SG2015 – New kids on the block

The 9 days of hustings in this GE have thrown up a few new faces that would likely to create waves when the results are known on Saturday morning and the next decades to come. Two of the greatest finds happened to be from the SDP in Chee Soon Juan and Paul Tambyah.  Chee Soon Juan, the come back kid, has endeared himself with the crowd that turned up at the SDP rally. And the crowd size kept growing till the final night of the rally at Clementi Avenue 6. The muddy field did not stop them from coming and the reception was befitting of a politician thrown into the wilderness and coming back in glory. The crowd simply loved him, for his oratory, for his sincerity despite efforts to demonise him, to share the pains he had to go through with his wife and children. For several nights, the crowd stayed back for him to autograph his books, waiting for hours, waiting patiently in long winding queues. The force is with him, with the people standing with him. No more is Chee Soon Juan the feared, and the leper he was made out to be. They see in him a potential PM in waiting. The signs are all favourable for this man like the stars in alignment.

Standing closely on his side is Paul Tambyah, a man that could easily be another minister in the PAP cabinet. Tambyah spoke about the sufferings of the common man in an area that he knew best, healthcare. He spoke in a calm and professor like manner unlike some behaving like hooligans and gangsters. The crowd listened to him intently and appreciated what this man was all about, a very good man needed to speak in Parliament for the people. They trusted and liked him. They see another good man speaking out for the people, with all honesty and integrity, very real, no bunkum.

The WP also has a few pleasant surprises in Daniel Goh and Leon Perera. Both were of the same generic DNA that the PAP sort after. They were eloquent and sincere men that have stepped forward on their own to join the opposition camp, not waiting to be invited for tea. And there is Cambridge graduate He Ting Ru, another young lady in the likes of Nicole Seah. These three candidates could be the shining stars of the WP if given more time, exposure and coverage by the media for what they deserved. They provide depth to the leadership in the WP and augur well for the party. It was unfortunate that not much coverage was given to them, but that cannot deny them for showing their potential that could only grow and blossom in the near future.

Another very strong candidate is Lim Tean from the NSP. This is a man that exudes leadership, well articulate and has a commanding voice to go along. People like to listen to him. How could the PAP miss him when he is in the right industry that the PAP often seen digging into, a lawyer? PAP’s lost is the opposition’s gain. This man would go far if he is in a stronger party. This round NSP is troubled by a lot of resignations and negative news that put a question mark on the credibility of the party and its future well being. In the WP or SDP camp, Lim Tean would be a force to contend with and likely to waltz into Parliament.

The SingFirst has its two kingpins in Tan Jee Say and Ang Yong Guan, two second time veterans that are quite well respected.

In the PAP camp, there were a few promising newcomers in Ng Chee Meng, Mervin Yong, and Chee Hong Tat. It was a pity that their presence was not felt, more likely because the party is too big and there are still too many ministers calling the shot with a few ahead of them trying hard to impress. They were given too little exposure to be on the spotlight. Their speeches were not of the same stuff as the opposition camp that could arouse the emotions of the crowd. Could they do better if they were speaking from the other side of the camp? They were touted as ministerial material in the same group as Chan Chun Sing, Tan Chuan Jin and Lawrence Wong. Maybe they were simply out shone by the veterans in the PAP that are still dominating the stage.  Maybe they were given too little to show how good they are or could be. None of them really stood out on their own as exceptional and worth listening to, to draw the crowd, to mesmerize the crowd like the great leaders they are expected to be.

Other than the veterans that could still hold the attention of the crowd, the top crowd pullers among the new kids that really made a difference must be Chee Soon Juan and Paul Tambyah. Many are hoping and wanting them to be in Parliament. Would that be the case? Whatever, they have made their presence felt in the last 9 days of election rallies on stage.

SG100 – Your future

Is SG100 going to be celebrated in greater style, with more pomp and pageantry? One thing for sure, each HDB flat is likely to cost $2m or more.  By then the value of money would have taken a big tumble. A cleaner would be earning $10k pm but living under poverty line. The ministers would be paid $50m to keep pace with the high property prices. Cars would no longer be within the reach of the majority of the population. Only the super rich could afford them.

What is going to feature prominently in the lives of the average Singaporeans would be the expiry of their HDB leases. Many flats would be at the end of their 99 year lease and the value will revert to zero. Many would have to find $2m or $3m to buy a HDB flat. There would be fewer upgraders to take advantage of their appreciated HDB value to sell and buy bigger flats as the prices of HDB flats would all be tumbling.

The big question, how many could still afford to buy HDB flats? How many could afford to upgrade? Would other properties be able to hold on to their stratospheric prices?

SG100 will be a time when prices of old HDB flats will return to ground zero to many HDB lessees. Are you one of them or your children will be one of them? Many beautiful dreams of home owners will be dashed for good and they would have to start all over again in a new cycle. HDB flats that were worth $1m or $2m would be put up for sale at $50k or $20k depending on the years or months left at the tail end of the lease. No need to take loans, people can buy them for the price of a song, in cash. The average Singaporean’s monthly income would be $50k or $100k. All the people will be very rich with a lot of fiat currency that is worth as much as the banana currency of the Japanese Occupation.

Welcome to SG100, the year your HDB lease expires.

GE2015 Results – A hopeful assessment

On the morning of 12 Sep PAP is likely to be returned to power but with a smaller majority. On a fairly hopeful estimate, PAP should still end up with 63 seats with 26 seats going to the opposition. Among the likely GRCs to go will be Aljunied, East Coast, Marine Parade, Tanjong Pagar and Holland Bukit Timah. For the SMC, Huogang and Punggol East will stay with the WP plus Fengshan, MacPherson, Mountbatten and Potong Pasir joining the opposition camp.

There are a few borderline GRCs that could go either way. Ang Mo Kio, Tampines, West Coast and Chua Chu Kang have a slim outsider chance to go the other way if there is a strong swing in favour of the opposition. So too were a few SMCs like Bukit Panjang, Sengkang West and Yuhua.  Assuming luck is on the opposition side and half of these were to go, that would add another 11 seats to the 26 to make 37, still far short of the 50% mark.

Short of a miracle or ground swell, PAP will still be returned to Parliament with a comfortable majority though a bit painful for losing quite a number of ministers along the way. The people can look forward for more good years with the PAP charting the course towards SG100 and 10m population with more foreign talents. It would still be a good fight for the opposition for proving that going forward the PAP can only become weaker and weaker and the 2020 GE is likely to see a real change when more able people would come forward to join the opposition camp encouraged by what they see in this GE.

It is not so easy to remove a party that has been entrenched in power for 50 years unless there is a miracle, like a tsunami. This can only happen when the people lost trust in the PAP.  Would this happen in this GE? If it does, the final result would be totally different and a new govt will be installed.

PAP – What is happening?

The most recognizable political brand, the most respected and trusted brand for the past 50 years, has turned into a brand that is being hated in some corners of the island. Its election posters have been torn, sprayed painted and according to Victor Lye, thrown into a bin used for burning joss papers in the ghost festival month. And his personal encounters were not pleasant. He had been told to get lost, received angry stares and hostile remarks that he and his PAP team are not wanted in Aljunied.

It must all be because of the people’s fault, ungrateful. How can they treat the PAP team like that? Or is it the WP’s fault? It cannot be the fault of the PAP right? The PAP has been taking so good care of the people, treating the people so fairly, even in opposition wards, how can it be the fault of the PAP?

It cannot be the leaders of PAP, all flawless men and women, selfless and working for the people’s interest. It cannot be the policies as all policies are for the good of Singaporeans. I am now so lost as to why the people of Aljunied are so hostile to the PAP team. They never paste stamp on their eyes?

What is happening?

Ang Mo Kio GRC – The chips in play

Hsien Loong is going to face his strongest critics in Roy Ngerng and in a way M Ravi and Gilbert Goh on his policies in a battle that all eyes will be watching. Now what has Hsien Loong got on his aside against a team led by 3 celebrities in their own right, 3 people’s champion on CPF, human rights and PMETs. He still retains some of the previous team in Intan, Ang Hin Kee and Gan Thiam Poh. Other than Intan who has gained fame and recognition in the wrong way in the Yang Yin affair, the other two are just what they are, just MPs. Newcomer David Daryl is well recognized as a TV host and a newbie in politics and may have some boyish charm to boot. As for Koh Poh Koon, the son of Punggol, the overplay of him being of Punggol and wanting to serve Punggol but now flipping over to Ang Mo Kio may be a let down. Would he be calling himself and Ang Mo Kia now?

Overall, Hsien Loong is likely to be fighting the battle himself and would have to draw deeply into his own pulling power to make a difference. Being the son of LKY may help to some extent given the outpouring of grief during his father’s funeral. There is really nothing much he could fall back on from his team and it is more likely that they will hang on to his tailcoat and hoping for an easy ride to parliament. This is turning out to be something they have not expected, especially in the case of the son of Punggol. Ang Mo Kio is no longer an easy and safe ward to take a ride.

The 3 champions from the Reform Party would have their own followers and fans. How big is this following is untested. What is going to be on their side will be the pet issues each of them represented. CPF money is going to play a big part on the emotions of the voters. Remember, when it hurts the pocket, it hurts deeply. If Roy can play this up to his advantage, whether the voters are PAP or anti PAP, Roy is fighting for their money. This issue alone may tip the scale.

And if it does not carry enough weight, the displaced PMETs and their families, hurt badly by the govt’s reckless policy to bring in foreigners to take their jobs could just add enough weight to sink the sampan in Ang Mo Kio. Those who are against death penalties, the human rights supporters would be on Ravi’s side for sure.

These are 3 major issues that the Hsien Loong has no answers to except to deflect as much as he can. And there are a lot of more of hot button issues other than these to stir the crowd.  Reform Party does not have to face any accusation of incompetence in running town councils and this bullet would be ineffective.

What can the Hsien Loong team used to take the initiative from the 3 champions? How able calling them mad, losers, irresponsible or whatever tags to tag on them? Would the tag or branding work? Many people still believe in Roy and Ravi. Gilbert is on safe ground. Many people are ready to bankroll Roy in his fight against Hsien Loong on the CPF issue.

One thing for sure, Hsien Loong would have to work for his money this time. This is no cake walk. Hsien Loong would be on the defensive from the word go. The final result is going to be very unpredictable. To say that Hsien Loong may be in for a thrashing is not too far fetch even if he is the incumbent PM, the son of LKY. The odds should still be in Hsien Loong’s favour unless the pain of CPF money being ‘tangkap’ is unbearable and will make the difference.

And don’t forget that Hsien Loong’s team is made up of flawless men and women without a black mark in their lives. The Reform Party candidates are the normal average Singaporeans with many flaws and black marks like any ordinary men. It is not easy for ordinary men to compete with flawless and exceptionally clean men and women.