GE2015 – The Mathematician won

A mathematician is more powerful than a magician. David Copperfield could create illusions but these are temporary effects of deception, not permanent. The number game of the mathematicians is real if they are playing with real numbers. This GE is won by the mathematicians doing just that.

There were some numbers being thrown around on the impact of new citizens. I received a figure of 280,000 new citizens. If I can recall correctly, it was reported that the number of voters increased from 2.1m to 2.4m, this is close enough to the 280,000 new citizens plus some locals. The percentage increased of new citizens in the electorate is thus 15% approximate.

To simplify the computation for the GE where there is a 10% swing towards the PAP or a 10% loss from the opposition camp, let me use the 60:40 formula to show how the results finally added up. In a constituency of 100,000 voters, assuming the percentage of votes was 60% and 40% in 2011, if the voters still voted for the respective parties, the result would now be 65% and 35%, that is if all the new citizens voted on the side of the 60%. It the new citizens voted for the 40%, the result would be 52% and 48%.

From the above, if the PAP got 60% in the last election, it should be getting 65% and a 40% vote for the opposition then would become 35%. On the reverse, if the WP got 60% then, its votes would now be 52% and the PAP should be 48%. Aljunied fits like a glove.

If I used a 20% increase of new citizens instead of 15%, the numbers would be 67%/33% and 50%/50% respectively. By applying this 15% increase of new citizen votes to every constituency, other that a few results with bigger swings due to factors like PGP, subsidies, etc, it is almost as perfect as you can get. The mathematician got it all worked out. A 15% increase in new citizens will win this election.

The voting pattern of the voters did not change much.  They did not turn against the opposition parties. They voted almost like the last GE but the result is totally different from the additional votes due to the new citizens. See how important the number of new citizens played in this GE?

Yes, the Mathematician won.

PS. Please don’t blame the Singaporeans for chasing after meats thrown at them. They did not. Using the same 60:40 formula, the 30% hard core pro opposition percentage would fall to 26% with a 15% increase in new citizens. And no, the theory that the voters voted for the PAP for fear of kicking them out is rubbish. The voters still supported their respective parties. It is the new citizen factor that changed the result of this GE. And you can expect more new citizens to be added to keep them voting for the PAP in future election.

The big question, how to stop the inflow of new citizens at such huge numbers not to change the pattern and result of future GEs.

PAP routs the opposition

In a watershed election of a different kind, the PAP was expected to lose more grounds to the opposition and at least a few more GRCs, with the tabled turned. No the table was not turned, the table was flipped over. PAP scored a landslide victory that borders an event in the twilight zone. In an unexplanable way, not only that no additional GRC was lost to the opposition, the PAP had a clean sweep of all the SMCs. And to make it more heady, the wining margins were in the high 70s, like 79%, 78%, &77% and so on. The opposition ended with 30% or less popular votes. The overall popular votes for the PAP rose from 60% to 70%. Can you believe that? David Copperfield would not be able to do that for sure. With parliamentary seats increased from 87 to 89, PAP has won 83 seats leaving the opposition with 6, one GRC in Aljunied and one SMC in Hougang.

The above is a summary of the ground shift in favour of the PAP. Some in the anti opposition camp find the result hard to believe, too good to be true. But that is the result at the end of the GE. The jubilation must have seen people flooding the streets last night to celebrate this great victory, this joyous occasion for a better future for the Singaporeans. I went to bed early when the writing was on the wall and did not stay to watch the happy mood of people on the streets. It should be. I could still remember the scene and the celebration when Hougang fell. The people were delirious and truly happy with that victory. And with this massive win by the PAP, the joy of a triumphant victory must be shared by the supporters and voters that gave the PAP this overwhelming win. If the result is for the opposition, this is what could be expected with the supporters running wild in high spirits, beating the gongs and popping champagne.

The turn of event took everyone by surprise. The team of analysts in CNA in a live broadcast was shocked. You could see their expression and body language. They came mentally prepared to talk about a seismic shift towards the opposition but were  rattled by the results.

Look at the events prior to the GE. All the signs were showing the other way. The turnouts at the rallies, the people, strangers and friends and their anti PAP views, the string of bad policies, of course the PGP, the MedishieldLife, the new citizens and some big moves by the PAP could tilt the balance, the anger expressed in social media and in every kopitiams, what had happened that could produce such a shocking result?

The PAP did not only win over the 40% of the swing votes. They even ate into the 30% hardcore anti PAP voters’ share. With above 70% to 79%, it means the hardcore anti PAP voters is now less than 30% in some constituencies will some falling to as low as 20%. The big picture, every 10 citizens, 7 voted for the PAP.  And in 3 GRCs the PAP did not even bother to hold any rallies for fear that no one would turn up. This is why many find it hard to believe, a black swan event.

I threw all the data into my computer for an answer. I left it on to crank non stop for one whole night. This morning my computer room was filled with smoke with the computer screaming, ‘Help, I can’t find the answer, Turn me off’. Even the computer had problem trying to figure out the change. It is pointless to list out all the but’s and the why’s. Maybe over the next few days I will get into the mood to talk about it more. In the meantime, the daft Singaporeans have voted. Oops, oannot call them daft. How can daft people vote so consistently and confidently for a one party to rule them with a blank cheque, to do as it likes, to continue with policies that they were strongly against? The voters must be smart and knew what they were doing. They cannot be daft, unless it is a classic case of The Singapore Syndrome.

One PAP supporter called Raymond had this to say, ‘You LOSERS never stood a chance! :) :) :) I'm elated and it's gonna be a beautiful day tomorrow. :) :)’ Did he know something that the losers did not?  I also agree with him that the winners should have the last laugh. And he did have a good laugh at the losers, ‘I just came by to say... 

HAHHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHHHAA.... :) :) :)

GE2015 – PAP looking for a landslide victory

At 10.30 pm, with several of the sample GRC results in, and all the SMC results, PAP is looking for a near clean sweep in this GE. A tsunami is building up but not what many in the social media are expecting. PAP is going to win big, a stunning win that nobody was expecting or at least in the opposition camp. From the samples, many were showing PAP winning by more than 70%, some in the high 70s, unbelieveable but that is the situation as it is now. With the TV commentators saying that such results have a maximum error of 4%, a near clean sweep is awaiting the PAP and with a huge margin.

Many people expecting a dramatic result with the PAP losing several GRCs are simply stunned. I too. What is happening? With so many unpopular and flawed policies, with so much anger on the ground, the result is showing exactly the opposite. Another miracle is happening, with the PAP winning a GE with a result that no one believed could happen in a democratic system. This kind of winning margin can only happen in a totalitarian state or a totally rigged election in the 3^rd World countries. PAP is going to prove the whole world wrong, that in a democratic system, a popular party can win with more than 70% of the popular vote. You must believe it.

The result will show that the PAP of today is even more popular than the PAP of LKY with the people fully behind it. It means that the people agree with most of the policies of the PAP and PAP can look forward to remain in power till SG100.

Many people must still be scratching their heads. It is a nightmare to those looking for a big upset against the PAP. No, it is going to be sweet victory to the PAP. Chew on it, dream on it, but this is the preliminary result so far and likely to be by the time the result is finalized.

Can one call this a freak election or a miracle election? By morning tomorrow the sandstorm would have settled and the people, especially those expecting a change in favour of the opposition would have to resign to their fate. The PAP is the party in power and with a stronger mandate and would be doing what they are doing with the approval of a bigger majority of the people.

I am still shock and puzzled. Will look at the picture again tomorrow. 

PS. The bookies are going to lose their pants.

Polling Day

I was an agent this morning to observe the voting processes in a polling station. Got a first hand look at how a polling station was running and the polling station officers going about their duties. I must congratulate the Elections Dept for a job well done. The officers were all very well trained and know what they were supposed to do and conducted themselves very professionally.

I arrived before 7.30am and everything had already been set up and ready to go. By 7.45am they started to seal the ballot boxes, made of cardboards with two open slots for dropping the poll cards. The boxes were checked and carefully sealed with the seals of the Elections Dept. The civil servants from various ministries did all the necessaries and by 8 am sharp it was open for business, and everything went on smoothly in the spacious canteen of a primary school. Nothing could possibly go wrong with so many officers and voters streaming in.

There were already some early birds waiting outside the polling station way before 7.30am. They could not get in before 8am. I walked through the gate only to be stopped by the school’s security guards. I told them I was a polling agent but they were like deaf, pre conditioned to tell everyone to wait outside. I had to tell them I need to be in to watch the sealing of the ballot boxes and only then did they understand who I was, a polling agent.

I went in, met the officers in charge, showed them my authorization letter as a polling agent and was issued with a pass to hang on my chest. After a short briefing and queries on the do’s and don’ts, I was shown where I would be sitting to watch the whole process of voters casting their votes.

As I said, everything was as flawless as it could be and with the helpful officers all waiting to assist, it was smooth flowing. I have never seen so many seniors on wheelchairs in a single morning. They kept coming in, pushed in by the polling station officers. I was asked to witness a wheelchair bound voter that refused to mark the card and the Asst Returning Officer, after confirmation with the polling agents present, and asking the voter a few times to make sure that was her intention, finally dropped the blank vote into the box. There were several seniors that should not be there but were there, wheeled into the station by their family members. Their mind was far from lucid and could hardly know what they were doing. The family members with them just went through the motion and dropped blank votes into the box.

I was told that after the end of the election a polling agent from each candidate/party would follow the coach with the sealed boxes to the counting stations. This process would rule out or greatly minimize whatever mischiefs that were speculating in the rumour mills. With all parties represented by their trusted polling agents, the journey from the polling stations to the counting stations should be safe in the company and under the watchful eyes of so many officers in the coach. It would be unduly difficult for hanky panky affairs in their presence even if a polling agent turned out to be a mole. Not really easy to do mischief inside the coach on its way to the counting stations, very remote.

The whole voting process is as transparent as it could be and conducted in the best possible ways under the watchful eyes of many officers including those from the candidates’ parties. Any room for error or monkey business could then be left in the counting stations How the votes are counted, how spoilt votes are declared void etc etc there seem to be some room for discretions and human errors, intentional or other wise. The impression I have is that most of the problems are likely to occur during counting and after counting, recounting. And that is where all the fighting would occur to make a few votes more or less counts. The counting agents could play a vital role when the real hustle begins inside the counting stations.

In the next few hours, the fortune of Singapore will change, could change dramatically, or going down the same path under the PAP. The fate of Singaporeans are in the process of being cooked now.

SG2015 – New kids on the block

The 9 days of hustings in this GE have thrown up a few new faces that would likely to create waves when the results are known on Saturday morning and the next decades to come. Two of the greatest finds happened to be from the SDP in Chee Soon Juan and Paul Tambyah.  Chee Soon Juan, the come back kid, has endeared himself with the crowd that turned up at the SDP rally. And the crowd size kept growing till the final night of the rally at Clementi Avenue 6. The muddy field did not stop them from coming and the reception was befitting of a politician thrown into the wilderness and coming back in glory. The crowd simply loved him, for his oratory, for his sincerity despite efforts to demonise him, to share the pains he had to go through with his wife and children. For several nights, the crowd stayed back for him to autograph his books, waiting for hours, waiting patiently in long winding queues. The force is with him, with the people standing with him. No more is Chee Soon Juan the feared, and the leper he was made out to be. They see in him a potential PM in waiting. The signs are all favourable for this man like the stars in alignment.

Standing closely on his side is Paul Tambyah, a man that could easily be another minister in the PAP cabinet. Tambyah spoke about the sufferings of the common man in an area that he knew best, healthcare. He spoke in a calm and professor like manner unlike some behaving like hooligans and gangsters. The crowd listened to him intently and appreciated what this man was all about, a very good man needed to speak in Parliament for the people. They trusted and liked him. They see another good man speaking out for the people, with all honesty and integrity, very real, no bunkum.

The WP also has a few pleasant surprises in Daniel Goh and Leon Perera. Both were of the same generic DNA that the PAP sort after. They were eloquent and sincere men that have stepped forward on their own to join the opposition camp, not waiting to be invited for tea. And there is Cambridge graduate He Ting Ru, another young lady in the likes of Nicole Seah. These three candidates could be the shining stars of the WP if given more time, exposure and coverage by the media for what they deserved. They provide depth to the leadership in the WP and augur well for the party. It was unfortunate that not much coverage was given to them, but that cannot deny them for showing their potential that could only grow and blossom in the near future.

Another very strong candidate is Lim Tean from the NSP. This is a man that exudes leadership, well articulate and has a commanding voice to go along. People like to listen to him. How could the PAP miss him when he is in the right industry that the PAP often seen digging into, a lawyer? PAP’s lost is the opposition’s gain. This man would go far if he is in a stronger party. This round NSP is troubled by a lot of resignations and negative news that put a question mark on the credibility of the party and its future well being. In the WP or SDP camp, Lim Tean would be a force to contend with and likely to waltz into Parliament.

The SingFirst has its two kingpins in Tan Jee Say and Ang Yong Guan, two second time veterans that are quite well respected.

In the PAP camp, there were a few promising newcomers in Ng Chee Meng, Mervin Yong, and Chee Hong Tat. It was a pity that their presence was not felt, more likely because the party is too big and there are still too many ministers calling the shot with a few ahead of them trying hard to impress. They were given too little exposure to be on the spotlight. Their speeches were not of the same stuff as the opposition camp that could arouse the emotions of the crowd. Could they do better if they were speaking from the other side of the camp? They were touted as ministerial material in the same group as Chan Chun Sing, Tan Chuan Jin and Lawrence Wong. Maybe they were simply out shone by the veterans in the PAP that are still dominating the stage.  Maybe they were given too little to show how good they are or could be. None of them really stood out on their own as exceptional and worth listening to, to draw the crowd, to mesmerize the crowd like the great leaders they are expected to be.

Other than the veterans that could still hold the attention of the crowd, the top crowd pullers among the new kids that really made a difference must be Chee Soon Juan and Paul Tambyah. Many are hoping and wanting them to be in Parliament. Would that be the case? Whatever, they have made their presence felt in the last 9 days of election rallies on stage.