Ang Mo Kio GRC – The chips in play

Hsien Loong is going to face his strongest critics in Roy Ngerng and in a way M Ravi and Gilbert Goh on his policies in a battle that all eyes will be watching. Now what has Hsien Loong got on his aside against a team led by 3 celebrities in their own right, 3 people’s champion on CPF, human rights and PMETs. He still retains some of the previous team in Intan, Ang Hin Kee and Gan Thiam Poh. Other than Intan who has gained fame and recognition in the wrong way in the Yang Yin affair, the other two are just what they are, just MPs. Newcomer David Daryl is well recognized as a TV host and a newbie in politics and may have some boyish charm to boot. As for Koh Poh Koon, the son of Punggol, the overplay of him being of Punggol and wanting to serve Punggol but now flipping over to Ang Mo Kio may be a let down. Would he be calling himself and Ang Mo Kia now?

Overall, Hsien Loong is likely to be fighting the battle himself and would have to draw deeply into his own pulling power to make a difference. Being the son of LKY may help to some extent given the outpouring of grief during his father’s funeral. There is really nothing much he could fall back on from his team and it is more likely that they will hang on to his tailcoat and hoping for an easy ride to parliament. This is turning out to be something they have not expected, especially in the case of the son of Punggol. Ang Mo Kio is no longer an easy and safe ward to take a ride.

The 3 champions from the Reform Party would have their own followers and fans. How big is this following is untested. What is going to be on their side will be the pet issues each of them represented. CPF money is going to play a big part on the emotions of the voters. Remember, when it hurts the pocket, it hurts deeply. If Roy can play this up to his advantage, whether the voters are PAP or anti PAP, Roy is fighting for their money. This issue alone may tip the scale.

And if it does not carry enough weight, the displaced PMETs and their families, hurt badly by the govt’s reckless policy to bring in foreigners to take their jobs could just add enough weight to sink the sampan in Ang Mo Kio. Those who are against death penalties, the human rights supporters would be on Ravi’s side for sure.

These are 3 major issues that the Hsien Loong has no answers to except to deflect as much as he can. And there are a lot of more of hot button issues other than these to stir the crowd.  Reform Party does not have to face any accusation of incompetence in running town councils and this bullet would be ineffective.

What can the Hsien Loong team used to take the initiative from the 3 champions? How able calling them mad, losers, irresponsible or whatever tags to tag on them? Would the tag or branding work? Many people still believe in Roy and Ravi. Gilbert is on safe ground. Many people are ready to bankroll Roy in his fight against Hsien Loong on the CPF issue.

One thing for sure, Hsien Loong would have to work for his money this time. This is no cake walk. Hsien Loong would be on the defensive from the word go. The final result is going to be very unpredictable. To say that Hsien Loong may be in for a thrashing is not too far fetch even if he is the incumbent PM, the son of LKY. The odds should still be in Hsien Loong’s favour unless the pain of CPF money being ‘tangkap’ is unbearable and will make the difference.

And don’t forget that Hsien Loong’s team is made up of flawless men and women without a black mark in their lives. The Reform Party candidates are the normal average Singaporeans with many flaws and black marks like any ordinary men. It is not easy for ordinary men to compete with flawless and exceptionally clean men and women.

Boon Wan – No guarantee PAP will still be in power on 12 Sep

‘There is no safe seat where victory is assured. It is not a by elction where a PAP govt is intact. All 89 seats are being contested. We cannot be sure of a PAP govt on 12 Sep.’

The above statement by Boon Wan made headline in yesterday’s ST. The immediate to such a stark comment is, what is the purpose or what is the intent or motive to make such a remark? Is this an honest assessment of the position in the GE? In many ways it is a fair statement. Never in the history of the PAP since it was entrenched as the single dominant political party in the country has it gone to a GE with no safe seats. It used to be confident of winning at least 75% of the seats in every GE and even confirmed to be the govt when nomination closed.

Today the PAP is facing very serious and credible challenges from the opposition with equally good and serious candidates to take on the PAP. They are no pushovers. PAP ministers are no winners and many are liabilities. This is how the cards are being stacked. The possibility of the PAP winning by a small margin or even losing its majority cannot be ruled out.

On the other hand the opposition camp is shouting fear mongering. The PAP is playing on fear and scare tactics to win over voters sitting on the fence and did not want to see the PAP out of power. There are also elements of truth in this view. And Boon Wan’s subsequent comments confirmed this. He warned the voters not to play with their votes and find themselves with a weak govt. He warned them of the severe and tragic consequences if PAP is going to form a weak govt or not at all. He is striking fear in the people to vote PAP.

Both views are as real and truthful as you can get. The PAP is not the same PAP as before and not longer has the absolute trust of the people. The PAP has proven to be capable of making many foul ups and policies with serious consequences on the lives of the people. The PAP as been seen as one that made all the fouls ups but claimed credit for stop gap measures and solutions to patch up their mistakes. And there are still many serious policies in place and would be accelerated once they get the same mandate to do as they pleased. And treating the people as daft with their fake and flimsy excuses, like such fear tactics or the people can have opposition voice in parliament in the form of NMPs and NCMPs, and to continue flouting it as a good thing is such too condescending. The people are not daft and may would be offended by being treated as unthinking children.

Yes, there is a reasonable probability that the PAP would be routed in this GE. They would not be able to get a clean sweep as they did before and many seats will fall. And the fear mongering tactic is again adopted to attempt to steer the swing votes back to the PAP.

Would it work? Would the PAP still win the same kind of mandate or be history? The people, the thinking voters, not the daft voters, would make a difference in the fate of the PAP. Keep thinking that the people are daft and treating them as daft and the result will reflect this mentality, whether the PAP is daft or the people are daft.

Malaysia – Pro Malay Rights Protest 16 Sep

A pro Malay Rights group is organizing this protest on Wed 16 Sep. The protestors will be wearing red and have been reported to be practicing and demonstrating martial arts and fighting skills in the main media. They showed their prowess in breaking sticks and tiles.

The police are not giving approval to this protest citing security reasons. But the protestors said they would continue with the protest to be held in Chinese majority areas. UMNO leaders have said they would attend if invited.

Singaporeans are best advised to give Malaysia a miss on this day. Better to stay away as the signs are ominous.

Paul Tambyah - A PAP fall out

In 2011, out of the blue came this professor standing on the SDP stage to speak to the crowd at Raffles Place. Everyone was wondering where he came from. Today, in the same spot, in the same SDP stage, Paul Tambyah has returned, this time as a SDP candidate standing for the Holland Bukit Timah GRC with Chee Soon Juan, another come back boy.

Paul Tambyah has awed the crowd by his humility and sincerity, the professor with the common man demeanour, with no airs and talking sense. Many see this professor as the best thing to happen for this GE and have high praises and good words for him. They are calling for the voters to send this man to Parliament on 12 Sep together with his SDP team mates.

Paul Tambyah’s speech was impressive, no vitriol, no personal attacks but dealing with the policies and the good of Singaporeans. He also praised Tharman and a few of the PAP candidates for addressing issues and policies and not reverting to gutter politics of yesteryears. He also shared with the crowd a private aspiration in the opposition camp that they secretly hoped for Tharman to fall out with Hsien Loong and come out to lead a coalition like the Pakatan Rakyat of Malaysia.

Many Singaporeans have been hopeful for a split within the PAP led by Chok Tong.  But that is looking far more remote with Chok Tong’s star fading with age, though not entirely impossible. A break away Tharman is a more promising alternative given the fact that everyone perceived him to be the better man for the PM job. And Tharman himself must also agree in confidence that this is indeed the truth. And if only he has the ambition or aspiration to be the PM one day, it is a matter of time before he makes his move. If Hsien Loong fares badly in the GE, if he survives and not be voted out outright, Tharman could pose a challenge to his weaken leadership. It would then be a case of either Hsien Loong goes or Tharman leaves, to lead a coalition of the opposition camp, and be the PM in the shadow cabinet.

The big question, does Tharman has the ambition or aspiration? In an interview at the SG50 Celebration forum, Tharman was posed the same question of his intent to be the PM by Fareed Zakaria. He tried to evade the question and did not want to say No to the prospect. He was finally cornered and had to say yes if called upon.

Being the best man in all aspects, it is very difficult to hold down such a good man from his rightful place. Tharman is not the Duke of Zhou who voluntarily abdicated to give way to his sibling to be the King of Zhou Dynasty. Tharman must be bidding his time and this GE will be the opportune moment to force him to make his move, either became the PM within PAP or outside PAP in a coalition.

In a hypothetical scenario, if the opposition camp could win 30 seats, Tharman only needs to convince 20 PAP MPs to join him in a walk out to form a coalition govt and be the PM designate. If the law does not allow this to happen, a new GE would have to be called with a Singapore Pakatan Rakyat headed by Tharman leading the coalition. This scenario may look far fetch at the moment but in politics, without LKY around, the ball is round.

What do you think?

Parables of the holy ghost

There are two kinds of people that would talk in parables, the worldly wise and the worldly not so wise.  These few days many people have been talking in parables. The new oracle has also been in the game of speaking in parables, maybe next will be speaking in tongue.

The first parable is the crowing of the rooster. Like in all parables, the real meaning of the parable is up to the individual to interpret. The rooster parable has been interpreted as an arrogant cock thinking that the sun rises because it crows every morning. Another interpretation is that the cock crows to wake up the sleepy heads to start to work.

There is also the parable of the nomads. Who are the nomads, just like who are the quitters? The parable did not explain why there are nomads and why they are quitters.

The latest parable is about cruise ship. There are cruise ships sailing with a captain and knowing where it is going. There are cruise ships cruising to nowhere. Depending on the individuals, some like to cruise to no where, some like to know where they are going, some did not know where they are going but allow the captain to take them wherever the captain thinks is good. Some have good faith in the captain taking them to the promise land and not into a sink hole.

There is a new twist to this parable. It was suggested that gamblers should take the cruise ship to nowhere where they can gamble and gamble in the cruise ship. Some gamblers said, why waste time there are two world class casinos for them to gamble till kingdom comes, so convenient, at the door step. If one wishes to cruise to no where, it is better to take a sampan.

There are many more parables in this GE, and also many riddles like the riddles of lost fund, but dunno got lost or not and still trumpeted as a loss. Just keep asking the question, dunno got lost or no lost and make the other party work day and night trying to figure out and trying to explain. This is like putting a few monkeys on a person’s shoulder and makes the monkeys do the monkey trick, making the person busy all for nothing.

There is also the riddle of why the police or CPIB are not after the lost money or anyone being caught and charge in court for the lost fund. Maybe they are waiting for the rooster to crow to start working. Maybe no money was lost and there is no need to be scurrying around like bull arse flies.