6/11/2012

China – What a disappointment!



It is unbelieveable, it is too early to tell, the Chinese must have been tweaking their numbers, and against the analysts of the world, the most intelligent bunch of idiots, China defies all the doomsayers by chalking up another scintillating set of economic numbers. The slump, the hard landing as predicted by these analysts all looked very silly.

Export growth in May over last year went up by a huge 15.3% exceeding or equal the once in 500 years annual GDP growth record held by Singapore last year, at 15%, or was it 15.5%? Imports also soared by 12.1% over last year. And the brilliant analysts with their grand computer assisted formula were expecting a sharp fall, which would lead to job losses and unrest.

There are so many countries with less than 5% growth and many with zero growth rates but with no social unrest. China must be different. A decline in growth from 8.5% to 8% is so terrible and could spell disasters for China. The bankruptcies of Greece, Spain and many European countries are well accepted by their people without serious social unrest. The only countries that would face serious social unrest are those targeted by the West for more military assistance to resist their ruling govts.

The doomsayers are obviously feeling very angry and deeply disappointed. Why is this underdeveloped country with unsophisticated country bumpkins failed to slow down and continue to make them look so clownish? What they also forgot is that a major slowdown will bring down the world’s economy as well. At the moment it is the Chinese economy and some other Asian economies that are propping up the international economy. Without these growing economies, the world would plunge into a major recession and they would not need any analysts and doomsayers anymore. And no more cheap and good Chinese products to lower their cost of living, no more Apple Iphones at affordable prices in the market.

Too early to tell, they echoed. They are still hoping to be right. For that to happen, Europe and America must first go on a tailspin, to cut their demands for Chinese goods before it hits China. And when Europe and America fall flat, China could still rely on its domestic market and other Asian and African markets to grow at 3 to 5% which are very respectable growth numbers during a recession.

And last month's trade surplus for China was $24b! That amount could probably save Greece or Spain.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Never believe in 'cooked' statistics released by the Chinese. Similarly, I don't take all released by our authorities in Singapore.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Don't worry about that. The doomsayers analysts are watching any statistics coming out from China like a hawk. They will put them under the microscope and comb it many many times to see if a comma is misplaced. They will tear them to pieces for every mistake made.

Matilah_Singapura said...

If a crash happens, it will happen regardless of what the stats say or what the gloom and doom crystal gazers predict.

China faces some problems -- for sure. But is also has lots and lots of filthy, sexy, glorious, liquid CASH, and a more than healthy cash-flow.

So what if there is collapse here and there? The People's Police will quickly restore order and it'll be "business as usual".

Hong Kong is the capitalist capital of the world. Plus it (as yet) doesn't have the toxicity of Wall Str. It s the closest to a free market this world will ever get.

China will prevail lah. They are fierce players in the free market. Communist in name only.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

A week back I was watching CNA and the celebration of Children's Day in North Korea attended by 40,000 students. They were in proper school uniforms, wearing shoes, scarves, and all looking pretty healthy.

They must be the envy of those in under developed countries in Africa and some parts of Asia where countries are claiming to be rich.

But you can still hear robotic professors or analysts passing remarks that the North Koreans are living in abject poverty. My God! These people must have just flown back from Mars.

Anonymous said...

China
It is silly to put their surplus into US treasury bond when it is issued by the world biggest private capitalist(Federal Reserve)which is basically controlled by the biggest capitalist in the world,it will be worthless in time to come.

Instead,they should invest in their own people and share the wealth with Chinese people,it is the biggest consumer market in the world,but they did learn also from a very smart dictator,do not make your people clever,look after your elites and you last for ever.Wise advice indeed!