Demographic growth determines the new economic powers

According to Dr Helen Qiao, the economist from Goldman Sach, China's rapid economic growth will peak by the end of this decade and subsequently decline. Her prediction is based on the dependency formula which shows the relationship between the number of dependents and that of the working population. China's one child policy will reduce this ratio and thus works towards its decline. Japan is facing the same problem and so are the old European countries. Countries that have low dependency ratio will go on a decline and vice versa, countries with a high dependency ratio, ie, more working populations than dependent population will do well. Extrapolating this relationship we can see the new emerging powers of the 21 Century. India will overtake China as it does not have a population control law to limit reproduction. Other countries that will also rise to become economic powers will be Indonesia, Malaysia and many African countries where population growth is nothing short of phenomenal. The higher the birth rate, the higher the potential for growth and sustainability. Singapore will also decline in double quick time as we are not reproducing ourselves fast enough. The more proactive Singaporeans should make plans to migrate to the higher growth countries quickly before the decline sets in. The first sector to be hit will be properties as there will be lesser new population to purchase properties, unless we keep importing more foreign talents.

Singapore's 50 Most Trusted Individuals

The Asian Reader's Digest conducted a poll on 760 Singaporeans and asked them who they trusted most. 50 individuals finally emerged as the top most trusted men and women in Singapore. They include a top judge, a top cop, ambassadors, doctors, businessmen and women and comedians. I did not see the full list but some prominent professionals of eminent Singaporeans did not make it to the list, eg lawyers, bankers and people from the finance industry etc. But most notable was the absence of politicians. I thought, my god, the people have no trust for their politicians. Then I read further and it said 'the general elections have proven the country's leaders already rank highly...' and thus were omitted. I don't know what this statement means. It would be interesting if politicians were also included to give the people an insight into how well regarded they were. Then again it will be quite pointless if we end up with a survey when the top 50 most trusted individuals were all politicians. It will be quite embarrassing to the other professions and individuals. It will be equally embarrassing if one or two politicians did not appear as these are the most honest and highly regarded individuals we can find in our country. Anyone not in the list could be a slap in the face. Another reason for the exclusion of politicians in the survey could be a kind of self censorship. Ranking politicians with the mortals is unbecoming and can be sensitive. Better stay away from controversy. Whatever the reasons, the reason given for their exclusion is the most enlighten one.

More BS in Marina Bay

MBS will be the number one tenant at Marina Bay. It will compete with RWS headon for the gamblers comes April 27. The Marina Bay is going to be an exciting locale. And one can expect more BS to move in and stake a claim to this prime land. DBS is likely to be there, maybe OBS and KBS too. CBS another potential. Then there are the IBS, RBS, SBS, and the UBS. Not forgetting that NBS will also be there. Now, what is NBS, No Bull Shit? Isn't it interesting that gamblers are now hot personalities and being courted everywhere, and some being flown in and driven by Rolls Royces to the resorts! Soon we will be reading more great stories about the exploits of gamblers and how much they made every minute they spent in the VIP rooms. And the greatest gambler of the island will soon come out from this resort in Changi to join the fray. Many Singapore students will write composition of what they want to be when they grow up, 'I want to be a gambler". Now the cool thing is not to be in the company of royalties and politicians but be seen with top notch gamblers.

We never learn1

Everyone seems to be blowing the property bubble and fanning it. High prices are good. We can hedge against inflation and our savings for old age. I don't believe people can be so simplistic. The series of repercussions and consequences are unimaginable when asset inflation leads to asset deflation. During the last financial crisis, many people went bust, bankrupt. Many lost their jobs, many could not service their mortgages, many properties were forced sold, many ended with negative assets. And of course many downgraded. Just because things were looking better, and the property prices have recovered, with some making profits and some lowering their losses, we should continue to blow the bubble. The next crisis can come even sooner than expected and the impact could be worst when the loans are getting bigger. 90% of our people lived in HDB flats. This is their home, the roof on their heads. When HDB flats become an element in the speculative circus of boom and bust, when it busts again, and serious enough, we are going to have many frustrated and angry people. And if they cannot afford to have the roof over their heads, we are going to have a real social problem of our own creation. As we keep feeding the unsatiable appetite of the developers and the speculators, we may want to ask why or what for? Making all those profits for what? To make developers and speculators rich and happy? To make foreigners coming here to swoop up the properties rich and happy? Our main concern, or the main concern of both the people and govt is good homes for the people. Not 'AFFORDABLE' homes that are not affordable. But looking at today's news, the two launches of BTO flats are 10 times oversubscribed, saying that they are indeed affordable. And is there a high demand or the demand is fictitious? Many of these buyers are still frightened that if they can't get one now, the next one will be more expensive. Many needed a home, genuine buyers, but the supply is coming in in drips and draps. If they don't register, no building of new flats. The frenzy to grab anything that is available is hot. Who dares to wait when the mantra is that property prices can only go up and up and away? I really hope that another big financial crisis hits us soon and this time people really learn that playing with people's homes and blowing the property bubble is dangerous and bad. The flat is the people's home and should not be a factor in the housing casino.

Racist director and racist movies

In the Life page of ST today, director Pierre Morel was accused of being racist by casting all his villains as Asians or Pakistanis or Eastern Europeans. His latest film From Paris With Love also have non whites as villians, including Chinese or Vietnamese I think. It is so funny really, to accuse a director for being racist just because he casts the heroes as Anglo Saxons and the badies as non whites. The non whites should be grateful for the roles and the doles he is offerring them. Come to think of it, they should go back to the 50s and 60s when movies were so wholesome and non racial. I particularly enjoy the great movies of how the West were won, with American cavalries always arriving in time to kill the bad Red Indians and save the European immigrants, their families and little children from being slaughtered. And they always have happy endings too, with the Red Indians either shot or fleeing into the prairies or having their wigwams burnt to the ground. Let's have more soldiers and Red Indians movies, more remakes and in grander scales. I am sure no one will complain about racism. And the Red Indian actors and actresses will be most happy with the jobs and doles. Provided they don't cast Europeans as Red Indians.

Is there a property bubble?

The commercial cum residential site at Choa Chu Kang and Woodlands junction fetched a cool $164m yesterday. Two years ago the bid was only $64m and not accepted. What does this tell? Cheap don't sell, no bubble? When is a bubble a bubble? As can be expected, there will be all kinds of definition of what and when a bubble is formed. For the moment, one can expect 90% of Singaporeans between 30 to 40 years and owning a property to be in debt of $200k to $1m. This is likely to be the bank borrowing to acquire their dream home, a roof over their heads. Presumably they are servicing their mortgages at 30% of their incomes. As long as the economy is running smoothly, no crisis or wars, they will have no problem paying their loans. When there is a crisis, two things could happen, one, losing their jobs, and two, property prices plunged. This double whammy will suddenly reveal that their properties are worth so much lesser in value, and they have no income to pay for their loans. Maybe then people will say, it was a bubble. At current prices, most properties are priced way too high and this will give them ample room to collapse when the time comes. The gap between the current price and the value it will settle is another measure of the balloon that has been built in. Inflated prices in good time and realistic prices when people will not dare to splurge. Do we have a bubble now? From $64m to $164m in two years! The developers will keep pushing the limits thinking that they can keep on charging more. And when in trouble, hoping that the govt will help them out so that they will not go bust. In the meantime who is going to help the people who need a roof over the head from having to pay a lifetime for it, at the prices the developers demand? Who is the profiteer or who is causing the price to shoot to the sky? Must be the developer lah.

BTO is the best system

Ho Geok Choo asked Mah Bow Tan whether HDB should return to the old system for flat application. Mah Bow Tan said negative. The BTO is the best system and it even reduced the waiting time from 7 or 8 years to the current 3 to 4 years. How can anyone argue against such logic? In the past the queue was 150,000 long and ended up with 31,000 surplus flats that needed 5 years to clear. Today we still have many times oversubcribed flats on launching but still not all flats are sold? How come? I think I can try to explain about the old system, the 150,000 queue and 31,000 surplus flats built. It was badly managed in the first place. There was genuine demand in the early stages when the baby boomers were starting to grow up and having families. And there was acute housing shortage. Of course some idiots allowed the flats to be overbuilt to the extend of 31,000 flats. If we have the talents like we have today, no such thing will happen. And the facts speak for itself. No more surpluses and more more 150,000 queue today. So Ho Geok Choo must have been satisfied that her question was answered. No more question. I ponder again on why there was no queue when a new launch was often oversubscribed many times over? Phantom buyers I think. And all the kpkb about young people not getting their flats are just false noises. What about those who could not afford to buy the affordable flats and thus never even make it to the application stage? Would they be considered as not applicable to the demand equation? What about those that were ruled out of the HDB scheme by virtue of their income, those exceeding $8k or $10k, or those who may meet the money criteria but because of their family commitments, could not afford to buy the flats they wanted to? These are not demands since they did not apply to HDB. And all the singles and those that cannot get together a family unit but still needing a place to stay, not part of the demand too? The BTO scheme is indeed very neat and clean. Those who for whatever reason, needing flats, but ruled out or cannot afford to, and never apply are not part of the demand and no need to bother or look at. So, since there are no application, so no demand and no need to build. Where got housing problem?

Another amazingly pro people and pro business budget

The budget is out and it is goodies time for all. Alright some will still sieve through it with a comb and nit pick at why no this and why no that. Overall, it is another angpow budget of at least $10b for the people. So, want to complain again? Where on earth is there a govt that always give angpows to the citizens? My only little concern is where is the money coming from? Our reserves or surplus profits from GIC and Temasek? After announcing mega billion losses and adding on another few hundred millions more recently, I think I can safely conclude that surplus from our investments can be KIV for a long long time to come. But money cannot come from nowhere. Can we expect to have another round of raising taxes, more ERPs, raising GST to help the people(in this case help first and raise later), more expensive public flats, more savings from our CPFs being set aside to fulfil the 'tan ku ku' fantasy? Unfortunately the answers are still over the horizon, maybe after the next general election. And the answers no need to 'tan ku ku'. Mesti akan datang.

High property prices no good!

Today I feel quite 'tulan'. Only on Sat I posted an article saying that high property prices good. This morning I read Mah Bow Tan saying high property prices no good. How can he disagree with me? And he said that he has some more things planned to curb property speculation and high prices. But there are good news for those who could not afford to buy HDB flats because of high prices. So far, no bubble has formed, despite the fact that anyone buying a property from HDB ten years ago will now see the same property appreciated by 200%, there is no bubble still. Well, good then, as this is due to normal price appreciation in a good economy, low interest rate and a confluence of other factors. But HDB is not going to go to sleep. It is doing a review to see what it should do to prevent speculation and bubble building. Hsien Loong has joined in the discussion by saying that HDB flats are not for speculation but a long term investment and for the buyers to live in, even to hand down to their children. Is this a policy statement? If it is, it will signal a major change in where public housing is heading. But he must get this message to the HDB first. Then hopefully, things will change and people will really be able to afford affordable HDB flats. I always cringe when I mention the word affordable. Probably developing a phobia for it. It sounds so cheap. By the way, the General Election is around the corner and maybe we have some real policy changes for the good of the people. And no changes after that.

Singaporeans are getting richer

I was reading Goh Meng Seng's latest post in which he quoted an official statistics that reads like this, 'The average household income from work had also risen from $4,238 in 2003 to $5,680 in 2008, reflecting the growing affluence of HDB households.' Isn't this good news, that the average household income was $5.680. Today, two years later, it should be more than $6,000. Singaporeans no need to go to the casino to shout 'huat ah!' They can now do it at home. My friend's household income in $9,000! Lagi huat. 6 pay checks, average about $1,500 each, and two more paychecks akan datang. That would put his household income to more than $10,000 when the youngest two children start working. Goh Meng Seng argued that the household income surge is due to children unable to buy HDB flats and are forced to stay with their parents, thus boosting household income higher. Tiok boh? With $9,000 or $10,000 household income, can start to buy private property liao. How come ah? Still staying in HDB flat.

The Wooden apology

Shall I call it the Wooden apology or the Tiger apology? After all it is all about the media and fancy news of the celebrities and a world of make beliefs. I did not watch the telecast and did not bother at all. It was after all his personal affair. It is big news alright for those who were his big fans and his sponsors. I was an admirer of Tiger Woods, the number one golfer, the world champion. What went wrong or what was wrong with Tiger Woods when what he did was quite normal actually, for someone in his shoes. And he is not alone. His indiscretion somehow came up quite shocking and disappointing to his fans. I think his main problem was that he lived under an image of a flawless man. He was just like a priest or more, godly, and perfect. It was too big an image for any man to take on. When he turned out to be just like another ordinary guy in his personal life, it was too much to bear. The truth hurts badly. It would be a different story if he had lived a life less pristine, less godly. No one seems to bother much about Mike Tyson or Bill Clinton or what some of the royalties did. As long as they don't pretend to be flawless, they are accepted as who they are. The disappoint comes when the flawless was found to be flawed. When you are white, a little spot or speck of dust is enough to damage the image. Tiger should best discard his wholesome boy next door image. Just be himself and live life. If his appetite cannot be satisfied, he is going to create more problems to himself if he tries to be otherwise. Donald Trump has the best advice for him. Just go play golf and be a world champion. Forget about living like a priest. He is very talented. His sponsors have a part to play in his spotlessly clean image. Don't they know that he wasn't?

High property prices good.

It is high only because our economy is doing well, an indicator of prosperity and also high wages. Why are there sudden measures to curb high property prices? We are receiving plenty of confusing and conflicting signals nowadays. One day good one day something else. Plenty of supply, no panic but panic building. Why are people, especially the young, still complaining when their salaries are also shooting to the stars? The only problem I can see is that while their salaries are heading for the stars, the prices of properties are reaching to another dimension, and they are continuously chasing and not getting near. Then again it is their fault because they are not talented enough to earn faster and more. The developers and speculators are always delirious when property prices are soaring. They have no responsibility to anyone except their own greed and profits. They will do anything to double or triple their profits at all cost. Who cares about the well being of the people in general. The bulk of the people just want a decent place to stay, a roof over their head that is affordable. I want to print this word in very small prints, 4 or 6 points. Cannot say it too loud. Otherwise people will scream that it is definitely AFFORDABLE. The govt has a very big responsibility for the well being of the majority of the average citizens. The rich and able will look after themselves and speculate in properties and all things to get richer. The small people in the middle are not so fortunate and could only depend on their Very High Salaries but not high enough to pay for the affordable flats and to get by. They cannot afford to chase the property prices dictated by the speculators and developers or the blameless, market forces. These innocent, and losers, will end up as bigger losers. The govt has a responsibility to take care of them by correct policies. Mindless market policies will definitely lead to disillusion among the masses and will alienate them to vote for a party that will look after their welfare. Govt has the choice of looking after whichever sector of the people they want to. They can choose to continue to feed the fat cows and they can choose to care for the lean goats. High property prices are good. Keep raising. Don't stop. Don't build and strangle the supply and let the price rises. 80% or 90% of the people will be very happy and grateful.

Our public housing are affordable

Who is complaining that our public housing prices are high and not affordable? The higher prices are due to our higher incomes and increased prosperity. And for those who are complaining, be advised that nothing is expensive. It is only a matter of whether you can afford to pay for it. So don't complain if you can't pay for it. To those who can, it is simply affordable.

Singaporeans to thank the foreign workers for...

Singaporeans should thank the foreign workers for the two casinos on our shore. Without the foreign workers coming here we would not have the casinos. This is how great their contributions to our economy and growth. Thank you. Please come all your gift bearing foreigners. What else are you bringing for us?

The Master Skill

It is the time of the year to call for more training and skills upgrading. We need to raise our skills, go for more training to improve productivity, and then to increase our income. I fall nicely into the group of 45 to 65 that needs more training and better skills. I need them, for I have another 20 or 30 years to go. Like I said earlier, enough time to start another family or to build a new career. The future suddenly brightens up. So much to look forward to. In the past I was only looking for whatever little money left in the CPF. Now got chance to start a new career, go for job interviews and asking the organisation about promotional prospects. Feeling like a new person again. Got to search for my certificates and testimonials and dust away the dusts, and make photocopies of them. Now, how to write an application letter? Forgotten how, too long ago. Training first. Come to think of it, if I could have gone for the right training and learn a master skill, then there is no need to go for more training at this young age of 60. Is there such a master skill that one can acquire and become a knows all for good? There must be one that allows one to be so skilled that one can switch industries and jobs like changing clothes and still continue to enjoy high pay, high perks and high bonuses year after year, unending. And the best part, no more training needed. And one's value and talent and skill get better everyday. Can anyone advise me on where to learn this master skill? Or is there such a master skill?

Time to stop the £$%&* $100 levy

I have so many flowery superlatives to describe this casino entry levy, but again, better to keep it to myself. By now many will know what this levy is all about in the most negative ways. It is anti Singaporeans, anti PRs, anti business, and makes the casino operation and business look so awkward. It keeps away the people that should be in the casino and flood the place with undesirable and unwelcome visitors like foreign workers. And it creates so many unnecessary trivial issues and a lot of work. Best, more Singaporeans will be caught trying to sneak in without paying. The two casino operators are serious business people who have put up billions of dollars upfront. The least that we could do is not to make it difficult and tedious for them to run a proper business. They are prepared to play ball, accept every rule that we impose on them, no matter how inconvenience and nonsensical. They are willing to cooperate with the govt completely, not to trangress or violate any of our sensitivities. We need to give them a break and make the profits they deserved. And in return they are going to provide many jobs and spawn many supporting businesses which are good for our economy and our people. What I would recommend is to scrap the levy for all Singaporeans and PRs except for those that have been excluded for crime and self exclusion orders, and whoever that were excluded for good reasons. We cannot discriminate against our own citizens in our own home. The reason to prevent people from gambling with the levy is plain naïve. How can we open a casino and prevent people from gambling? The people who want to gamble will find places to gamble, away from the two casinos, in Batam or Genting or underground casinos. The levy is nonsense towards this intent. The levy should be applied to foreigners instead, especially those that are not going to be beneficial to the business. This will help to recover some of the revenue loss from Singaporeans and PRs. But not all foreigners need to pay entry levy. The high rollers should be exempted for obvious reasons. For ease of implementation, make use of the credit cards. Foreigners who carry gold or platinum cards should be exempted. A small token of say $30 or $50 should be imposed on those with other credit cards. No credit cards, no entry. Let the ownership of credit cards be the controlling factor for admission. And credit card companies should be warned not to abuse this requirement and issue cards recklessly as credit cards will now be in demand by foreigners. This is good for credit card business too. Whatever revenue loss in levy could be recouped from more patronage and gamblers allowed into the casinos. The revenue for the govt could be more. Applying the levy on foreigners will also allow the current system and equipment for collection of levy to remain in use and not a white elephant to be put away. We have come so far down this road to allow casinos in our shores. Let’s be serious and let the business thrives and grows. This is big business incurring big investments and cannot afford to fail both for the operators and for our economy. The levy requirement is just not conducive for the business. And I am claiming intellectual property rights to these outrageous recommendations that are bound to raise a lot of eyebrows and ruffle feathers. But make no mistake about these, the recommendations are serious, practical and pro business. The levy on Singaporeans is simply dysfunctional and would anger many Singaporeans and PRs. How could we introduced apartheid against our own citizens and think that it is fair and good? 5 already got caught on the first two days of operation. I hope my suggestions will be accepted and the two casino operators should consider paying me a handsome consultation fee for it. And the govt should also pay me a sum double that the casino operators are willing to pay me for telling them to do something they dare not do, that is necessary for the good of the business and to create more employments. Would there be a minister tough enough to admit that my audacious recommendations are what that needs to be done, and to tell the administrators that this is the way to go, and of course to pay me my rightful dues. Of course no one needs to pay me anything as no one is under any contractual agreement to do so.

Why India will always be number 2 to China

The two civilisations have many things in common. Put an Indian and a Chinese together to compete, they will give each other a good run for his money. There is little to choose between the two. Why then will India always be number 2 to China? Many observers have noted the systems, customs, culture and language as the main baggages that will slow down India. This has been proven in history over the last 60 years. India gained its independence in 1947 and inherited a country with all the systems and infrastructure in tact. There were little disruption and the country continued to build up from that point in time with no major upheavals. The CCP gained control of a devastated China in 1949 and went about to destroy whatever that was old and irrelevant. China went through a crisis stage of revolution and destruction in all fields, culminating in the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s. Communist China was built on the ruins of a fallen dynasty and decadent customs and belief system. It started again on a relatively new slate in 1978 when it embarked on its four modernisations and opening up to the West. Today China has leapfrogged ahead of India and running in full steam with all engines firing. India is still taking a stroll, and making progress too, but at different pace. But these are not the main factors that is holding back India. India is targetting to overtake China to be the number 1 Asian power. It tries to compete and outdo China in every field. In areas that it is not competitive it just cry out loud that China should keep away from its sphere of influence. China on the other hand is trying to overtake the USA in all fields. What ever America is doing, China is trying to catch up. And China is catching up very fast. And this is the main reason why India will never catch up with China. It is focussing on a wrong target. The barrier that China intends to cross is way up in the sky. India is looking only at China and is already gasping for air and panting. Unless India sets its sight to overtake America, it will only be chasing China and be in China's shadow.

Uncle Yap's productivity prognosis

I happened to read Uncle Yap's comment on how to raise productivity in Singapore. And he said it should start right from the very top. Right. He recommended that Hsien Loong chopped half of his cabinet to show the way. I was musing over it the whole night and concluded that he was half right and half wrong. He was right in his diagnosis but wrong in his prescription. Right in the sense that any major policy must be top down with the leaders taking the lead and showing the way. But I don't agree with his recommendations to axe the top talents at the very top of the pecking order. These are the rare talants and in very limited supply and should not be anyhow wished away. Instead, I will counter suggest that in order to make them more productive, they should be given more jobs to do. Appoint them as Chairmans and directors or advisors to more institutions and organisations so that their talents and expertises are out to good use. Each one can easily take on 3 more Chairmanships or 10 directorship or 20 advisorships at least. My suggestions are definitely more positive and effective and agreeable for implementation, and definitely will raise productivity at the highest level. Making suggestions that cannot be implemented or will be rejected is, yes, unproductive.

New playground for foreign workers

Singaporeans and PRs have to pay $100 for entry to the Resort World casino. Foreign workers could enter free. What a great ruling. Now all the foreign workers will be making the casino their dining hall and playground. Free food and drink for the whole day at a cost of $3 for transport. And free aircon and comfort in a brand new resort. Ooh la la. Now we will see how the casino operator going to handle this kind of situation. The casual Singaporeans who could go in and spend a couple of hundred bucks would not find it worth their while to pay $100 to enter the casino. Instead, the casino will have to put up with a mob of hungry foreign workers who may put in ten bucks into the jackpot machine, and many may not and will just be there for the free food, comfort and entertainment. Interesting rulings and interesting situation.

Notable quote by Pauline Hanson

'Our govts lack enough people with the fortitude to speak up without fear or favour. Over regulation, increasing taxes and lack of true representation are affecting our way of life. I feel very much for the young ones. Once, it was common for them to won their own homes. Not now. It's a harder place.' Pauline Hanson Pauline Hanson is leaving Australia and returning to England to her fish and chip root. She must have been very disappointed over the immigration policy in Australia and wanted to go back to a place that is much fairer. She is in for a nasty surprise. There are more coloured immigrants in England today than the England she thought she knew. Her quote above is very familiar. At first I thought it was from a Singaporean or about Singapore. The only part I agree with her is her concern for the young. But it is not so that the young in Singapore are not able to buy their affordable homes here. Our young are in a very admirable position with the govt guaranteeing that more affordable homes will be built for them. Australia should learn from Singapore in building homes for their young.