10/02/2011

The elusive Singaporean Dream

Education is the tool to a better life, a leveller for everyone, regardless of his station in life, to move up the social ladder. It is true. Many from very challenging families have made it to become ministers and millionaires.

But that was history. The students will read in it in their history books of who and who from such a poor family and now so successful. A good education, particularly a university graduate, is like a life made. A graduate is expected to feed a family well, own a decent house, and a decent car. Actually the polytechnic graduates did far better than the university graduates in the industries.

The new story, graduates are driving taxis, graduates cannot find employment, graduates ended up working as temporary employees, or simply jobless graduates. They are also many stories of depressed graduates who are no longer the sought after son or daughter in laws, the prize catch.

A university or polytechnic degree is not the same anymore. Not only that the end result is dissimilar, the cost is also spectacular. To many graduates, or their parents, it is diminishing returns or actually a loss making enterprise. The cost of raising a children and putting him/her through university is so prohibitive and the returns so marginal. Some may question if it is worth the while or is there something wrong with the education formula?

A university or poly graduate is not a passport to a good life, or not guaranteed like in the past. The dream is getting more elusive. So what if you are a graduate? It is not the same anymore. You need to be an exceptional graduate, as 30% of each cohort is now a graduate.

10/01/2011

Give me your money or else…

While many debt ridden countries are queuing up in Beijing for the dough, some corners of America are screaming that the Chinese economy is going to bust like the Japanese and the Americans. Would an economy that is going to collapse have the money to offer to the beggars in the queue?

For decades, the western countries, including Europe and the US, have been living in great and bountiful times. They were dining and wining in the best restaurants with the best steaks they could buy, on borrowed money and borrowed time. On the other side of the globe, the Chinese farmers and factory workers were working their guts out just to put food on the table and a roof over their heads. Anything extra, any leftovers, will be put into the kitty.

The Chinese were not rich, but they did not over spend. They saved every cent possible for the rainy day. The West was a different story. There was no rainy day. The rain will never come, only good times. They forgot that their good times are borrowed times on borrowed money. There will be no more colonies to feed their extravagant life styles.

The day of reckoning is here. Those who were prudent, thrifty and spent within their means would have lesser to worry than those who flaunted their wealth and consumed more than they could afford to. And while their sprawling straw houses are burning, they are wishing that the little mud houses will go down as well.

Of course some knew their houses are burning. They are being burnt and needed help. Some still don’t think so and wishing and willing others will be burnt down so that they can clap and say, I told you so.

Some will put the blame on the Chinese peasants for saving too much and spending too little. The financial crisis is the fault of the Chinese. And when the Americans went to the Chinese with hands stretching, the Chinese obliged to help stabilise the world financial crisis and saved the day for the Americans. The Europeans are following the Americans to Beijing, with hands outstretched. Some corners were slyly suggesting that the Chinese were doing it not for altruistic reasons. Some, like the great thinkers and journalists here will be asking the Chinese of their intent, as if the Chinese were harbouring some unspeakable sinister motive for giving out their money.

No, they would not question the altruism of the Western empires, of the Americans, when they handed out aids to the developing countries. No strings attached. And when they invaded countries and did regime changes, they were done with good motives, all altruistic.

The Chinese, uncouth, loud and rude, and a big bully, should better understand that whatever they do, the Western world will never see them in any good light. Not even from the elite here who are supposedly to know them better because of proximity and some similarity in culture and roots.

The bottom line is that the Singaporean Chinese would even despise the Chinese and would not trust anything they do. So it is only natural that the West will never trust or like the uncouth and uncivilised Chinese. My recommendation is that if they do, they will be damned, if they don’t, they too will be damned. It is best to keep their money at home to help themselves. Let the uncouth peasants eat better and live better. No need to pretend to be nice, to hand out their money to the countries in financial trouble.

With the rich Europeans in their luxurious limousines at the doorsteps of the poor farmers and factory workers asking for a little donation, from their kitties hidden under their wooden beds, should the Chinese shoo them away?

9/30/2011

Must Chinese Sporeans support China’s rise?

This is the heading of an article by William Choong, a senior writer of ST and published in today’s ST. The gist of his article is that he got screwed by other Chinese for questioning the rise of China and China’s assertiveness as an emerging power. Some even questioned his roots, whether he is a Chinese or perhaps an ang moh or something else.

He claimed that as a journalist, and a Singaporean, it would be foolish to let his race shaped his assessment of global trends. He even quoted LKY’s defence of American presence in the region to balance the rise of China’s military power.

I agree that one should not allow one’s racial origin to colour one’s objectivity. And one should be thinking of one’s national interest and take a position on that ground. But it is altogether a silly thing to take a position without knowing why, without knowing that one is not being objective but trying to impress others as being objective.

The very title of his article is biased and not objective. It is not a matter of supporting China’s rise but a matter of supporting right against wrong, against injustice and inequality. Is China’s rise leading to China bullying the weaker nations, committing aggression and invasion against weak nations, or is China’s rise just a natural and neutral phenomenon of the growing economic and military prowess of a nation? What is wrong if a nation, any nation, becomes strong and powerful? Even with China’s new stature, little silly Asean nations have been arresting Chinese fishermen and threatening to go to war with China. What would it be if China is still a weakling nation? Would that be better?

Likewise, the silly statement that we need the US to balance the rise of China is as good as wisdom from a joker. Why is it that no one ever asked for a stronger country to balance the military might of the US all these years? Why isn’t China’s rise seen as a balance against the US presence and world domination? I am sure the Arab and Muslim world would beg for a stronger country, be it China or anyone else, to stop the oppressive and hegemonic American presence in the Middle East.

Or is it because the American world domination for too long has got stuck in his head, that this is the only normal? Any new power challenging this normal is unacceptable?

I half agree with LKY’s statement that it is Singapore’s national interest that there should be a balance of power in the Pacific. Now what kind of balance of power is he talking about? A mighty America unchallenged and can do what it wants against any nation, conducting espionage and military war games at other nation’s front yard, conducting aerial spying missions against weaker nations at will? Conducting regime change? Or a more balance of power between the Americans and the Chinese when both side would not dare to push the other around at will, like I can slam you and you cannot slam me back?

It is not an issue of supporting or not supporting China’s rise just because one is a Chinese. It is silly to just question and try to discredit China like the West because the West is doing it and saying the same thing. What the West is saying and doing is for their own interests.

Whatever, a Chinese is a bloody Chinese by any name, a Singaporean or an American Chinese, or if you call yourself Ah Choong or William. When China was a beggar of nations, any Chinese will be known as a useless Chink wherever he went, and be spitted upon, even physically abused, not only by the Westerners, but also by the colonized Asians. Pai Hua was common in Southeast Asia. Today, it is not so easy anymore, because there is a strong China. It would be nice if William Choong could be able to ask his grandpa or great grandpa what it was like to be a Chinese when China was the sick man of Asia.

Today, any bloody Chinese of whatever nationality takes it as a natural right that he is somehow seen as nearly equal, and treated slightly better by the Westerners, for granted. Just imagine how he will be treated if China is still the sick man of Asia? Will the Westerners take a bloody Singaporean Chinese with a name like William Choong seriously? Or will they be laughing their guts out at the thought of him and his great articles in questioning China’s intention as a new military power behind his inscrutable face?

Mind you, for many decades, the Chinese all looked alike to the Westerners, no personality, no character, no talent, poor, good only to be cooks and laundry men and inscrutable, with little slit eyes. Yes, they all looked alike, can't distinguish one from another. Sounds familiar?

The rise of China and its progress in all fields have made the Westerners to look at Chinese as a people, from a new angle. William Choong should thank the bloody Commie Chinese for the added respect and standing he is getting from the Westerners and the former colonized people of the world. The Indonesians and Malaysians would not be so ready to pai hua. The Aussies would not bang into him in the streets that often.

There is no need to support the rise of China just because you are Chinese. But you get some additional intangible benefits from it indirectly. Maybe I am wrong. The Westerners will respect me more and see me up if China is still a weak pariah state with its people living in poverty, without ideas and talents. Or maybe I should question China like the West and they will respect me more for seeing the world in their coloured lens, like a Westerner?

Forgetting the asshole

Today I try, or pretend, to be an elite and think or reason like an elite. This is an important exercise as the elite are the thinkers, agenda setters and decision makers, and will decide the type of life we will lead. And presumably the elite are smart asses and will not think silly or act silly, or short change the people.

A plate of chicken rice is now $10 in some places. And if the price is not controlled or brought down, it will keep spiraling as every seller will think that this is the new normal. All they need to do is to shout that the price is affordable and soon the people will believe so. So the asshole who started the $10 chicken rice is going to reap all the profits he desired and get away with it. Is there a problem with rising prices of chicken rice?

An elite may suggest, since the price is $10 or 3 times the normal price, it will be cheaper and reasonable to divide it up and eat it in three meals. That will make the chicken rice cheaper won’t it?

Another may suggest, reduce the quantity into half and sell it at $5. Or for small eaters, reduce the quantity to a third and sell it at $3. See, the price of chicken rice is now affordable, like before.

There could be more brilliant and cleverer suggestions from the elite thinkers. And they will keep on doing it, cracking their brilliant minds to solve the high chicken price problem.

And none will want to ask, or to know, how the chicken price got to become $10 in the first place, and whether it is justifiable. They have totally forgotten about the asshole that started it. They have accepted the new normal, that a plate of chicken rice should be $10.

Where is Khaw Boon Wan? Has he resolved the high HDB price problem?

Designing a bank run!

The most feared situation in any financial system is a run on the banks. Banks are exceptionally sensitive and careful in taking in big deposits for fear of such an incident. Big money is good, everyone wants to have a bite of the cherry. But knowing banks, and the danger of big money, they will take all precautions to spread the risk. They will not put themselves in such a precarious situation to facilitate a run on the bank. No banks, however big or rock solid, can withstand a run, as they generally lend out more than they have. There is always not enough cash to feed a run.

The govt and banking authority will not allow such a situation to develop. Allowing it is criminal negligence, as it will lead to the collapse of a country’s financial system and the country itself.

The beauty of it all is that while the govt and banking authority are guarding the front door with triple layers of barb wires, they have left the back door wide open without knowing it, and thinking that all is safe.

Greed is good, but greed is also dangerous. The world is flooded with liquidity. And liquidity can flow anywhere anytime with the high speed and high tech communication and information system. Big funds, private and sovereign funds, are caretakers of big money which they can wield and move around with the flick of a few fingers.

When the funds flow in concert, it is worst than a tsunami. When the cash flows in, everyone opens his arms widely to welcome them. The danger of the cash going out at double quick time can wipe out everything along the way.

Big funds, high speed machines, deregulations, allow money to move in and out of a stock market at will. Many stock markets have experienced the destructiveness of funds moving in and out, sometimes for a few hours or a few days. The full impact of the funds clearing their holdings in concert and getting out of a stock market is as good as a run on the banks. All they need to do is a big sell down.

Not possible? The way the stockmarkets are gearing themselves for the big funds to play havoc to their stocks is extremely idiotic. They have done everything possible to allow it to happen. No need to ask me how. It is only waiting to happen. Even the temporary trading halt on limit down can only be for a moment. When the dam is broken, the trading halt cannot save the destruction. It will be too little too late.

There is no need to run on the banks. Just run on the stockmarket is equally destructive and damaging. The big funds with their big cash hoards and high speed machine are ready to do what they are capable of. It is only a matter of when. Are there enough safeguards to prevent it from happening, or allowing it to happen up to a certain level, that is just as serious in consequences?

Below is a REUTER article dated 29 Aug 2011

Beat high-frequency trading machines by not playing their game
The days of you trying to make a buck actively trading in the stock market are over.

Individuals don’t stand a chance anymore because they are largely competing against rational machines often guided by herd-like irrational forces. The robots can rule in the blink of an eye….

I knew it was over for human traders when I heard that high-frequency trading firms were hooking up their data lines directly to exchange computers to gain an extra hundredth of a second in execution time.
High-speed programs are designed to move millions of shares in a fraction of a second to take advantage of small movements in securities prices….

There’s no way to beat the machines, unless of course, you have a faster machine, better programs or the ability to predict the future. Your odds are better in Vegas, which never had great odds for a palooka pulling a one-armed bandit….

Some 60 percent of the volume of the New York Stock Exchange is attributed to high-speed trading, maybe more.

Although many market observers blamed machine traders for a flash crash last year, regulators have done little to slow down these speed demons....

That’s why will see even more flash crashes and huge price swings called “mini-flash crashes.”…

Don’t even try to time the purchase of your stocks, because Washington will do nothing to protect you against huge market swings.

Wall Street is spreading plenty of money around in lobbying efforts to make sure that their trading desks don’t get regulated in any meaningful way. Sated with financial services industry contributions, House Republicans have already spent most of the year trying to kill Dodd-Frank financial reforms, so high-speed trading isn’t even near the top of their agenda.

So my advice couldn’t be more succinct. The best way to beat the machines is pretty simple: Don’t even play them. Game over.