Terrorist Attacks!

This is almost an unstoppable threat that many countries are facing. And we have to face the grief with the tragic death of Lo Hwei Yen in Mumbai. She was there, wrong place and wrong time. Nothing more, nothing less. Terrorist threats can be any where, can be at home if we are not careful. It was a sad and unnecessary loss of a young bubbling girl, one of us. It is natural that all of us feel the pain and sorrow, from the President, PM, SM, DPM and everyone in the street, her loved ones, her relations and those who do not know her. Not often that we have to feel this way as a people. Our security forces can do all they could, but don't expect them to provide a net that can keep the terrorists out. They will slip in if they want to. Just don't give them a reason. Don't stir the hornets' nest. 10 gun totting terrorists in Orchard Road or Shenton way will kill more than the 200 in Mumbai for sure. Let's keep vigilant and pray that it shall not happen here. And pay some remorse to those young men who died in NS in the call of duty to keep this place a safer place. They were not in the wrong place and the wrong time. They were there specifically to serve the country. And many have died. And the tragedies of their premature deaths were never less than dying in Mumbai. Their parents lost their sons, some, only sons, for the country. We need a little outpouring of grief the next time another young man dies in the course of duty for the country.

Go home early to make babies

Last week I read that Japan is encouraging its young to go home early to make more babies. The same justification as in many countries, an older and dying population needs renewal. You need two young to support an old. So the world is all clamouring for more babies with more monetary incentives. Is this a good thing? The equation, if fully practised, will lead to a population explosion. And this mother earth is already gasping for breath to keep up with sustaining a 6b population. They are expecting it to go to 8b in the near future. There are physical stress, resource stress, climatic stress and political stress facing civilisation and mother earth. Instead of a trimming exercise which nature does every now and then to shed some weight, we are trying to put on more. The ingenuity of humankind will find its way to survive with ever growing population, or it shall perish. When will human kind admit that mother earth can just support that much lives and it is time to stop adding on? Why the rambling, let's go for the 6m or 10m. Things will go work out naturally.

Gambling with your only asset

Gambling or trading with your home or gambling with your only asset or flat, private or HDB. Not many are house owners. Does this statement tickle anyone? Many of us just have a flat that we called home. This is all we got, the most expensive asset. Shall we be trading this every now and then? At the way we buy and sell our flats, and the way prices fluctuate up and down, we could be buying and selling the same flat over and over again. And if we are lucky, we may end up with some extra cash, or lose some in most cases as the transaction cost is not low. So, shall heartlanders be gambling with their only asset? Or is it a good idea for this asset to keep running up in value? Should be good isn't it, that a flat one bought 20 or 30 years ago is not worth 10 or 20 times its value. Time to cash out and downgrade, and make a tidy sum. The question is whether this process is worth it, downgrading for a little more pocket money. Often the downgrading is not meaningful as the price difference between a 5rm and 4rm or 4rm and 3rm is so small after subtracting transaction cost and the normal appreciation of the value of money invested. The small gain is an illusion. To be meaningful, the downgrade must be fierce, 5rm to 3rm or rental flat, or private to a smaller HDB flat. The other fallacy to this ever increasing price paradox is that property prices should go up in leaps and bounds over the years. Using the past statistics, a 5 rm flat that was priced at $27,500 in the early 70s is not priced at $500K, nearly 20 times in monetary gain. If this is to hold true into the future, a 4rm flat selling at $300k today must fetch $6m into 30 years time. How much will an average Singaporean's income be for him to be able to afford this palace in the sky? Would it be better if this only asset be allowed to appreciate in a slower pace over time without it becoming a betting instrument, swinging wildly, and owners sometimes happy, sometimes angry. For the young, always angry because it is like chasing a fleeting dream. Is it likely that our average young executive or a supervisor will be getting a monthly salary of $30k or $50k? Possible, and our currency will be no different from the infamous banana money. I think many countries are in such a state at the moment. We can be one too.

Act now before the next meltdown

This is the heading of an article by Paul Krugman in the New York Times and reprinted in the ST today. His primary concern is the failure to look at the serious problem when all the early signs were there which led to this financial meltdown. America pulled throw several near disasters, at the brink of collapses, but instead of understanding how they got so close to failures, gave themselves all the encouraging and triumphant pats on their backs, and pronounced how clever they were to avoid the falls. The lessons to be learn is to sit back and take a quick look at our own situation and examine if we are sliding towards the edge. And I think we are. The psyche and culture of greed and instant wealth will burst our bottoms before we know it or see it coming. We are in a state of delusion and intoxicated in our past successes. We have triumphed over all obstacles and we think we can continue to bullshit our way through. The thing is that if we are hit by a version of the American financial tsunami, I don't think we can absorb the blow. We would have to sell everything, including father and mother, to get back on our feet. Where are the fault lines? The stock market is one. You cannot build a market that is dependent solely of foreign funds and support to survive. Trying to be a mountain when we are actually an anthill is not only being ambitious, but maniacal. For the moment our market still looks like it is a big market with huge volume of trades executed daily. In reality it is like a hologram. Fictitious trading, or left hand to right hand, is the reason for the high volume. Then there are the rules and mechanisms that do not provide a level playing field for all players have distorted the meaning and viability of the stock market. It is waiting to collapse. Wait till the funds pull out. We will be left with a gaping hole to fill. The high property prices, particularly in the private sector, which also affect the prices of public housing. When the citizens have to pay a life time ransom for a place to stay is perceived as good and healthy, it tells a lot about the faulty mindsets of supposedly brilliant people. The high cost of properties is unsustainable in the long run as it will require a high income to support the prices. In the case of private properties, the few local super rich have bought whatever they could and are waiting for some suckers to offload from them at a profit. But the locals from public housing would barely be able to do it, except for a very few. So open the flood gate for foreign suckers to come in. And that is good. Sell our limited land to foreigners with the dole. Keep building more and more and at ever higher prices. The music will stop one day. The corollary to this madness is the rentals of shops, houses and factories. Just keep driving them up and the landlords will laugh all the way to the bank. One Tay Boon Yong wrote to the ST this morning complaining that his landlord, the HDB, has just informed him that his rental will go up by 20% in January 09. I presume someone will say this is inevitable, imported inflation, or HDB is now a private organisation and must answer to its shareholders, or profit is good. I am so tempted to use the 4 letter word here. Quick profit, by sheer market forces of supply and demand, is the easiest way to make money. The next easiest is monopoly or by edict. In the tiny world of ours, it is so easy to corner the market and put undue pressure to create the forces that favour high prices of everything. Even public transportation will be a victim of such a mentality. Hospitals, education, and anything, can be manipulated by quoting market mechanism or forces as an excuse to raise cost and price. If we keep going down this road unchecked, a few silly buggers who think that they are smart enough and fortune will smile on them forever, will think this is the best way to go. But the majority, which will also count these silly smart asses, will not be able to cope in the long haul. Many will have to struggle all the way while the few smart asses will have their turn to cry when fortune slams the door in their faces. The ancient wisdoms of thrift, lower cost, steady and sustainable growth in small increments are not called wisdoms for nothing.

Myth 197 - No freedom of expression

Recently there seems to be a lot of complaints that Singapore is very uptight and lack of freedom of expression. People even got worried about what kind of T shirts they are wearing. Where is the sense of humour? Huh, what's humour? I think it is all a mis representation. I have all the freedom of expression that I need here, writing my forum/blog. I can even call Bush an idiot. No one has ever said that I can't write such stuff. We are very free actually, and very mature as a people.