Would Singapore invite China into CPTPP?

The anti China TPP, conceived with one specific purpose, to isolate China, went ahead without the Americans and formed a half past six grouping under a modified name called CPTPP.  The non participation of America in such a trade grouping would have effectively rendered it a no go proposition. What is there left without the American market?

Under normal conditions, the remaining participants would go around hunting for an equivalent big economy to replace the Americans. The obvious choice was China. But the obvious choice was that China was the main enemy and should not be the choice. Grudgingly they went ahead, on a limb, to sign a trade pact that is as good as a non pact. The persistence of some members in the grouping not wanting to give up is understandable. Without China is the key agenda and going ahead without China is still like half a bird in the bush is better than none. China was excluded and they have achieved what they set out to do.

Hsien Loong is in China to attend the Boao Forum and would follow up with a working visit to China to meet Wang Yi and to discuss areas of cooperation. The test balloon floated, oops, oops, wrong choice of word, the main agenda is to invite China to join the lame duck CPTPP.  At least this what I perceived from the statements he made in the media. 

In Channel News Asia it was reported that "Mr Lee highlighted the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which was renamed after the withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is a proposed FTA spearheaded by the ten ASEAN member states and involving six major trading partners, including China....that these two agreements will boost economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and promote a seamless flow of goods, services and business that will benefit all countries.

“The CPTPP, which was recently signed, is an open and inclusive agreement. We welcome China, and others, to join the CPTPP when they are ready,” Mr Lee said....

Singapore will continue to support China’s constructive participation in the regional architecture as well as the international system,” Mr Lee said."

The last two sentences are as good as Singapore taking an initiative to invite China into the CPTPP.  anyone reading it as otherwise? This trip to China could be ground breaking in Singapore China relationship. In a way the term test balloon could be quite appropriate in the sense that Japan would never agree to have China in the CPTPP. Did Hsien Loong speak to Abe and had his concurrence to brood this matter with China? If not, the suggestion is as good as cheap talk. Japan would definitely throw its weight down to oppose China's entry. China is not just a historical enemy of Japan, its admission into CPTPP would mean that Japan would no longer be the undisputed leader to call the shot and to drive the CPTPP against China's interests.

Not only that, there is the big bad wolf lurking in the dark corner, not in the CPTPP does not mean that the Americans have no say in China's entry into the CPTPP. The Americans would use their veto card to stop China and all the American cronies and little USAs would not be able to say no.

Would Singapore take a lead against the interests of Japan and the USA to invite China into the CPTPP? Does Singapore have the heft and influence to make this happen? Or would it be a case that Singapore has done its best but were blocked by other interested parties to keep China out of the grouping?

Let's see what comes out of this China trip.

In today's news, it was reported that Hsien Loong has inked a couple of MOUs with Li Keqiang on the BRI and to promote  cross cultural cooperation. There was some mention of the RCEP but nothing about the CPTPP. Perhaps my reservations on Japan not going to agree to China's entry and the USA, though no longer a party, would also not permit China to be admitted to the CPTPP. The vacuum cannot be filled by China. Any other country will do but not China. So looks like Singapore is not going to be able to do a thing on this.

The Real US Problem: Multilateral Trade Deficits - Part 2

Basically Donald Trump looks like an economics noop or perhaps simply trying to bluff his way through.

He acts as if there is no single able economist in the US to provide him any advice on how to solve the US trade deficit problem, beginning with going after China with all kinds of dubious excuses in an attempt to reduce bilateral trade deficit.

Any trained economist would surely see through the holes in such a stance. The Americans real problem is their multilateral trade deficits with the world and not the bilateral trade deficit with China. Even if China accepts Donald Trump's unreasonable demand and unilaterally import another US$100 billion of their oil or aircrafts, such measure hardly solves or improves US economy overall or in the long term. In fact it may even cause more harm in the long run by making such US industries even more inefficient and addicted to such measures to enable exports to foreign markets.

And for the 1,300 products worth US$60 billion slapped with 25% tariffs, how is it going to solve the US trade deficit problems when importers can turn to other sources to import such goods?

Under free trade agreement signed with trading partners, such protectionist measure is known as trade diversion and to so called divert trade revenues from other countries to trade partners within the FTA grouping. But in this case, probably the US could end up importing many of the 1,300 Chinese tariffs targeted products from many other non-FTA countries and create jobs in those countries instead of the US, meanwhile making cost of living worst off and higher for the average US consumers through paying more for similar products from elsewhere.

Faced with an unhinged bully, China's counter moves so far have been measured but firm, otherwise it would probably invite further unabated aggression from the antogoniser who smells blood in any weak response or weakness and further rain countless blows and inflict untold injuries on the hapless victim.

Many international experts find Donald Trump's trade arguments confused and befuddling and would ultumately worsen than solve the Americans domestic economic problems. Doubling down last Thur 5 Apr on intention of hitting another US$100 billion worth of Chinese products with tariffs may be more of a sign of an unravelled binged gambling addict at the casino table who has lost his head and mind and desperately trying to recoup his losses and in the process ends up eventually in an unsalvageable situation for himself. Unfortunately, at this moment, there seems no one able to rein in on the muddled protectionist trade war measures taken by Donald Trump thus far.

Leo81

Donald Trump's Trade War is 10 Years Too Late -Part 1

In 2009, the year after the 2008 GFC (Global Financial Crisis), world trade shrank for the first time in half a century. China then was far more dependent on the American market in terms of percentage share of exports to GDP.

Over the past 10 years, China's GDP more than doubled, averaging more than 7% per annum, though economic growth ranges between 6.5% to 6.9% in the last 3 years but overall the average annual growth rate was well over 7% in the past decade for the Chinese economy to more than double between 2007 to 2018.

After the onset of the 2008 GFC, the drastic fall of demand for Chinese exports in the American and European markets, massive efforts and policy initiatives were taken by the Hu/ Wen led Chinese government to diversify and restructure the economy away from the export-led economic growth especially to the debt-laden American economy which is predicted to implode cyclically given its massive imbalance in its GDP consumption spending composition, savings rate, budget deficit etc. After 10 years of silent but relentless slogging, the Chinese economy is far more diversified, urbanisation has continued to intensify, services has become much larger as a share of GDP, social security has improved and more and more Chinese consumers are confident and willing to spend on consumption. All these implied that any protectionist measure especially tariffs would harm the American consumers and economy much much more than the Chinese.

With the US economy heavily in debt and the average consumers highly leveraged, the days of the American economy as the number one consumers are likely numbered and its importance diminishing each passing day. Any further escalation of the current budding trade war posts far more systemic threat to the American than the Chinese.

All the major political events in China such as last year Oct Party's Congress and this year March NPC are over. President Xi Jinping has consolidated his power and the people and society are ready to stand united behind the government in any economic showdown forced upon them by the imperial American white supremacists. On the other hand, the domestic political battles in the US are just beginning and subjected to change especially from missteps in managing the economy and international relations which bring more setbacks than benefits to the American economy.

Donald Trump is facing a more and more uphill battle in the upcoming mid-term election to maintain the Republican razor thin majority in the US Senate and given more and more House of Representatives seats held by the Republic are becoming hot battle grounds, even the majority in the lower Congress is under threat. By losing their majority in the coming mid-term, Donald Trump would probably become the most "besieged" US President in history and his remaining term may just become pure lame duck and all about dodging impeachment as much as possible. Also he will likely face a strong challenge for the 2020 Presidential bid within his party if he survives a full term till 2020.

Given such outlook, likely Donald Trump would become more and more desperate in maintaining the majority in the Congress. Desperation probably would lead to taking more and unnecessary high risks. As most of his best advisors are gone and now surrounded by like-minded hawks, the perils of groupthink under such circumstances are much more heigthened and the enactment of "Bay of Pigs 2" groupthink fiasco may become more and more of a reality.

Above article posted by Leo81

Singapore's Killing Fields

Singapore's own Killing Fields were forgotten by many, history let to rest. No one wants to talk about it any more. Why would they want to bring up bad memories that would tarnish their good friends, embarrass them for their crime against humanity when they regard the Japanese as the highly respected and most trusted big power in Asia, according to a silly banana.

Thank you Aqil Haziq Mahmud for bringing these Killing Fields to light again.

After more than 70 years, the painful memories of those whose loved ones were massacred by the brutal invading Japanese soldiers would linger on, would not go away. Many children lived without their parents, parents without their children, wives and daughters without their husbands and brothers. The tragedies of this dark chapter of a hapless people cruelly rounded up and shot and buried in mud, without coffin or ceremony, must never be forgotten. The ugly Japanese, the beasts of WW2, thought a few words of apologies and some money would be enough to erase the pain and suffering and the horrors of those that fell victims and their families. Did they return the loots, the national treasures? No way. Such barbaric crime against humanity cannot be forgotten, except by the rootless and shameless bananas.

Hundreds of thousands were killed in cold blood and in glee by the insane and senseless Japanese. And the lying and deceitful Japanese as usual put the death toll at a measly 5,000. Such blatant refusal to admit the truth and their evil crime against the civilians of Singapore and other parts of Asia and SE Asia is the hallmark of the Japanese, and it is baffling that some daft, descendants of the victims of Japanese aggression, would regard them as the most trusted big power in Asia, and supporting the remilitarisation of Japan to conduct wars again. In China alone they massacred more than 30 million Chinese.

Below are some extracts from Aqil's article in the Channel News Asia on 7 April 18 on the Singapore killing fields.

"Mr Goh, who was aged 25 at the time, had just uncovered a mass grave filled with piles of bones belonging to victims of the Second World War. This was near Jalan Puay Poon in Bedok, close to where Temasek Junior College now sits.

The victims were killed in Operation Sook Ching, a “purge” campaign targeted at the Chinese in Singapore. Those suspected of being anti-Japanese were hauled into lorries and executed at remote locations across the island. Jalan Puay Poon was one of the killing grounds.

According to a National Library Board resource, the Japanese put the official Sook Ching death count at 5,000, although the actual figure is believed to be much higher...Mr Goh, now 81, estimated that thousands were killed and buried at the Jalan Puay Poon site, which contained several mass graves. 

“We didn’t dare touch it, so we quickly covered it,” Mr Goh said of his discovery. Eventually the bones were dug out, washed with water and disinfectant, then dried in the sun. Once ready, they were put in 1m-tall funeral jars.

Mr Goh would also go on to scour at least 10 other sites in places like Punggol, Bukit Timah and Choa Chu Kang. The exhumations lasted at least six years, producing 681 jars of bones that were filled to the brim....(RB-Many were also massacred on the beaches of Pulau Blakang Mati now Sentosa, East Coast, Punggol and Changi).

But the sheer size of the Jalan Puay Poon site meant the four-man squad was overwhelmed. Eventually, more than 50 people worked over a year to exhume the bones there....Workers toiled in the sweltering heat from 9am to 6pm, six days a week....The remains were transported by lorry to the Civilian War Memorial on Beach Road. Each truck could only carry 30 jars to avoid breaking them....

Mr Goh said 38 lorries would pull in at the Jalan Puay Poon site. “At 9am they lined people up one by one and started shooting,” he recalled. “The gunshots were never-ending.” This would go on till the evening."

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/grave-bones-world-war-ii-victims-singapore-sook-ching-10089202

Trade war offers great opportunities for Singapore

The trade war between China and the US offers great opportunities for Singapore despite doomsayers saying the contrary. When China cancels all its orders for soya beans and pork and other food stuff, and this could also apply to Boeing aircraft, the American producers and manufacturers would have their hands full of these products that their warehouses could not hold. What are they going to do with all the foodstuff and beans and aircraft?  There will be over production, over capacity and over employment that would need to be shed.

Who has the money to buy these excess produce and aircraft? If Singapore is smart, ask for fire sale prices. Make sure they are dirt cheap. The Americans must sell, desperate to sell, and there would not be many buyers with the dole. It will be buyer’s market.

What would Singapore do with the purchases? For aircraft, there is SIA and its subsidiaries to pick them up. SIA then can cancel its orders for Boeings as well. With the fire sales, there is no need to go ahead with the orders at high prices. Sorry Trump, you slapped Singapore with Broadcom, now it is only fair that Singapore strikes back.

Singapore can also quietly negotiate with China, the original buyer of Boeings to offer them at greatly reduced prices and make a commision just by being the middleman. This can also apply to the soya beans, pork and whatever. The real end losers would be the American farmers and Boeings and other American producers. China could pick up the same stuff for a song with Singapore making the money and the Americans making the losses.

Singapore should quickly send a special team to the US to pick up these great bargains that come once in a life time. But don't tell Trump that Singapore is capitalising on the spoils of war. Tell Trump Singapore is there to help. Trade war is good for Singapore. Let them fight and Singapore can pick up the pieces.

What do you think? There are caveats of course. The relations between Singapore and the US and China must be really good, not fake good. And the price must be really dirt cheap for China to want to buy.

Now is saying that trade war is bad?