Dollar’s Resurgence Is a Headache for the Rest of the World
Surging Treasury yields help send the U.S. currency to its best quarter in a year
The
dollar has bounced back with a vengeance, threatening global central
bankers’ tricky task of bringing down inflation while protecting fragile
economic growth.
The greenback on Monday reached its highest
level of the year, bringing its gain since mid-July to 6.6%. The WSJ
Dollar Index last week closed out its best quarter since last fall, when
it was in the midst of a once-in-a-generation run-up. Some
emerging-market currencies have been hit especially hard, with the
dollar rising 11% against the Chilean peso and almost 8% against the
Hungarian forint.
The dollar’s strength has been driven by
surging Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a new
16-year high Monday of 4.682%. Investors have grown more convinced of
the U.S. economy’s resilience—and that the Federal Reserve is likely to
keep borrowing costs higher for longer than it would do in a typical
business cycle.
Any big currency move produces both winners and
losers. In the U.S., a strong dollar is politically popular and largely
good for consumers because it holds down inflation by keeping import
prices in check, and makes trips abroad cheaper.
For the rest of
the world, however, the return of the strong dollar is a largely
unwelcome development. In many countries, interest rates are at their
highest in years or decades, already increasing the risk of financial
stress. The combination of those higher rates, a stronger U.S. currency
and elevated oil prices spells lower growth across the world and more
financial vulnerability.
U.S. companies with big overseas
businesses like Apple are also getting hit as the value of their
overseas revenue falls in terms of the U.S. currency and their goods
become more expensive for foreigners.
“The strong dollar is
overstaying its welcome. It’s starting to become a problem again,” said
Chris Turner, head of foreign-exchange strategy at ING.
The
greenback is still by far the most widely used currency for global trade
and finance, which means its fluctuations ripple far outside of the
U.S. Commodities, like oil or wheat, are usually priced in dollars. And
governments, companies and households around the world have borrowed
trillions of dollars in the U.S. currency. When the dollar’s value
rises, it gets more expensive for others to buy imports or repay their
debts.
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