6/19/2015

China versus India, everything wrong in China but everything right in India

I was reading this article, ‘A rising India poses a threat to China – but not just yet’ in the Today paper on 18 Jun by YooLim Lee and William Mellor. The main point in the article is that everything in China is wrong, the Chinese are doing everything wrong, and are faced with mountains of problems. In India, everything is right and everything is going for India, with a pro business Modi calling all the shots and India would be overtaking China in a matter of time. And they have a lot of evidence to prove their points, no guessing stuff.

Under ‘China’s headwinds’, China’s economy has slumped to 7% growth rate,  their strategies are misfiring, one child policy leading to lack of cheap labour, the economy depending on cheap and low priced exports, govt spending on infrastructure gone to waste through corruption or building ghost cities. China is desperately trying to transform its unbalanced economy but will be very bumpy and create many losers. The perpetual hope that China will prop up its economy is misplaced. There are big concerns on China’s huge debt and deficit. In other words China is doom.

In India, the economy is expanding and its growth rate ‘will be 7.5%’ after India revised the way it calculated its growth and changing a 4.7% growth into a 6.9% growth. And there is the able and pro business Modi opening up investment of railways to foreigners for the first time though China has opened the whole country since 1978. And Modi also ‘raised foreign ownership limit in the defence and insurance industries to 49%  from 26%...scrapped diesel subsidies and pledged to unclog transportation and build cities.’  Impressive.  Modi is also as tough as Xi in tackling corruption by supporting a law for prison terms up to 10 years.  I think China either executes corrupt officials or imprisoned them for life. And Xi has arrested more than 100,000 corrupt officials. Modi would soon be starting to arrest some corrupt officials too.

While all the evidence is pointing to a crumbling China losing its way and messing up its economy and India is doing all the right things to catch up, the article also pointed out a few funny statistics. China’s economy is US$10 trillion compares to India’s US$2 trillion. China has been growing at average 9.8% since 1978. And even if India were to grow at 8% and China slowed to 7%, ‘China will still create another three Indias before the decade is over.’

The duo forgot to add that Xi has another 8 years to run his China while Modi may be voted out in 3 years time. They concluded that despite all the wrongs in China and all the rights in India, ‘At the end of the day, the China India rivalry is no contest on most fronts. In economic clout, military might, geopolitical influence, literacy, health, life expectancy and even sporting prowesss, it will be an unequal competition for years to come.’

While they quoted a Morgan Stanley analyst, Ruchir Sharma saying China may not even be paying attention to what is happening in India and the so called challenge, as ‘China’s strategic game is much bigger’, the two still concluded that ‘India’s rise presents one challenge China’s Communist Politburo may find impossible to match…India’s very existence is an example to third countries that they can be democracies and grow. ‘  The 3rd World countries will thus be blessed to have the India and China growth and development models to choose from.  One has succeeded but full of problems and another full of aspirations and full of hopes and full of promises and aspiring to be successful. Shall I add full of ‘no problems’?

Chinese goods are chopped, ‘Made in China’. Modi is trying to sell ‘Make in India’ goods.  See the difference?

10 comments:

Virgo 49 said...

Growth at 7 % better than some some who has to downgrade from 2.8 to 2.7.

Maybe 0 growth as these soothsayers all aga aga.

India to overtake China??

You must be joking!!

See one China man lay one void deck with ceramics tiles alone in two days and ten Indians laying one floor of four units open net cable in one week.

One indian worked, three chatting, rest went to union meeting or sembawang clinic to see KBW or rogo the clinic's nurse.

Anonymous said...

Cannot say like this. You see DBS now so many foreigners and all so hardworking and DBS made plenty money. Last time so many Singaporeans, DBS no make so much money.

Virgo49 said...

Made monies by sucking interest from loans from the poor sinkies who had choice or no choice for their dwellings

Worse than Shylock

China - India Bo Tak Chay Analysis said...

Sometimes they say follow behind the rich as you are likely often right. Vote with the billions where the future is. Where did billionaire investor Jim Roger decide to go tour around the entire country spending one year there in the 2000s? And some more just on a motorbike? China! Which 2nd language is he getting his Ang Mo young daughters to be fluent in? Mandarin! China including all countries have their problems. But the problems in India is that originally it was "clobbered" together by the British. There was never an Emperor Qin to unite it under a single language. Even if an Indian national mastered 5 languages including English, Tamil, Hindi etc, he is still not understood by half of the population in whatever 5 languages he chooses to speak. And that is just the starting premise. The Chinese has a predominant Han race comprising more than 90% of their population. The Northern fair skin Indians are as similar to the southern dark skin Indians as chickens to ducks. The deeply entrenched and embedded caste system, bias against women, opposite culture to many other parts of the world such as shaking their heads when they mean "yes" are all by themselves insurmountable challenges to galvanise the entire country to mount a serious concerted, cohesive challenge to the Chinese. A 3rd world cuntry albeit an emerging one needs huge massive foreign investments and technology transfers. India just does not offer the mesmerising, magnetic, attractive, alluring, captivating culture, food, majestic architectures and artifacts, historical monuments such as the Terracotta Warriors etc etc that China has to offer. And the quality of the labour that MNCs look for. Otherwise why is Apple's iPhone and iPad manufacturing based in China? In many aspects China wins handsdown.

A common custom union, monetary union, political union, predominant racial union, language union is what the European Continent has been working on for the past millenniums without success including the recent decades EEC, EU, Euro and EuroZone projects. Without an equal or superior language and other framework to work with, a cuntry is already a loser at the starting block. An exception is the United States. Predominantly they have 4 of the 5 critical unions in language, politics, economics and common custom. What they don't have in race homogeneity they more than made up with creaming off the best from the entire globe in various aspects. Some of the key scientists in the US who helped built the atomic bombs during WWII migrated from Germany, their arch rival in WWII.

At the most, India will be a great power in its neighbourhood but unlikely a continental power to challenge China, not mentioning the US, at least in this foreseeable 21st century. It does best in its own interests to collaborate with China in strategic areas, just like what President Xi and PM Modi did in recent months visiting each other and cementing various ties and substantial mutual economic deals and partnership. To talk about India catching up with China in this 21st century especially the first half is however, a bit too over stretched.

patriot said...

What's the Issue?

May both China and India
prosper and make their people
healthy and happy.
As the Worlds Most Populous
Nations, their prosperity and happiness
will benefit the Rest tremendously.

patriot

Anonymous said...

Not to worry, Goh Chok Tong and Singapore will help India to be a super power.
And India will help Singapore to be a smart nation.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

To the world's political sheeple: The "India--good, China--bad" idea is because the fuckers making the call like democracy and civil society. India has democracy (the world's larges) and civil society based on English Common Law...and China doesn't.

Also India has "friends" whilst China has "partners". China's "partners" are happy to take Chinese money, but also will criticise China---often worngly and harshly---in the domestic press and media of these "partner" cuntrees.

Which cuntree is better or worse is a time wasting pursuit. No one knows for sure, and billions of other people on the planet don't care, because it is unimportant.

Fact is ChIndia is so enmeshed into the global productive engine it is hard to imagine a world without China or India.

1 in 3 people in the world are either China or Indian national. And they are COMPETITIVE and don't always "play fair" (questions are, why should they, and what exactly is "fair"?) especially if the game is zero sum.

Anonymous said...

india is a joke

how many chinese wish to live in INDIA for democracy?
how many westerner wish to live in INDIA for democracy?

westerner does not even know how many political party exist in india.

over 200 people had died due to heatwave
but western media dont call such situation as" MAN made disaster."
western media did not blame the india govt for such disaster.

western media turned a blind eye to INDIA activity in african continent
they only attacked CHINA.

why?

china is threat to western hegemony

how about INDIA ?

west dont have much confidence over INDIA

india rise is a fabrication. -

support the western propaganda that democracy is superior than one party system.

Anonymous said...

This is the western world strategy of pitting Asians against Asians. Have Japan Philippines etc provoke China and hoping to start a war in Asia, and creating unanimity between India and China.
What the West most feared is a strong and united Asia. So Asian countries should wake up to this threat and work together for their greater good.

b said...

India IT industry is slowing taken over by africans and south americans. I think their economy will crash soon. Without IT, what can they do?