Covid19 - Exaggeration or underestimation of risks

At the time of writing, there were more than 70,500 confirmed cases and over 1,700 deaths globally. Yet, these numbers are a far cry from the H1N1 epidemic which saw more than 760 million cases and over 284,000 deaths between 2009 and 2010.

Even the common flu causes as many as 5 million cases of severe illnesses and half a million deaths in a typical year of seasonal outbreaks in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The case-fatality rate of the COVID-19 appears to be about 2 per cent of all cases, and lower for cases outside of China,which is lower than that of the SARS outbreak from 2002 to 2003 of almost 10 per cent.
Compared to these numbers, the COVID-19 should not be a cause for panic. Yet, the reaction to mainstream media reporting on the virus seems disproportionate....

This heightened public concern in the case of the COVID-19 may seem baffling given its relatively low number of fatalities compared to other viruses. But risk psychologists argue that this reaction is, in fact, expected because individuals’ risk perception tends to be guided by cognitive short-cuts such as the “memorability heuristic”.... CNA

The above is from an article in the CNA on a report by researchers from the NUS-Lloyd’s Registration Foundation Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk (IPUR). It it timely to educate the public on the power of the media and the power of certain people or parties that have different agenda to hype about this Covid19 epidemic.  Is the risk of the Covid19 exaggerated in this case?

By now we have reasonable data to show how serious this Covid19 is compares to H1N1 and SARS. The situation in South Korea seems out of control. Italy and Japan are two candidates, including Iran that may be the next centre of Covid19 explosion. We are lucky and well managed to contain our spread. We have two days of only 1 new case and a day of 2, excluding an imported case from Wuha. Yesterday we have 0 case.

At this point we may breath a sigh of relief that it is not that serious after all in Singapore, or it is, or could it be worse? Many may have taken for granted that the spread is being contained but forgotten that had China not locked down a few major cities, the spread could be horrendous given what we have seen earlier. The immediate locked down of Wuhan and a few Chinese cities have arrested the spread and kept a lid on this epidemic and today we may gloat that it is not that serious. What if China has not locked down its cities, how widespread would this Covid19 be? A few hundred million infected cases?

On the other hand the Americans have been crying hell and screaming about how dangerous this covid19 is and still blaming China for all sorts of stupid reasons and allegations. They took the lead to ban Chinese citizens from entering America and cancelling many flights, in a way cutting off people travelling between the two states. A few western countries like Australia quickly followed suit. Over reaction, over exaggeration? Did the Americans know something that the world did not, that this Covid19 is not just like a common cold and could be like H1N1 and spread around the world like H1N1, infecting millions of people and causing more deaths that what we are seeing today? Trump is furious for the return of infected Americans on cruise ships. Why?

With two sides of the coins in our face, have we over exaggerated or underestimated this Covid19 virus? Would the govt think that hey, this is not really a problem, can be easily handled and we can still go about increasing our population to 6.9m, to 10m, to 20m? Singapore has no fear of a virus or disease epidemic, we can control and manage them and we can have our cake and eat it too?

The initial contact of this virus were in the churches, a shop and a hotel. What if the initial contact was in a jam pack train? What would the scenario be like? How would the contact tracing effort be like to trace people from a moving train?  Would the seriousness of this epidemic be underestimated and all caution thrown to the wind and the govt continues to press on with its open leg immigration policy to increase the population by another few millions? Can Singapore risk an epidemic of this nature and survive or be totally wiped out in a matter of months?

Lets hope our super talented millionaire ministers would take a step back and think carefully about such an epidemic and do not underestimate the risks involved and our survival as a congested city state of 6.9m or 10m or 20m.

Uriah Heep - an American weapons system expert view on the Wuhan Epidemic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jmhj-vnl5E.

This is a very informative discussion on the Wuhan Epidemic by an expert with indepth knowledge of what biological warfare is all about. It is a bit long, 53 mins. The more important part of the discussion comes in the second half of the video. View it to get an understanding of what is going on.

For those who still did not get it, especially the silly yellow skin bananas, listen to this man Uriah Heep. He has been there and done it. And he is an American, working in the highly sensitive military complex before his retirement for 30/40 years. In his interview he has carefully and clearly put the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle together to reveal the true picture of what this coronavirus attack in Wuhan is all about.

This is biological warfare 101! The Chinese govt may not say it but is dealing with it at this level and seriousness. No country has ever done a lockdown on a 11m people city. No country has locked down a province of nearly 100m population. And Wuhan is not the only city that is being locked down. Many Chinese cities are being locked down. This is apocalyse in China. China is treating this as a declaration of war.

Uriah Heep's warning, do not play with fire. Just wait for the counter attack, like a Ghengis Khan invasion. China is preparing for it and it will come, just like Pearl Harbour and its aftermath when Japan was hit by two atom bombs. The world is entering World War 3, started by the sicko American leaders led by Trump and his neocons and warhawks.

Be prepared and be warned.

PS. Imagine if the death number is as predicted by the Bill and Melinda Gates simulation, 65m death! Would China hesitate and muddle on what actions to take, trying to second guess if this is war and who did it? Or would China just press the red buttons and release all its nuclear weapons?  This is how dangerous this vicious game is all about. It could lead to end time.

Lucky Singapore - Another LKY is born

Singapore—Despite the negative feedback that emerged after the leaked audio recording of Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing at a recent closed-door meeting with the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCCI), many netizens are now saying they respect him more than ever for the frank and forthright manner with which he spoke. For them, the diplomatic bluntness from Mr Chan was both refreshing and relatable, and they say he is another Lee Kuan Yew, the country’s founding Prime Minister. 

“He is a good minister. He is indeed another Lee Kuan Yew for he dares to say things as they are, in an honest manner.”....

In the recording of the meeting he can be heard saying such things as “Why did the run happen? You know, run on the supermarket, right? …I damn ashamed. You know why? Xia suay… We embarrass ourselves, disgraceful, we disgrace ourselves… No paper, water also can. So why do we behave so idiotically? I cannot tahan. Then the selfish idiot go and take all the alcohol swab, because got no more clean wipe right?”....

The above is quoted from www.theindependent.sg. The leaked video of Chan Chun Sing's closed door talk with leaders of SCCCI is one of the favourite to be passed around in the social media and in whatsapp and phone messages. It should have been seen by at lease a million by now.

Lim Tean and some critics have been disgusted by the colloquialism and Singlish being used by Chan Chun Sing in his very frank discussion at the SCCCI. To this group of critics, a PM potential and a minister earmarked to be a PM, they expected him to speak in proper and good English, not chap chye English or Singlish mixed with all kinds colloquialism and dialects.

On the other hand there is another group that is praising him for his frank talk and enjoying his humour for talking like an Ah Beng in the army. They found him refreshing and welcome his straight talking and the courage to scold Singaporeans. And some even equated him to LKY for honesty and frankness to say what he thought. 

OK, some may not agree with this comment and may think it is an insult to LKY. But to those who see the LKY in Chan Chun Sing, they must be very happy that Singapore has produced another LKY and Singapore's future is going to be better, tomorrow will be better for all Singaporeans. LKY believed in improving the lives of Singaporeans, not foreigners or fake Singaporeans, not fair weather migrants that would scoot to the West immediately after getting their pink ICs or the moment something unpleasant happens to Singapore.

Let's see if the hope of this group of Singaporeans would be realised in the coming years when the new LKY becomes the PM of Singapore. Some may disagree and may want to add stupidity has no cure to this view.  It is a matter of opinion.

MH370 - Abbott talking rubbish again, what is he up to?

PERTH, Australia (AP) — Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has said the “top levels” of the Malaysian government long suspected that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 almost six years ago was a mass murder-suicide by the pilot.
Abbott was prime minister when the plane carrying 239 people vanished on March 8, 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Australia, working on Malaysia's behalf, coordinated what became the largest search in aviation history, but it failed to find the plane before being ended in 2017.

Speaking in a Sky News documentary to air on Wednesday and Thursday, Abbott said high-ranking Malaysian officials believed veteran pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah deliberately downed the jet.
“My very clear understanding, from the very top levels of the Malaysian government, is that from very, very early on, they thought it was murder-suicide by the pilot,” said Abbott, who was Australia’s prime minster from 2013 to 2015.

“I'm not going to say who said what to whom, but let me reiterate, I want to be absolutely crystal clear, it was understood at the highest levels that this was almost certainly murder-suicide by the pilot.”

In response, Malaysia's former prime minister and police chief said there was no conclusive proof of pilot suicide.

Former Prime Minister Najib Razak told the Free Malaysia Today online news portal that a possible pilot suicide was never ruled out but it would be “unfair and legally irresponsible" to pin the blame on Zaharie as the black boxes had not been found. YahooNews

Tony Abbott was the first joker that called Najib to tell him that MH370 had been flown to the Antartic Ocean. He was damn bloody sure that he had to pick up the phone to call Najib in the first instance. Eventually everyone was led on a wild goose chase, wasting hundreds of millions of dollars and precious time looking at the wrong place.

Today he is as good as saying the Malaysian ministers at the very top were all fools and already made their judgement in the early days of the disappearance of MH370 and blaming on the pilot. The rest of the above article showed that the Malaysians were not sure as nothing was found, no debris, no wreckage, no dead bodies.

What is the purpose of this Abbott for coming out today to talk nonsense about the Malaysian leaders? Why did he found it necessary to tell Najib that the aircraft was flown to the Antartic? This man is obviously up to something no good. His comments on the thinking of Malaysian leaders is mischievous.

The evil doers that did what they did to the MH370 and the lives of more than 200 people on board are still out there laughing at the stupidity of the whole episode and probably thanking Abbott for misleading the world in a search going nowhere. Abbott has yet to disclose who told him MH370 was flying to the Antartic and why he had to call Najib to tell him that story. And today, why is he opening his big mouth again on this sad episode?

Covid19 seems well under control in Singapore

SINGAPORE: The real estate company behind the Seletar Aerospace Heights work sites linked to five cases of COVID-19 "immediately halted construction" after it was notified of the first confirmed case on Feb 9.
Boustead Projects confirmed in a media release on Tuesday (Feb 18) that the five Bangladeshi Work Pass holders - identified as Cases 42, 47, 52, 56 and 69 by the Ministry of Health (MOH) - are all workers under the company’s subcontractors.... CNA

WHO has praised Singapore for its effort and system in controlling the spread of Covid19 in the island. The contact tracing team and the medical workers have done an excellent job in keeping things manageable. In the above CNA report, the company Boustead, whose employees have been fought to be infected did the necessary to halt construction work in its site and to do the decontamination and cleaning work.

The Chinese health food shop Yong Thai Hang, the Grand Hyatt and the DBS case did not seem to be spreading and are looking good. The only case that is a bit worrying is the Grace Assembly of God church, it is producing the biggest cluster of infected persons, 21 in total. If this case can be contained with new cases limited and getting fewer, the situation here could be improving.

We had a day when local infection was down to 1 case, plus 1 imported case of a child that was repatriated from Wuhan. It was unfortunate that the number has gone back up to 4 yesterday, with 3 coming from the Grace Assembly church and 1 connected member of the DBS case. Today new infected cases are 3, 2 from Grace Assembly church and one from Life church.

Let's hope things would not go further down. Those under quarantine are getting lesser and doing well. Those recovered and returned home are also on the rise. Both a good sign. The first foreign case from Wuhan has fully recovered and out of hospital.

Team Singapore, keep up the good work. At the rate it is going, we could return to Yellow and then to normal life soon.