization helping another.

China is not involved directly in this war, has not fired a single bullet, has not lost a single soldier, but is reaping tremendous benefits, just watching and just taking notes in comfort in a military establishment in China. Many analysts are now saying that China is the biggest winner of this conflict. I tend to agree.

But much actually depends on those preparations China was already making before the war even started. And all that preparation is making sense now. China's ambition of electrifying its transport system - high speed rails and the mass migration from ICE vehicles to EVs have reaped great returns from its investments. That has cut off a chunk of its dependence on fossil fuel. China is still building hydropower dams all over, nuclear power stations, solar farms and wind turbine farms. When oil was cheap, China stockpiled in preparation. All these are not white elephants for show. They are projects of National Security significance. Not building of massive data centers which are power guzzlers, needing more fossil fuel to upkeep and upending the decision to be less dependent on more fossil fuel going forward.

Apart from reaping the benefits of preparations that were made decades earlier, China has gathered important military strategies from this war. It has found great effectiveness with its anti-aircraft hypersonic drones and missiles and how to deter such aircraft carriers from moving closer to shore to launch fighter jets to carry out carpet bombing. As the range of those hypersonic drones and missiles are refined to have even longer range, that might even spell the demise of aircraft carriers, which were the masters of the sea during WW2. Such aircraft carriers were still used by the USA to threaten other countries leveraging on its projection of power, but its function has now been crippled by Iran. That they were called 'sitting ducks' years ago has now been exposed by reality.

As I said before, China is also using Iran to test its satellite system, its hypersonic drones and missiles, which have so far enabled Iran to target strategic sites like radar systems, interceptor batteries, military bases, USA linked assets, all done with precision, unlike in the past when Iran was using GPS system. It was perhaps foolish for Iran to use USA GPS system knowing it had been greatly compromised and interfered with. But then, Iran had no other choice until switching to BeiDou while fighting the war in June 2025.

Well, so much strategic information has been revealed by this war, and it will shape China's PLA strategy in future wars, with everything like satellite target fixing, hypersonic missiles, homing devices all built inhouse and not subject to outside control or interference.


Anonymous

Xi can offer the American EV market as a gift to Trump and let the Canadians and Mexicans laugh at the Americans and their EVs

China does not need to fight for the USA market for EVs in the coming days. This move has already been pre-emptied by USA senators asking the Government not to allow China to make cars in the USA. USA ICE vehicle manufacturers can keep the USA market for themselves, while the rest of the world moves on. No sweat.

If the Iran War continues, the whole world would be pivoting to China for EVs, wind turbines and solar panels. Chinese EV makers, wind turbine makers and solar panel makers are going to be laughing hilariously all the way to the bank, making some people more envious than ever. Of course, we must not ignore the possibility that China will insists on being paid in Yuan for such sales, which is another nail in the coffin of the mighty US$.

Moreover, Russia and Iran have already insisted on being paid in Yuan for their oil, and if Iran sets up its toll booth guarding the Straits of Hormuz, with tolls collected also in Yuan, that is bound to make someone run amok.

De-dollarization had been brushed aside as a mere irritant to the mighty US$. Now, it may be too late to realize that the world is seriously taking up the de-dollarization move into main street, not sidewalks.

But as always, realization often comes too late to remedy when the shit already is all over the fan.


Anonymous

Japan losing all bets on automobiles

I still remember Japan trying to dump obsolete and outdated washing machines on to the Chinese market when China was still relatively backward. Those we later discovered to be plague by problems, and the Chinese began to dislike them and the dumping ended.

Mongolia is now Japan's dumping ground for unwanted ICE and hybrid cars, what China was to Japan in the past for some consumer products. Japan has now lost the market for consumer product sales in China. Japan was earlier overtaken by South Korea, which in turn was overtaken by China and also Vietnam in the consumer products sector. Japan today is still holding on desperately to its motor vehicle industry, its last bastion of industrial power, but plague by wrong bets in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. But it was the realization that it cannot compete in EVs against China when raw materials and supply chains had all been dominated by China, which led Japan to fall into its present predicament. Japan then had no choice but to bet on hydrogen fuel cell engines, a direction which failed miserably.


Anonymous

Singapore takes strong principled position on the Straits of Hormuz

 

8 min clip on why Americans are against the illegal war against Iran and against all the war crimes being committed by the Trump regime. Many Americans are so aghast of what the regime is doing, behaving like terrorists, might is right, violating all principles of International Law and moral codes.

Singapore won't negotiate for passage through Strait of Hormuz as 'matter of principle' as reported in the Straits Times. This is the first time that Singapore made a statement based on principles on the killing of Iranians by the American and Israeli terrorists in Iran...though not on the killing but on free passage through the Strait. This is more important than the lives of Iranians. Singaporeans are obviously proud of Singapore's stand on this issue, just like Singapore's stand on the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The missing piece is when Singapore is going to condemn and sanction America and Israel based on principles, like sanctioning Russia. Singaporeans would definitely be fully behind the govt to take another brave principled stand. Oops, cannot say that for the Anglophiles, they are behind the American and Israeli terrorists.

How would this principled statement by Vivian affect Singapore's interests? Singapore's principled statement and sanction against Russia have its consequences and Singapore is now living with them bravely and quietly. Some have the view that it was best for Singapore to shut up when big powers are fighting, principle or no principle, whether Singapore opens its mouth or not, nothing changes. In this case it is the same, better to shut up than to open the mouth. Singapore has nothing to gain, only to live with the negative consequences. If Singapore did not open its mouth, the worse consequence to suffer is constipation, when the shit could not get out.

In the bombing and killing of Iranians, there are many principles violated that Singapore chose to keep quiet, why spoke out on the Strait, why now? The invasion of Iran and killing of Iranians are many time more serious than the closing of the Strait. Violation of international laws, violation of national sovereignty, war crimes etc are very serious crimes.  By speaking out on the closing of the Strait, does it help in anyway should America decide to close the Strait of Malacca or the Strait of Singapore?

Apparently Singapore has forgotten the debacle for speaking out against Russia and sanctioning Russia. The Americans have lifted their sanctions on Russian oil. Would Singapore be doing so as well, against its principled position? Why must Singapore poke its little thing into a vice between two or more superpowers? What is Singapore's benefit against its policies of pragmatism? Would Singapore die or suffer consequences by not opening its mouth?

When the world is full of hypocrisies, when taking principled position is a suka suka option, not a consistent policy, when violation of international law is the norm of terrorist states, would it be better to behave like a small state, know where its proper place in international politics? Is there any country in the world clapping for Singapore's principled stand? Is such grandstanding necessary or even useful?