Roy Ngerng – Son of Chai Tau Kuay versus natural aristocracy

Can you believe it, it is happening. Earlier I made a post about this election turning into a contest between the ordinary average Singaporeans against the nobles and aristocrats, now we have a Chai Tau Kuay hawker’s son taking on the son of the aristocracy.

Roy Ngerng has announced that he is joining Kenneth’s Reform Party and he is going to contest in Ang Mo Kio GRC. He is bringing his fight to Hsien Loong’s home base, the unshakable fortress of PAP, the seed and source of PAP’s power as my gemancer friend told me. To shaken, loosen or to remove Hsien Loong from Ang Mo Kio will be a deafening blow to the story of the PAP. 

The issue now is what kind of team would Roy be able to garner to fight along his side to take on Hsien Loong’s team that are likely to be the best Hsien Loong could get. Oops, Ang Mo Kio is for once going to face a serious challenge and it is no longer a safe ward anymore. Light weights would not be allowed as they would weigh down on the sampan. Everyone in the team must now be able to carry his own weight. No more home run free.

And how would the battle be fought between one that has nothing to lose and one that has everything to lose? For sure, Hsien Loong would have his hands full and would not have the privilege to grace the rallies of weaker PAP teams. He is going to fight for his life, to be elected and to remain the PM. Losing Ang Mo Kio is unthinkable. It would likely be the turn for many ministers to take time off to speak in Ang Mo Kio’s rally to give him a helping hand.

And the issue will be Roy’s favourite topic, your CPF money. This will be the most uncomfortable and difficult topic for Hsien Loong to defend, if it is defendable. It hurts the people’s pocket, really painful. And the power logic used to lock up people’s life savings, to be spent on the miraculous Medisave Life, would be put to the severest test. Can power logic holds against the simple logic of my money, my pocket hurts? Power logic loses its power during an election campaign. It is a time of ‘boh cheng hu’ or no govt, no power. The logic of persuasion will be the logic that the voters will be listening to and to believe. No more, I think it is right so I just do it. It is time for the people to think if it is right and to vote accordingly.

The voters will also exercise this same logic, I think it is right so I vote for it. I vote what I think is right, not what you think is right. And many will vote with their pockets.

Just this issue itself will make many voters think very carefully, even emotionally, and illogically. Who doesn’t want to have his own money back, in his own pocket to do as he likes, to go to Batam, to find mei meis or good company, or to start a new biz? Seriously, many would know what they want to do with their life savings.

The GE will be the time for Roy to persuade them to vote for the return of their money and Hsien Loong would have to convince the people who badly need their money not to vote for their money, to vote to let the govt keep their money.

Which argument will be more persuasive? The Chai Tau Kuay son may not be of noble birth, but he has a simple argument, a simple logic that is hard to beat. The ordinary people will understand his simple logic and be on his side. Who does not want to have his own money back in his pocket? The nobility and noble logic of leaving the money in the CPF for the future, forever, will not have the kind of appeal to the people hard on cash.

This will be an uneven contest and will have an unusual ending.

PS. SingFirst and Reform Party are negotiating to contest this GRC. My guess, a combined team is very likely.

SDP at Marsiling Yew Tee

I delivered some Red Bean Soup to a few friends and bumped into the SDP Team preparing for their evening home visit to the residents of Marsiling Yew Tee. They were organised and enthusiastic in volunteering their time to the party, no free transport, no free chicken rice. The mode was optimism, joyful and all for a good cause.

Black Knights SG50 at Marina Barrage

Oh yes, the main performance was the logo of Sing First up in the sky, a big heart drawn by the Black Knights. What an omen of things to come.

MH370 – Grasping at straws from a man made straw man

The confirmation of the flaperon found in Reunion Island does not come as a surprise to anyone. It is just as good to confirm that the plane is gone and the passengers as well. What is funny and definitely uncomplimentary is the ongoings to confirm a farce that was a farce from the very beginning.

Let me quote a few paragraph from a Bloomberg report dated 6 Aug.

‘The absence of debris from the crash has confounded investigators. Previous crashes in water have almost always left floating debris, the bureau said in a briefing note on its website on Wednesday.

Much of that debris could have sunk by the time the surface search began in that area nine days after the plane disappeared.  

"By this time much of any debris left floating after the crash would likely have either sunk or have been dispersed," the bureau wrote. "The opportunity to locate and recover debris from the sea surface diminishes rapidly over the first few weeks from the time of a crash."

Investigators scanned 4.6 million square kilometres of ocean surface, with 29 aircraft carrying out 334 flights and 14 ships on the sea as part of the operation, Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said at a press conference in May.  

The search "initially, briefly, targeted the correct area," the bureau said on Wednesday, adding that this was the best chance investigators had to recover material….’

The search parties searched 4.6m square km of ocean but could not find a single debris and they said they targeted the correct area? Oops, they qualified by saying initially. For such a huge aircraft to crash into the sea, there must be plenty of debris floating around. When they could not locate a single piece it obviously said they were looking at the wrong area. And they even tried to convince the world that they did simulation of current to confirm that the wreckage originated from where they were searching!

When would they admit that someone had told a white lie and conned everyone to search in the wrong place? And Australia would stand up again to tell the world that they knew everything.

The appearance of these few pieces of debris is just as mysterious as the disappearance of the aircraft. Nothing fishy? No one smells anything amiss? Or was it concocted, just as planned and executed like the disappearance of MH370  to throw everyone into disarray for another year?

GE2015 – Order in disorder

This GE is going to be a very different GE from the past. Many things have changed, many variables have been taken out from the equation. There used to be disorder in the opposition camp and they would end up fight among themselves to see who would keep the deposit and who would claim to have done well for keeping their deposits. Winning was not in their minds other than participating in a general election for the sake of participation. Losing was a certainty and they kept going at losing by indulging in multi corner fights.

The fear of the same thing happening seems to be over after the second meeting of the opposition camp. They have more or less carved out the electoral map and decided who would contest in which GRC and single wards. Other than a three, 1 single ward and two GRCs, the rest of the field have been settled. Even then, the likelihood of an amicable solution is quite likely as can be seen by SPP and DPP closing rank to take Bishan Toa Payoh together. SingFirst and Reform Party may adopt the same formula to field a combined team in Ang Mo Kio. Such an option would see the two parties putting up their strongest candidates for the contest instead of the nothing to lose suicide squad in the past.

Yes, the opposition parties would be fielding their best candidates in this GE without over stretching themselves and putting up weak candidates for the sake of standing for an election. Without going for broke or trying to prove how many candidates they could field like the in past, they are saving their best ammunition for a real crack at the seats available. Every party will be choosing their candidates very carefully to make every man counts.

One positive outcome is that Ang Mo Kio will have a real contest if the Reform Party and SingFirst were to join forces and put up their best candidates for the job. This time Hsien Loong is not going to have it easy as before when only the unknowns were put up more like sacrificial lamb. In this GE, the sacrificial lambs or suicide squads, the no hoppers or nothing to lose candidates, would likely come from the PAP in WP held wards.

Every opposition party would put up their best for this election as they consolidated their strength to avoid 3 corner fights. This has turned out to be a good thing, with the opposition parties finally wised up to the challenge. They would still be a handful of wild cards who would think they can win in a 3 corner fights in single wards. What is their real motivation is anyone’s guesses but they will be seen as the spoilers to the party. Thankfully this will not be the norm and the main contest to be in Parliament will be as serious as it can be.

Let’s hope there will not be any nasty surprises during Nomination Day and no kelongs. It would be very painful to see parties given a GRC to contest but put up a dud team to compete, as good as giving a walkover to the ruling party.