Modi is visiting Biden in June, apparently summoned to hear the emperor's edict. It does not come as a surprise, as the timing is perfect, with Moscow wanting to sell weapons and trade with India and to be paid in Yuan, not rupees. Understand India still has not been able to pay Russia for weapons supplied earlier to the tune of US$8 billion, of which US$2 billion is now stuck with the sanctions against Russia, if I am not mistaken. India is afraid to antagonise the USA by paying Russia in Yuan, which means bypassing the US$. Russia has little use to take more rupee payments in unlimited quantities, as India export much less to Russia than China, which is why Russia wants to be paid in Yuan.
This is, of course, not to the liking of the Indians having to use the Yuan. It means the rupee is not clearly favoured by the Russians. Therefore it is leading to trouble. The USA is quick on the mark to 'make hay while the sun shines'. Yes, another alliance is in the making, and you can be sure India will be coerced to move in with the West to condemn Russia in Ukraine and of course to confront China. Those who have been summoned to Washington to hear the emperor's edict, eventually had been arm twisted and forced to bend backwards, following the pressure exerted. Of course, no one wants to talk about it. Does the changing stance of Marcos Jr give us any clue? Or Olaf Scholz now being obedient like a dog has anything to do with his visit to Washington?
India is stuck between a rock and a hard place. India is too dependent on Russian energy to antagonise the Russians by turning against them over Ukraine. The USA is bent on making that happen. Sure, India can buy its energy needs from the USA, but it will not be cheap and certainly not highly discounted. Even the Middle East will not be able to give the same deal of highly discounted oil to India like the Russians. Moreover, the USA has no leverage over the Middle East to sell cheaper oil to India, as even Europe is paying very expensive prices for Middle East energy. Remember that most Middle East countries are now closing ranks with Russia, and when it comes to the doctine of 'the enemy of my friend is also my enemy', India may be in deep trouble.
Anonymous