China’s strategic interest to be the Number One super power

It would be hypocritical to take the position that China does not have the ambition or aspiration to be the Number One super power in the world.  But there is a big difference being the Number One super power and world dominance or hegemony like behaving like an Empire. The Number One super power China is pursuing is a status by virtue of its wealth and influence rather than military domination and oppression. China will eclipse the USA as the Number One super power but on its own terms. China will want to win this war with the Americans cheaply, without having to go to war with the Americans. And this goal of a peaceful transition of power is a long one. China is patient, is in no hurry, and time is on China’s side.

China’s strategic plan to take over world leadership from the Americans is based on a two prong strategy in the economic and military fronts. Militarily, China does not need to over take the Americans in military hardware. There is no need for China to have seven fleets of naval armada to police the seven seas. This is obsolete in the 21^st Century and in theChinese strategy. Only an anachronistic Empire still thinks of ruling the seven seas.

With a policy of non intervention in the domestic affairs of foreign countries, without the need to conduct regime change, and without the ambition of occupying foreign land and setting up foreign military bases, all archaic concepts of an imperial empire, China does not have to spend extravagantly on its armed forces. China only needs to maintain a sufficient force to keep the Americans from their wildness, to stop them from thinking that it is possible to fight a war with China and win.  A strong enough deterrent force to check the Americans from becoming reckless and trigger happy would be more than enough to maintain peace between the two super powers. China could thus spend modestly on defence while allowing the Americans to continue to indulge in their extravagant ways in military spending. The Americans will spend itself to poverty if unchecked.

With the military front covered and maintained at status quo, China will move rapidly in the economic front to invest all over the world and gain influence and leadership in economic development and commerce, in infrastructure development, in financial assistance, anything but the use of military force. This is an area that the Americans would not be able to compete with China’s cheap labour and cheap cost of production and cheap finance with no political strings attached. China has been making big strides in South America, Europe, Africa and Central Asia. Its next big target will be South and Southeast Asia. When these two regions accept Chinese investments and infrastructure development, China’s economic conquest of the world will be more or less complete. By then the Americans would be left alone as a solitary military power but unable to do anything with its military might. It will be a new prosperous world under Chinese leadership in economic development, in peace.

Of course in the process the Americans would try their best to incite and provoke wars, regional wars, to upset and derail the Chinese plan for world leadership. How many countries would be sucked into the American military pipe dream of empire building, to start wars and to fight wars, when they have all to gain in peace and to grow and prosper and elevate the quality of life for their people? Who would want wars when they can have peace and prosperity?

China has already seized the initiative in economic cooperation and development with the rest of the world without asserting any military or political pressure on countries that it is investing and helping to rebuild. The economic benefits to these countries are tangible and immediate. Compare what China is doing in Central Asia, Africa, South America and what the Americans are doing in the Middle East, in agitating and provoking tensions in East Asia and the South China Sea.  China is moving in with money and expertise for economic and infrastructure development. The Americans are moving in with all their military hardware and weapons of war, to set up military bases and to start wars.

The strategies of both the Chinese and the Americans for world supremacy are in stark contrast and not difficult to see except for those that chose not to see. Who shall eventually triumph and win this war for influence over the world? The Americans would be left with crazy allies that are trigger happy and think war is fun and glorious. China would be gaining fans in countries that it invested and brought economic growth and prosperity to their people in peace.

The battle has begun in a long protracted war in all corners of the world, without the use of guns and bullets. It may take several decades for the victor to stand on the rostrum in a war without bloodshed and with winners everywhere. Should the Americans win this war, it would be a brutal and devastating world war and nothing much will be left standing and could also mark the end of civilization.

Some western analysts are speculating that China would want to push the Americans out of the western Pacific by force. This is too shallow a view to come from supposedly serious thinking people. The cost of a military conflict with the Americans is unimaginable. China would avoid an all out war with the Americans at all cost unless forced into it. There is nothing to be gained by the Chinese except to bear huge losses of lives and the destruction of their country and with no certainty of winning. China would seek to win this war peacefully, by economic means.

At some point in time the rest of the world would have to choose between peaceful economic development and progress led by China or continuous tension, armed conflicts and destruction led by the Americans.

Cynical Investor’s take on my comments on opposition candidates and unity

After the rout of the 2015 GE, the political scene has quiet down by several hundred decibels. Only a few political commentators are left writing about local politics. The IPS did a big survey on the possible reasons for the collapse of the opposition camp in the GE with fairly similar conclusions as those coming out from the social media.

The two points that I made on opposition unity and rounding up of credible candidates are something practical to do but would not guarantee that they will win the next GE but would definitely put them in a much stronger position to take the PAP head on. How the opposition is going to form a coalition and what this coalition will be like is amorphous and there is no absolute formula for it. It would depend on the opposition leaders to work out what kind of coalition they would be comfortable with as each party and leaders would have very strong views on that. It may be a loser coalition, something like the Pakatan Rakyat of Malaysia when uncomfortable they may be about each other’s manifestos or objectives, there is still a common enemy to face. To propose or suggest a formula from anyone is premature and may not even be welcomed.

As for the credible candidates available today versus the loose cannons, let’s be polite and not to be too specific and personal. The credible opposition party leaders would know who are the better candidates to fish out from the mirky waters. It is not necessary that one must have a Ph D or be a lawyer or doctor to be a good politician or national leader. What is important is the heart must be in the right place, that the well being of Singaporeans must be the most important goal for whoever that wants to lead the country. Definitely you do not want pretenders or people that would sell out the interests of Singaporeans even if they are genius in their own fields.

The present loose opposition camp with all the talents scattered would not do. There are many good candidates appearing in the last GE. They did not lose because they were no good. Many were any time better than the PAP candidates. There were many factors and unknowns that shaped the result of the last GE. Many of the factors would not be around or would still have the same effects in the next GE. The PAP possibly have maxed out their advantages and political capital this round. When the political wind changes, the same batch of good opposition candidates could turn out to be winners. Good and bad, credible and not credible are relative. And in a GE there are many imponderables that would determine the final outcome.

What the opposition camp needs to do is to strengthen their position, regroup their forces to fight a better fight. How the voters would cast their votes, if all things are fair and equal, is anyone’s guess. No one has a solution that can ensure success for the opposition, not me, not any of the opposition leaders, not anyone. The opposition leaders must get working now and not to let time to slip by and wait for the wind to change. 4 years could pass at a wink and the new faces of the last election would be more matured and seasoned and could be better recognized by working for it from now till the next GE.

A GE is not just about the two weeks of campaigning. The campaigning starts now. The ground work starts now. The coalition work starts now. They need to build this up to be in time for the next GE. They did to do something more substantive to make a difference. Not doing anything is not an option. If the next GE is going to be the same, then it would be a waste of time for the opposition camp. They need to make things happen in the next GE by working for it now.

Nikkei Asian Review delirious about American adventure in the South China Sea

I just went through some articles in the Nikkei Asian Review and could not miss the trend of thoughts of the Japanese. They are delirious that a war between the US and China is in the offing. Here is a short article of the Japanese high expectation.

‘October 20, 2015 1:00 pm JST

US Third Fleet

115 naval vessels ready to help in west Pacific

KEN MORIYASU, Nikkei staff writer

TOKYO -- Vice Adm. Nora Tyson, the first female fleet commander in the history of the U.S. Navy, is responsible for the 115 vessels and 60,000 sailors that make up the powerful Third Fleet. Although the fleet's area of responsibility lies in the eastern Pacific -- an area extending from the international date line near Hawaii to the U.S. West Coast -- Tyson said she is ready to deploy her ships to the tension-prone western Pacific to assist the Seventh Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Japan.’

 

The key question is whether the Americans would be crazy enough to be nudged into a war with China over Chinese islands 10 thousands miles from their occupied Indian territories. By the look of things, the Americans may be tempted to be trigger happy with their overwhelming naval forces and fire power.

China should send a message to Obama that all the DF21s and DF26s anti ship and anti aircraft carrier missiles are on alert and will welcome the American warships with open arms. This would be a polite way to tell the Americans that China has a very cheap way to play with their warships, sailors and airmen. The batteries of China’s anti ship missiles are dotting the coast of China and would be sent to shower the American warships with Christmas lightings by the push of a few buttons. Quite easily and cheaply done.

The Americans may want to test the effectiveness and destructive nature of these anti ship missiles to prove they are right, that they are superior in the high seas with two aircraft carrier fleets at their disposal. The ball is in the American court and the Japanese would be the happy bystander, killing two birds with one stone.

How many of our politicians did not serve NS?

To be more specific, how many of our current serving politicians that are of NS age but did not serve NS? And how many are new citizens or not Singaporean by birth? This question will increasingly be raised by the people when more and more foreigners are being invited to become political/national leaders, to think and to serve the Singaporeans.

The big question in the minds of the true blue citizens would be this: You mean these people are better than Singapore born citizens, that we cannot find better Singapore born citizens than them to be our national leaders? Look at every one of them and ask, are they really that exceptional that they are the best, better than our Singapore born citizens and better than the men that have served NS and committed to defend this country with their lives?

You really believe that all the Singapore men are duds, not better than the foreign born citizens especially those that somehow did not have to serve NS?

What do you think?

The 1.5 quadrillion dollar derivative bubble waiting to go bust

I too could not imagine how big is 1.5 quadrillion dollars. Let’s hear what Michael Snyder said about this 1.5 quadrillion problem and what it has to do with derivatives.

“Today there is a horrific derivatives bubble that threatens to destroy not only the U.S. economy but the entire world financial system as well, but unfortunately the vast majority of people do not understand it. When you say the word “derivatives” to most Americans, they have no idea what you are talking about. In fact, even most members of the U.S. Congress don’t really seem to understand them. But you don’t have to get into all the technicalities to understand the bigger picture….

Well, the truth is that the danger that we face from derivatives is so great that Warren Buffet has called them “financial weapons of mass destruction”. Unfortunately, he is not exaggerating. It would be hard to understate the financial devastation that we could potentially be facing. A number of years back, French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as “financial AIDS”. The reality is that when this bubble pops there won’t be enough money in the entire world to fix it. But ignorance is bliss, and most people simply do not understand these complex financial instruments enough to be worried about them. Unfortunately, just because most of us do not understand the danger does not mean that the danger has been eliminated….

One day some event will happen which will cause a sudden shift in world financial markets and trillions of dollars of losses in derivatives will create a tsunami that will bring the entire house of cards down. All of the money in the world will not be enough to bail out the financial system when that day arrives. The truth is that we should have never allowed world financial markets to become a giant casino. But we did. Soon enough we will all pay the price, and when that disastrous day comes, most Americans will still not understand what is happening.”

The above were extracts from Michael Snyder’s article at http://themillenniumreport.com/2014/07/will-the-1-5-quadrillion-derivatives-market-collapse-in-2015/

This is a chilling article of how the whole world is allowing the floating of a hot air balloon into the stratosphere and waiting for it to go bang. There are so many experts and men of wisdom who could see the danger of this monster created by the financial thugs in New York and in all western model financial centres and crying out loud. It is not crying wolf just to frighten the children. The cries and pleas are for the financial thugs to stop this scam and unwind. Unfortunately, at this point in time there is no option to unwind but to keep blowing the bubble. Any attempt to unwind would cause a panic riot and deflate the bubble just as well. It is not that they did not understand and insisting of blowing it bigger. They knew the danger and are just praying that the bubble would not go bust.

Singapore is not so daft to pretend that it did not know and did not see the danger of this gigantic bubble. No, they are pretending to be daft, pretending that if it is ok in the US and Europe, it should be ok for us. If the West is not afraid of the bubble, why should we. If we don’t join them we will miss the boat. Let’s all pretend that all is well and blow our very own derivative bubble and join the party. If it goes bust, we can’t be blamed. Is there a need to sign an indemnity or disclaimer form like after the Lehman bonds and toxic notes now before blowing the bubble? And who should be the one to sign the forms first, the people selling the derivatives, the regulators or the ‘sophisticated clients’ aka rich and stupid and did not know what the fund managers are doing with their money but have millions to lose?

Singapore has now boarded the derivative hot air balloon and enjoying the ride. It is trying to play catch up with the West by pumping more hot air and cheering as the derivative balloon gets bigger and flying higher. Higher, higher, there is plenty of room to go higher. Derivatives are the way to go, to blow the top. There is absolutely no danger of a derivative bubble bust. We know what we are doing.

Did they not see the warning signs and the calls to curb this derivative monster? What warning signs, what monster? What would happen if the derivative bubble goes bust? Oh, they have all signed the disclaimer and waiver of indemnity forms. So should be alright. Not my problem. The ‘sophisticated clients’ have all signed their licence to lose all their monies.

Heng ah!