When Xi called Trump ... something big is happening

 For the first half of 2025, Trump was sending messages to want to meet up with Xi. He had sent all the positive signals to China, claiming Xi was his good friend, Xi was a great leader and...relations between the two countries could be good. No one believed Trump. After all Trump was the one that started the trade war with China in his first term and following up with greater intensity in his second term. Xi was reticent, no reply, not saying a single word. 

The break came on the last few days of the APEC Summit in South Korea that both would finally meet in Busan on 30 Oct. The Meeting ended with Trump claiming it was a good meeting and both walking out together smiling, like two old friends. Trump also announced he would be visiting Beijing next year and Xi would make a return visit to Washington. The trade war had a slight reprieve with China agreeing to buy soya beans, held back on more restriction on rare earths and curtailing sale of fentanyl. Trump did not really offer anything of substance or meaningful to China.

Shortly after the Meeting, negative rhetoric continued from the American side, showing signs that things were not going well. Then Japan lighted a fire by announcing that it would intervene and even attack China should China reunify with Taiwan. Suddenly everything heated up and tension rose. US was exceptionally restrained with only its ambassador in Japan making a short statement to support the Japanese position. The whole world looks on with trepidation that a great crisis is in the making.

China was infuriated with Japan crossing its red line and has slammed Japan daily, including taking measures to ban Japanese seafood, cutting off flights and tourists to Japan. Japan did not back down, refused to retract the aggressive remarks, giving the impression that the Americans were behind the move.

A war with Japan is a war between China and the USA. The consequences are beyond anyone's imagination. Both China and US would suffer unacceptable damages while Japan ended the biggest winner. Japan is setting up this fight between China and the USA.

Now Xi has made a call to Trump. Chinese media reported that Taiwan was discussed. White House did not reveal this. Xi would not call Trump to talk about golf or breakfast. Something very big must be discussed and going to take place. My opinion, Taiwan was the central issue in the phone call. Xi must have told Trump that China's red line has been crossed by the Japanese. China will act. What would be Trump's response? After the call, Trump said relations between China and US is 'extremely strong', and 'Taiwan's return to China' is key part of Beijing's vision for the world order. This is the first time Trump used the term 'extremely strong' for relations between the two countries.

The phone call must be very frank and serious. Whatever, if Xi decided it's time to act. Trump would have to consider seriously how to respond, to fight China or to let China fight Japan alone. There is no good reason for Trump to risk the whole USA to fight China all because of Japan. It is just not worth it, and there is no need to. Xi must have briefed Trump of what is coming and be best for Trump not to get involved.

The next few days or weeks are crucial moments in China US relations and would affect the future of human civilisation. A war with China is not something to mess around with. This is the real thing that Trump in all his seriousness and betting, cannot be ignored lightly. When China decides to act....

Now is the lull before the storm.