Top 20 Predictions in 2022 Part 1 – 2

History as recent as the 20th century may have accorded us some tools to even conceptualise a theory based on irrationality in foreign policies. What have the countless wars waged in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and currently achieved?

What relationship if any exists between the minds of political leadership and the international political realm that ultimately had led to war after war, destruction after destruction, foreign policy irrationality after foreign policy irrationality with no clear victors or benefits for all.

What makes political leadership assumes military conflicts rather than cooperation &/ or peaceful coexistence would restore disequilibrium in the world order?

Yale University’s political scholar Irving L. Janis wrote:

Quote
“Groups can bring out the worst as well as the best in man. Nietzsche went so far as to say that madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups. A considerable amount of social science literature shows that in circumstances of extreme crisis, group contagion occasionally gives rise to collective panic, violent acts of scapegoating, and other forms of what could be called group madness. Much more frequent, however, are instances of mindless conformity and collective misjudgement of serious risks, which are collectively laughed off in a clubby atmosphere of relaxed conviviality.”

“What is groupthink?”

“I use the term “groupthink” as a quick and easy way to refer to a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a collective ingroup, when the members’ strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action. “Groupthink” is a term of the same order as the words in the newspeak vocabulary George Orwell presents in his dismaying 1984 – a vocabulary with terms such as “doublethink” and “crimethink.” By putting groupthink with those Orwellian words, I realise that groupthink takes on an invidious connotation. The invidiousness is intentional. Groupthink refers to a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgement that results from in-group pressures.”
Unquote

Leo 81

Academic Make-believe Inflation vs Real-Term Inflation

This inflation thing today is very bad for Singapore. The pressure-cooker is bound to explode very soon. Just watch.

There is always a huge difference between the academicians' look-good politically-motivated estimates of inflation and the real terms inflation.

The politically-motivated inflation rate of academicians has always been too conservative to the extent that the man (and woman) in the street will say they are talking through their nose. It never exceeds 4% per annum.

The real inflation is not measured by the make-believe inflation rate cleverly calculated and politically uttered by the brain-dead (PhD means Permanent Head Damage) academicians, especially those who are proudly wearing the title called "Professor".

The real inflation is experienced on the daily basis when you go to the coffeeshop and find out that your cup of coffee-black was $1 yesterday but $1.10 today. That is 10% inflation in real terms. Not 1.5%.

The real inflation is when you have been paying $2000 per month rental for your 4-room HDB flat last month but now have to pay $2400 per month for a 3-room HDB flat this month. That is 20% inflation in real terms. Not 3.8% in the watered-down calculations of the government.

Who gain from the inflation? The government, of course. Followed by the unscrupulous profiteering business organisations and property owners.

The coffeeshop owners used to be very satisfied to have a wife and happy to drive a Mercedes Benz in the past, but not so now. Now, they want to keep mistresses and girlfriends, and drive a Ferrari instead.

The property owners are worse than the coffeeshop owners. Their greed really knows no boundaries. The sky is the limit. The more they increase the rental the better.

And the property agents, who directly benefit from higher rental (the higher the increase the bigger their commission) are the main catalyst of this crazy rental increase every year.

So, moral of the story: Never trust the inflation rate stated by the government or any professor!


A-non-y-mouse.

Covid19 - Are you ready folks? Vax wanes like batteries, get re-charged now!

COVID-19 vaccine pass will be applied with 6-month validity period this week

SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- Proof of vaccination required for access to multiuse facilities will be valid only for six months after the primary series or booster doses starting Monday, health authorities said as they seek to stem the latest upsurge in virus cases.

Under the tightened measure, those who completed the primary series on July 6 last year or before will not be allowed to use those facilities starting Monday if they are not administered with a booster shot, officials said.

The so-called vaccine pass is required for people to enter restaurants, cafes, theaters, cram schools and other indoor multipurpose facilities. The measure will be applied to department stores and large discount store chains Jan. 10.

Unvaccinated people should present negative COVID-19 test results that were issued within 48 hours in a bid to use such facilities. The government plans to adopt the pass system for youths in March after a one-month grace period.

The vaccine pass rules will be implemented with a seven-day grace period. The government plans to impose a fine or take administrative actions against violators starting Jan. 10.

The move comes as South Korea is struggling to stem the spike in COVID-19 cases and the fast spread of the omicron variant.

The country added 3,833 new COVID-19 infections Sunday, raising the total caseload to 639,083. It reported 93 more omicron variant cases, bringing the total to 1,207.

Anonymous

Rising inflation no problem to Singaporeans?

Commentary: Should we be worried about a higher cost of living in 2022?

There are a few reasons Singapore’s overall inflation is at its highest in over eight years, but it is not all gloom if there is scope for more help to cope with rising costs, says NUS Business School professor Sumit Agarwal....

Trade and Industry Minister Gan Kim Yong said in a written reply in Parliament that food prices are expected to rise. The Public Transport Council announced an increase in bus and train fare

Singapore’s overall inflation in November 2021 was at 3.8 per cent, which meant the same things bought in November 2020 were priced, on average, at 3.8 per cent higher a year later....

Is it all gloom? The public must understand that these figures refer to overall inflation and not core inflation.

Core inflation pertains more to prices of basic necessities, such as food, clothing, utilities and public transport, while overall inflation covers that and non-necessities, such as private transport and electronics.

If we look at only the core inflation rate, it was 1.6 per cent in November 2021, 1.5 per cent in October 2021 and 1.2 per cent in September 2021. While core inflation is at its highest in nearly three years, it is still manageable.   CNA

I must say that it is a miracle or amazing that with public transport fare hike, petrol price, medical, medical insurance, electricity and utilities fare hikes, food prices going up, GST going up, the core inflation is still below 2%. Maybe all these items are not basic necessities. I dunno, I only presume so.

And I can talk about it so calmly as if it is nothing is because my pay is in the millions. Of course I am dreaming, and pretending to be having million dollar pay. 

What about you guys, not feeling the pinch, especially the jobless and the retired, those that are earning less than a peanut. oops, a peanut is $600k, I mean those that are earning less than $3,000? Everything is fine?

Or as the above professor, likely a foreigner or new citizen, said, there are help with the rising cost of living. One or two one time relief, no need to pay utilities bill for one month, or $100 voucher here and there, all problems solved.  Many people are jobless by the time they are 60 and have to live way past 80, and have to pay and pay.

What is 1.6% core inflation? Sup sup suay. Singaporeans are all so rich. Life goes on. Nothing to worry about. If got problem, tighten belt a bit, then wait for help.

On the other hand, 'Secretary-General, Pritam Singh, said that the cost of living is likely to be a "major pressure point" for many Singaporean households in 2022.

According to Singh, those particularly affected would be from the low to middle-income households, especially those with both young children and aged parents to care for.' Mothership.sg

Really, Singapore got poor people meh?

Top 20 Predictions in 2022

 

2022 Prediction (1) - Possible (Humongous) Miscalculation in Foreign Policies

In international politics, arguably there is no global jurisprudence like in nation states where there is existence of some form of national governance to maintain and enforce law and order to a large extent within certain geographical boundaries (up to the point where it breaks down; anarchy &/ or chaos ensue till another legitimate regime with the embracing support of the mass populace emerges, reunites the various segments of the society and imposes a new law and order, bringing about peace and resumption of development).

On the global front, history is littered with many instances where might is right in international politics and the law of jungle precedes at some point where brutish power finds laws in no other form than in its own might and on its own basis to enact domination over or violence on others not unlike the lions being the predators in the jungle and feeding on its preys whenever the needs arise with no necessity for any justification whatsoever.

At best, world order since the early 20th century consists of some “loose or weak form” of international institutions such as the League of Nations formed after World War One which was replaced by the United Nations after World War Two. The many cases of international armed conflicts since the 1930s despite the existence of “supranational institutions” and with losses far outweighing the benefits (if any) certainly do not obfuscate the realities of international politics which in many ways are corollaries of political actions taken and foreign policies conducted.

In the words of Abraham Lincoln:

“I do the very best I know how, the very best I can, and I mean to keep doing so until the end. If the end brings me out all right, what is said against me won't amount to anything. If the end brings me out wrong, ten angels swearing I was right would make no difference.”

Rational foreign policies may be seen in the light of a photograph and a painting. The photograph shows everything the naked eyes can see; the painting cannot but attempts to show what is not visible to the naked eyes: elements that encompasses biases, intellectual weaknesses, personal preferences … deviations that could misdirect foreign policies from rationality.

Leo 81