2/08/2006
thaksin, shin corp and temasek
the trouble with thaksin is trouble for the sale of shin corp to temasek. and the fallout can be quite painful if the emotions of the thai public is played up.
will temasek and singapore be embroiled in a domestic uprising in thailand and scuttle a seemingly business transaction? the rise and fall of thaksin is so dramatic that fortunes can change overnight.
let's keep our finger crossed that this is strictly thai internal politics.
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20 comments:
One thing about the Thais: they know about their rights and their rights of expression when they think govt officials are out of line.
If a cuntry is to be governed by its people, then each individual must exercise his own democratic right to his natural sense of justice, then experss that right as an individual, and by doing so encourage other like-minded individuals to do likewise.
That's how you get "people power".
Things will evolve, and after a time, like everything, the "energy" will disperse and normal peaceful living will resume.
In our Mother Cuntry, the dick-tator ruled S'pore, no one gives a shit about their own rights, or the rights of their neighbour, familiy... don't even mention "fellow man".
The concept of "fellow man" is kinda alien in S'pore :-)
Eevrything will blow over soon.
when everyone is working for himself, the collectivity and collective will is undermined.
there is a chinese saying, when the big tree falls, all the monkeys will scattered. the big tree is the only reason to keep all the monkeys together.
when it falls, there will be a small window period of anarchy, or the realignment of forces. then back to normal when a new order is established.
Firstly, Singapore has become more 'professional' in not reacting as it did on the Australian Draggie case.
But a concern here is, Singapore must unofficially ensure Thaksin must not fall. Easily understood...
Secondly, Thaksin is not a reformist, nor is he the Father of Thailand. What MM can do and probably get away with, he can't without political elements assisting him. You guys should observe the varied political conditions between them and us.
People's power, politically speaking, depends on relativity to leadership condition. Don't understand is ok, you'd not currently required to. :)
elfred,
you are right to say that thaksin is totally in a different level of play. but singapore better keep very quiet and not try to meddle with thai politics. they can be as explosive as indonesian or filipino politics.
historically they have the most coup de tat among all the asean countries. and now with the thai king probably now on the side of thaksin, he is as good as a goner.
and this is a case of how things can turn bad over night.
The Thai king probably would use this chance to revive their authority. I don't have any news yet from Thailand, but Thaksin's rise in such manner would pose not a slight threat to the monoarch's eventual existence.
The opposition to Thaksin is understandable. Thaksin actually behaves as if it's Temesek in Singapore. Those people are getting jittery over him possibly becoming another LKY who can dispose the cabinet as and when he likes. And they are using this weakness of Thaksin to oust him.
In a way, it's quite true. For once Thaksin can go on as such, even the Thai monarch can do nothing, and his coy would extend the claws to other aspect of Thailand no matter if there are rebels or what, hence establishing a Thaksin-only-democratic system...
But here, Singapore cannot afford to sideline and see Thaksin goes into free fall. After all, our interest would come into bad light if he falls. The keyword to international politics is to to be 'sitational'. But there shall be no intervention, but indirect arrangement.
As I said long ago, it's a regrets if Thaksin just proceed on like this without good political assistance. Once the Thai monarch realises the situation, a smart monarch would call for his downfall and establish the monarch's authority.
This is not People's power... it's just pure political struggle of Power/factions. One must be able to differentiate.
As I said before, and again, when there is blood and shark, things will fall in naturally.
If Thaksin falls, Singapore will (in simple words) be the scape goat...
the flutter of a butterfly can cause a tsunami in another place.
this thaksin thing can be a flutter that bring the tsunami to singapore.
what has happened to singapore politics can be replicated elsewhere. not in thailand.
This tests the ministers' competency. RI is nothing but their potential in assisting the regime.
I have already said international politics is no rigid model based reactions. So is politics itself. I've just heard JBJ and the... whose Podcast at at SDP site. Very ideologic... but that's not applicable.
Put it this way, the risk of a mess will come if Thaksin gets a free fall. If Thaksin stays, he'd legitimate any issues with Singapore. If Thaksin fall, or decline, Singapore risks being the scape goat. I don't think that's so difficult to understand.
Sometimes, it's not everytime you stay out stay out and you got an A. If politics is really like that, PM looks set to be finished.
What I am only saying is not wisdom, it's simple logic. But how the MFA does things will be another matter. Actually this is but a very small matter.
So now you realize why I rather MM doesn't pass away so early, and why he should be staying in parliament. I don't go by likes or dislikes... Many things I said will become clear later on.
Politics, my boy... It's not just democracy and election. It's not so the way many would like it to be. Call it macro or what, but I'm illustrating to you something that makes real politician-to-be unique.
I, btw, am definitely not a wannabe.
The key to note is the Thai King. Once he opened his mouth... alot of answers will come.
you are very right elfred. thai politics is very different the thai revered their king. and the king is smart enough not to meddle with politics. and he had done that well over the years. he only says something when the die has been cast.
he will only open his mouth when thaksin's fate is sealed by the people. at the moment thaksin is fighting for his life. his selling of shin corp is his admission that things are not going well for him.
it wasn't wise for us to buy shin corp. a little bit of advantage economically can turn into a political nightmare.
quoting matilah, you cannot cheat an honest man. when the deal is foul, it will smell.
If the Thai king understands the era Thailand is marching into, he would open his mouth earlier. Thaksin already put his destiny in the hands of the king ('only the king can ask me to step down').
People are trying to oust him before he gets to oust them, plus the king eventually. After all, who is he? He's just a business man.
That serves as a reminder to PM. If he continues to choose to be politically weak and INC strong... Singapore would be cooking chaos in the pot.
You can't blame Temasek for buying Shin.
Ano... Shin wa nihonde shinte imase... soredemo, shinte nakereba narimasen ne... zan nen desho...?
the thai king better don't shoot too fast. thaksin has ground support. if he did and read the ground wrongly, the era not only changed, the kinghood may also change.
and you speaking vulgar language are you?
You ever come across vulgar that l-o-n-g...?
If I am the advisor of the Thai King, he'd definitely shoot off. Thaksin is actually a highly possible 'gone-case'. The grounds may have a lot of support, including those militant rebels that perhaps Thaksin is trying to buy over. Hahahahaha...
It's still the who oust who issue. The king will increasingly become the thorn of Thaksin's business interest in this new economic era. The king has in fact little choice if he understands the situation. It's not as in Britain. If the King keeps mum this time, he'd probably no have much chance to open his Thai mouth again.
This is power struggle. As long as the king doesn't openly support the opposition,and express that the king 'believes the people' want Thaksin out or Thaksin should claim innocent by having a third party to disclose his assets and transactions... Hahahaha...
You think Thaksin will listen to the king to open his closet...? Hahahahaha... Why worry, Reddie?
elfred,
our main concern is the fallout. let's hope this is not the butterfly flutter. or our general election would be delayed.
Eh... elaborate. :D
But my main concern is to scavage what little is of this concern: entertainment.
I doubt that'd delay our election no matter what would happen to Thaksin. It's already obvious. This guy have to credible political advisor around him. His fall or rise won't make Thais happier or otherwise, and why would Singaporeans be bother? They are too apathetic even for domestic politics. :D
Come on.
when the thai politicians mobilised the people and put all the blame on singapore on the shin corp deal and you have demonstration or attacks against our embassy, then we will have a problem at hand.
their politicians of mass demonstration and violence is very different from ours when 4 people is considered public protest. they will have a mass protest like the philippines.
Hahahahaha... Worry so much for what? That's MFA's problem. :D They should know how to handle.
I don't really think they would be much problem. :D Even if the King turns smart and Thaksin has to step down, don't tell me MFA's so busy not to visit the King and invite him for a tour to Singapore?
Once MFA did that, the King can appease the people. So small matter only. Once the King gain power from ousting Thaksin, those noises won't be stupid enough to immediately defy the King's friend, Singapore. :D
That's the interesting thing of international politics. You worry too much. Just listen to me and hope this show gets more interesting.
elfred,
i read political science for 4 years and subsequently continue an ongoing interest on the subject for more than 20 years.
and during my formative years i live and breathe national interest and national interest is now in my blood. that's all i let you have a glimpse of my training and experience.
the thai king will not get involved in politics unless he wants his days to be numbered. he will only open his mouth when the rice is cooked.
how to deal with them? so easy? just like another singaporean writer wrote in the today paper, 'forget the politics, the shin corp is a good deal.' he thinks he is a singapore politician talking to the singaporeans?
when you talk to people outside singapore, this kind of talk down or patronising attitude will only get you to be shot down. who the hell you think you are to tell people to forget it, lets move on.
singaporeans are used to such statements. because we live in a well. even thaksin would not dare talk in this way. forget about politics, it is a good deal. period. that is the cocky singapore way.
Hahahaha... I started learning politics in my primary school days, moving across the east to the west thinking, and have no less than 20 years observing changes... Just to let you understand what is breathing politics and national issue really mean. When my peers were playing marbles and erasers, I was debating somewhere with adults on national issues.
If the Thai King is smart and I am advising the Thai King, he'd shot down Thaksin as soon as possible.
If he were to be finished, it'd be if he stays quiet and risk Thaksin becomes strong enough to remove him in the later stage.
Reddie, because most are living in the well doesn't mean every is. And those who won't think out of the well will likely to be the very well stuck in the well. :D Who does he think he is... He thinks he doesn't wanna be in the well, I suppose.
You are still not too long to understand certain essence in politics, which is perhaps why you said this.
You see, Thailand won't become a big issue to Singapore. Where interest is concern, be it Thaksin or the opposition of Thaksin or even the King won't shoot itself on the leg anyohow on another ASEAN member.
I am only telling you, if I were advising or if I were the King, I'd shoot down Thaksin and re-establish authority for survival. Because Thaksin can never be a good trustable friend. He's too interest-bound, ie.
thai politics have 5 key players. the king, the politicians, the military, the students and the monks.
thaksin cannot do as he pleases.
There's by right another player: Singapore.
Ok, be frank with you... If I am advising the king, and the PM L... I'd rather lose Thaksin for a very good reason.
And the monks won't move before the king. The military can be put on hold. The students followed the politicians.
What matters to me is only the king. He shuts up, and kisses goodbye to this golden chance. :D
Sometimes silence is not always golden.
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