GE2015 Results – A hopeful assessment

On the morning of 12 Sep PAP is likely to be returned to power but with a smaller majority. On a fairly hopeful estimate, PAP should still end up with 63 seats with 26 seats going to the opposition. Among the likely GRCs to go will be Aljunied, East Coast, Marine Parade, Tanjong Pagar and Holland Bukit Timah. For the SMC, Huogang and Punggol East will stay with the WP plus Fengshan, MacPherson, Mountbatten and Potong Pasir joining the opposition camp.

There are a few borderline GRCs that could go either way. Ang Mo Kio, Tampines, West Coast and Chua Chu Kang have a slim outsider chance to go the other way if there is a strong swing in favour of the opposition. So too were a few SMCs like Bukit Panjang, Sengkang West and Yuhua.  Assuming luck is on the opposition side and half of these were to go, that would add another 11 seats to the 26 to make 37, still far short of the 50% mark.

Short of a miracle or ground swell, PAP will still be returned to Parliament with a comfortable majority though a bit painful for losing quite a number of ministers along the way. The people can look forward for more good years with the PAP charting the course towards SG100 and 10m population with more foreign talents. It would still be a good fight for the opposition for proving that going forward the PAP can only become weaker and weaker and the 2020 GE is likely to see a real change when more able people would come forward to join the opposition camp encouraged by what they see in this GE.

It is not so easy to remove a party that has been entrenched in power for 50 years unless there is a miracle, like a tsunami. This can only happen when the people lost trust in the PAP.  Would this happen in this GE? If it does, the final result would be totally different and a new govt will be installed.

PAP – What is happening?

The most recognizable political brand, the most respected and trusted brand for the past 50 years, has turned into a brand that is being hated in some corners of the island. Its election posters have been torn, sprayed painted and according to Victor Lye, thrown into a bin used for burning joss papers in the ghost festival month. And his personal encounters were not pleasant. He had been told to get lost, received angry stares and hostile remarks that he and his PAP team are not wanted in Aljunied.

It must all be because of the people’s fault, ungrateful. How can they treat the PAP team like that? Or is it the WP’s fault? It cannot be the fault of the PAP right? The PAP has been taking so good care of the people, treating the people so fairly, even in opposition wards, how can it be the fault of the PAP?

It cannot be the leaders of PAP, all flawless men and women, selfless and working for the people’s interest. It cannot be the policies as all policies are for the good of Singaporeans. I am now so lost as to why the people of Aljunied are so hostile to the PAP team. They never paste stamp on their eyes?

What is happening?

Ang Mo Kio GRC – The chips in play

Hsien Loong is going to face his strongest critics in Roy Ngerng and in a way M Ravi and Gilbert Goh on his policies in a battle that all eyes will be watching. Now what has Hsien Loong got on his aside against a team led by 3 celebrities in their own right, 3 people’s champion on CPF, human rights and PMETs. He still retains some of the previous team in Intan, Ang Hin Kee and Gan Thiam Poh. Other than Intan who has gained fame and recognition in the wrong way in the Yang Yin affair, the other two are just what they are, just MPs. Newcomer David Daryl is well recognized as a TV host and a newbie in politics and may have some boyish charm to boot. As for Koh Poh Koon, the son of Punggol, the overplay of him being of Punggol and wanting to serve Punggol but now flipping over to Ang Mo Kio may be a let down. Would he be calling himself and Ang Mo Kia now?

Overall, Hsien Loong is likely to be fighting the battle himself and would have to draw deeply into his own pulling power to make a difference. Being the son of LKY may help to some extent given the outpouring of grief during his father’s funeral. There is really nothing much he could fall back on from his team and it is more likely that they will hang on to his tailcoat and hoping for an easy ride to parliament. This is turning out to be something they have not expected, especially in the case of the son of Punggol. Ang Mo Kio is no longer an easy and safe ward to take a ride.

The 3 champions from the Reform Party would have their own followers and fans. How big is this following is untested. What is going to be on their side will be the pet issues each of them represented. CPF money is going to play a big part on the emotions of the voters. Remember, when it hurts the pocket, it hurts deeply. If Roy can play this up to his advantage, whether the voters are PAP or anti PAP, Roy is fighting for their money. This issue alone may tip the scale.

And if it does not carry enough weight, the displaced PMETs and their families, hurt badly by the govt’s reckless policy to bring in foreigners to take their jobs could just add enough weight to sink the sampan in Ang Mo Kio. Those who are against death penalties, the human rights supporters would be on Ravi’s side for sure.

These are 3 major issues that the Hsien Loong has no answers to except to deflect as much as he can. And there are a lot of more of hot button issues other than these to stir the crowd.  Reform Party does not have to face any accusation of incompetence in running town councils and this bullet would be ineffective.

What can the Hsien Loong team used to take the initiative from the 3 champions? How able calling them mad, losers, irresponsible or whatever tags to tag on them? Would the tag or branding work? Many people still believe in Roy and Ravi. Gilbert is on safe ground. Many people are ready to bankroll Roy in his fight against Hsien Loong on the CPF issue.

One thing for sure, Hsien Loong would have to work for his money this time. This is no cake walk. Hsien Loong would be on the defensive from the word go. The final result is going to be very unpredictable. To say that Hsien Loong may be in for a thrashing is not too far fetch even if he is the incumbent PM, the son of LKY. The odds should still be in Hsien Loong’s favour unless the pain of CPF money being ‘tangkap’ is unbearable and will make the difference.

And don’t forget that Hsien Loong’s team is made up of flawless men and women without a black mark in their lives. The Reform Party candidates are the normal average Singaporeans with many flaws and black marks like any ordinary men. It is not easy for ordinary men to compete with flawless and exceptionally clean men and women.

Boon Wan – No guarantee PAP will still be in power on 12 Sep

‘There is no safe seat where victory is assured. It is not a by elction where a PAP govt is intact. All 89 seats are being contested. We cannot be sure of a PAP govt on 12 Sep.’

The above statement by Boon Wan made headline in yesterday’s ST. The immediate to such a stark comment is, what is the purpose or what is the intent or motive to make such a remark? Is this an honest assessment of the position in the GE? In many ways it is a fair statement. Never in the history of the PAP since it was entrenched as the single dominant political party in the country has it gone to a GE with no safe seats. It used to be confident of winning at least 75% of the seats in every GE and even confirmed to be the govt when nomination closed.

Today the PAP is facing very serious and credible challenges from the opposition with equally good and serious candidates to take on the PAP. They are no pushovers. PAP ministers are no winners and many are liabilities. This is how the cards are being stacked. The possibility of the PAP winning by a small margin or even losing its majority cannot be ruled out.

On the other hand the opposition camp is shouting fear mongering. The PAP is playing on fear and scare tactics to win over voters sitting on the fence and did not want to see the PAP out of power. There are also elements of truth in this view. And Boon Wan’s subsequent comments confirmed this. He warned the voters not to play with their votes and find themselves with a weak govt. He warned them of the severe and tragic consequences if PAP is going to form a weak govt or not at all. He is striking fear in the people to vote PAP.

Both views are as real and truthful as you can get. The PAP is not the same PAP as before and not longer has the absolute trust of the people. The PAP has proven to be capable of making many foul ups and policies with serious consequences on the lives of the people. The PAP as been seen as one that made all the fouls ups but claimed credit for stop gap measures and solutions to patch up their mistakes. And there are still many serious policies in place and would be accelerated once they get the same mandate to do as they pleased. And treating the people as daft with their fake and flimsy excuses, like such fear tactics or the people can have opposition voice in parliament in the form of NMPs and NCMPs, and to continue flouting it as a good thing is such too condescending. The people are not daft and may would be offended by being treated as unthinking children.

Yes, there is a reasonable probability that the PAP would be routed in this GE. They would not be able to get a clean sweep as they did before and many seats will fall. And the fear mongering tactic is again adopted to attempt to steer the swing votes back to the PAP.

Would it work? Would the PAP still win the same kind of mandate or be history? The people, the thinking voters, not the daft voters, would make a difference in the fate of the PAP. Keep thinking that the people are daft and treating them as daft and the result will reflect this mentality, whether the PAP is daft or the people are daft.

Malaysia – Pro Malay Rights Protest 16 Sep

A pro Malay Rights group is organizing this protest on Wed 16 Sep. The protestors will be wearing red and have been reported to be practicing and demonstrating martial arts and fighting skills in the main media. They showed their prowess in breaking sticks and tiles.

The police are not giving approval to this protest citing security reasons. But the protestors said they would continue with the protest to be held in Chinese majority areas. UMNO leaders have said they would attend if invited.

Singaporeans are best advised to give Malaysia a miss on this day. Better to stay away as the signs are ominous.