“Today, the average per capita income of the Indian residing in the US is US$55,298. If Indians in India can achieve the same per capita income, the total GNP of India would be around US$71 trillion, making it the largest economy in the world, larger than the US at US$21 trillion, or China at US$15 trillion,” he explained.
“If this figure is unimaginable, let’s imagine that the average Indian in India is half as smart as the average Indian in the US. Then India would still have a GNP of US$35 trillion, still larger than that of the US at US$21 trillion and China at US$15 trillion.”
That is, Mahbubani took the average per capita income (US$55,298) of Indians residing in the US and multiply that by the population of India to arrive at the potential total GNP of India of about US$71 trillion. But India’s GNP today is only US$2.6 trillion.
Mahbubani, of course, is also assuming that while India’s GNP improves, US and China’s economies are standing still.
The above is from an article by Kishore Mahbubani posted in TOC on why he believed India could have a bigger economy than China. And he used statistics to prove it. I know many arts students are very bright, but when maths is concerned, when they try to use statistics, the brightness gets a bit dimmer.
His whole hypothesis is based on not only one 'if' but many 'ifs' and also on the choice of data that he used that is anything but realistic. If his statistics is even half as good as he wants the readers to believe, then the readers can also believe that elephants can fly.
The Indians in the USA are about the brightest of the Indians you can find. The top 1 or 3% of any population cannot be equated to the average 50% of the population, ceteris paribus, just like the wealth of top 1 to 3% richest men cannot be equated to the average wealth of the 50 percentile average men. It is not going to be a simple linear correlation. It is definitely not half, not even a quarter. The average Indians are not half as bright at the average Indian Americans.
Also, the average income of the Americans, American Indians, is in US$. The average income of Indians in India is in rupees. Then again, Kishore did not give a time frame but it is possible that one day, dunno when is this one day, the average income of an India Indian could be that of an average Indian American today. And when that day comes, dunno what would be the average income of an American Indian or the average income of a Chinese would be. There are many moving variables and many, many ifs. The American and Chinese economies are not going to stand still for the Indian economy to catch up, though that is also a possibility.
Good try Kishore. It is a feel good opinion piece and many Indians would be very happy to hear what Kishore had to say.