India Pakistan War - Downing of Rafales...How it happened, step by step

 The western world is still shock by the infamous downing of 3 Rafales jets by China's J10 Cs in the India Pakistan War. The downing of a SU 30 and a MiG 29 did not arouse much interest mainly because the Rafales have been touted as the best jet fighter in Europe, next only to the F22s. The F35s did not come close. On the other hand, the J10 C was not the best in China. China has J15, J16, J18, J20, J35 and now J36 and J50. The latter two are 6th generation air superiority aircraft.

It is very shocking that an average J10 C in China's stable could down 3 of Europe/France's top jet fighters without suffering any casualty. The encounter was 5-0 in favour of Pakistan. Another Rafale was knocked down a few days later, making it 6-0.

Many analysts and experts have been writing and reporting about this amazing event. Let me try to plot how the event unfolded in a simplified manner and the sequences from the facts available. Never mind if India refused to admit the downing of the Rafales or how many. France and the US have officially reported that the Rafales were shot down. Factual truth.

On 7 May, India, with its fleet of Rafales, thought it had air superiority and scrambled 80 or so aircraft on its side of the border, a show of force, awaiting the Pakistanis and daring the Pakistanis to cross over for a fight. The Pakistanis also scrambled about 50 of their own fighters on their side of the border. Both parties were separated by at least 100km of air space, looking at each other from a distance. The ground radars of both sides could see the aircraft in the air. Maybe the Indians could see a few lesser Pakistani jets as the J10 Cs also have certain level of stealth and their radar blips on the Indian screens might not be too obvious.

The battle zone was set, with the jets of both sides on combat air patrol and watching, ready to jump at each other. Apparently, the Indians fired some missiles into Pakistan from the safety of distance, inside Indian territory. The Pakistanis fleet were ordered not to fire unless the Indian side attacked first. The firing of missiles into Pakistan territory would be enough reason for the Pakistanis to shoot back. And they did, from more than 100km or 200km away. It is not easy to determine if the Indian fighters have fired their weapons. The Pakistanis probably got feedback from satellite technology.

The Indian pilots could not see the PL15s coming their way on their radars. It is not easy to get a radar response from tiny air to air missiles approaching head on using aircraft radar. Very likely they did not see anything from their cockpit radars. The J10 Cs were reported to have switched off their on board radars to avoid detection, and maintained maintained comm silence. Only the more powerful ground radars, with their longer range, could see them in the sky.

So, the Indian jets were patrolling in formation for battle. The Pakistanis revealed a short communication clip between the Indian pilots trying to locate their own positions vis a vis each other. The Pakistanis were listening to the Indian pilots conversation. The Indian pilots were patrolling without knowing that the battle had started. Their conversation was suddenly terminated with one Indian pilot saying there was an air explosion, meaning he was hit. This suggested that the Indian pilots did not see, did not know and not aware that the PL15s were approaching them. They had no time to react, to evade. They were just like sitting ducks in the air, waiting to be hit. And they were hit and down they went. 5 aircraft were shot without the Indians knowing or aware of the attack. No need to sweat the small stuff, no need to take evasive action, no need to pull high G, no need to fear of being hit. Ignorance was bliss.

On the Pakistanis side, they claimed that they could take down a few more but were ordered not to fire, not to inflict too many casualties on the Indian side. It was a case of the Indians being blindsided, their radars unable to lit up the incoming PL15 missiles and thinking they were in a safe distance inside India, too far from being hit.

There was an asymmetry of capabilities in radar and missile range, favouring the Pakistanis. The Pakistanis could see the whole combat zone, all the Indian aircraft with ground radars. The Indians could see too, but not seeing all the Pakistani aircraft, and definitely could not see the PL15s being fired at them from a great distance.

The Pakistani side had overall superiority in radar performance and a longer range air to air missiles that the Indians overlooked. It ended up with the Pakistanis able to fire first.  The Indians failed to appreciate the longer kill range of the PL15s.

The Indians were anticipating close combat, for dog fights that did not materialise. It was a mismatch of expectation, doctrine and concept of modern air warfare. The Pakistanis could take them down from far away, beyond visual range, beyond radar range.