After lighting a fire in US China relations, Pelosi conveniently left Taiwan leaving the Taiwanese in the lurch, now fearing for their lives. They have seen what had happened to Ukraine and the Ukrainians. Their fate would be many times worse should China decided enough is enough and move in to stop the separatist movements. They is no where to run. They can't even become refugees fleeing through land and sea as the island would be totally locked down. Those who escaped, the only place is the US. No one else would want them, at least not the neighbouring countries. Europe and the Americans would look at them as the Yellow Peril, not blue eye blonds.
Are the Taiwanese regretting now? Are they still defiance and wanting to push to break away from the motherland? This is an act of treason in any country. This is time for reflection and to ask themselves what are the alternatives available. To China, there is only one alternative and nothing else matters.
What is the message of the Pelosi visit? To the Americans, it is to destabilise cross strait relations and to raise tension in the region, possibly war. They loved wars and would be telling the Taiwanese that they would be behind them. The Americans are testing the Chinese in a chicken game, that they would take on China militarily. The show of force of two aircraft carriers have dwindled down. They know that the first thing to happen would be the sinking of the aircraft carriers by China. Both are in the dangerous firing range of China' anti aircraft carrier missiles. There is no defence as China would be raining missiles on them in exchange for 10 Americans and 200 American aircrafts.
They are still in the area, albeit further out in the ocean, thinking that it would be safer and a chance to flee if China strikes, or assuming that war would not start and China would be restrained to strike, the same kind of thinking as WW2 against the Japanese. The Japanese struck Pearl Harbour. Sinking of the two aircraft carriers would be a disaster many times the size of Pearl Harbour.
China did not want a war that no one would gain. China let Pelosi off the hook before acting against renegade Taiwan. China must act, and China acted, to send a message to the Americans, Japanese and Taiwanese. China would resolutely defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. By moving its forces to surround Taiwan, China is telling the Taiwanese and Americans a military reunification is on the card and has started. There is no return to the status quo. The blockade would be a permanent feature.
Going forward, China would regard Taiwan as part of China not just in words but in deeds. The presence of the PLA all over Taiwan would be the new normal and the noose will be tightened daily. The reunification of Taiwan is ON and would be expedited. The Taiwanese must know that China meant business and if they are stubborn enough to continue with their separatist movements, their fate would be the same as the Ukrainians. This is real.
The message to the Taiwanese, China is taking control of Taiwan. Would they dare to break out, fire at the PLA? Firing a shot would mean inviting the PLA to take over immediately. And the Taiwanese know very well that the overwhelming force of the PLA is undefensible. Also, which commanding general would dare to take on the PLA, or how many command officers have already had secret deals with the PLA not to act and let in the PLA without a fight? What is there to fight when there is no chance of winning except death and destruction? It is a futile effort for the Taiwanese defence force.
The military option to take over Taiwan could be over in minutes without firing a shot. Many of the Taiwanese forces would simply raise the PRC flags and Taiwan would be reunited with China and life goes on as normal.
The message to the Americans, would the Americans and Japanese dare to join the fray? The PLA will be deploying more and more of its forces in the surrounding sea of Taiwan to ward off any adventurism by the Americans. The Eastern Command have enough resources and might to deal with whatever the Americans could bring to start a war. Any silly country attempting to provoke China in the South China Sea would face robust action from the PLA. They would not be allowed to sail in and out happily to provoke China any more.
This is the new situation, the new status quo in the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Yellow Sea and Bohai. The PLA has taken over to safeguard China's interest and territorial integrity. It is time for action, no more talks necessary. China is on war footing to take on the Americans.
Other than the new status quo, the visit has exposed the fake confidence of the Tsai govt that they could defend the island. The Chinese exercise, flying aircraft and missiles all over Taiwan and Taiwan dares not react, not a word of protest. Her credibility of defending Taiwan and toughness dissipated in the air. The Taiwanese have lost hope in her and the DPP, all hot air and no substance. They had called her bluff. Taiwan would give up without a fight when China decides to take over by military means. After all they are all Chinese with many waiting to return to the Motherland, a new and prosperous China.
The Americans have told her that they would not send soldiers to defend Taiwan. That was the message Pelosi carried to her. Otherwise she would be thumping her chest again. But no such things. She is now calling for calm and peaceful talks with China. There is no contest without the Americans.
Some analysts have suggested the whole thing was a charade. Biden and Xi had decided everything, without inching towards open conflict. There is no change in American position of a One China.