Top 20 Predictions in 2022 Part 1 – 3

MIT’s economic historian Charles Kindleberger developed the well-known Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST) where a prevailing hegemon maintains stability in the world order in an otherwise anarchic international system.

He attributed the inter-war years 1929 – 1939 as the period where there was an international power vacuum in terms of the lack of a leading hegemon fulfilling the role of a global policeman, inevitably resulting in a treacherous period of untenable international instability.

The dismaying conclusion by many learned political scientists and others alike is that a hegemonic war eventually breaks out under such scenario to determine the next hegemon, be it the original hegemon or the rising power. This script seems to emanate since the time of Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece between two powerful city states Athens and Sparta during 431 BC to 405 BC.

The KEY question is NOT:

Is it rational for the disequilibrium in the international system to be resolved via military conflicts?

The KEY question is:

Since the two atomic bombs dropped in 1945 over Hiroshima and Nagasaki, can the world afford for the disequilibrium in the international system to be resolved via military conflicts to determine the next hegemon to maintain a stable world order?

Would there be any hegemon left standing after another hegemonic war?

Is it rational (in conducting foreign policies) to go by the narrative of Thucydides’ Peloponnesian War or Thucydides Trap (TT) and Charles Kindleberger’s HST or Kindleberger’s Trap (KT)?

Would a hegemonic war resolve anything (in the end)?

As chess pieces are being moved (globally) step by step, piece by piece, is the world inching closer towards the unthinkable by accident or otherwise?

When events get out of control, is it very real that the unthinkable taking place has a non-zero probability?

What makes political leadership assumes military conflicts rather than cooperation &/ or peaceful coexistence would restore disequilibrium in the world order?

IRRATIONAL GROUPTHINK?


Leo 81

Covid19 - What a vaccine is not

 The experts on what a vaccine is or is not are either not telling the truth or those that were telling the truth were silenced.

A vaccine is not a drug.

A vaccine does not fight the virus.

A vaccine does not keep the antibodies in the body high all the time.

A vaccine literally does not protect a person from being infected or developing serious illnesses.

What is a vaccine?

A vaccine is actually the virus, dead virus, that is injected into a body to elicit a reaction from the body against the virus. The body has a better chance to fight a dead and ineffective virus during vaccination, and thus be trained to produce the respective antibodies to do the job when attacked by the life virus.

Once the body has learnt to recognise the virus and able to produce the antibodies to fight it, the body will have ability in the memory, and be trained to fight a similar virus when it enters the body, faster and more effective. This is the whole purpose of vaccination, to prepare the body to fight the virus.

When the virus has been removed from an infected body, entered during vaccination or an infection, the body will stop producing antibodies. The function of producing antibodies would stand down and very little traces of antibodies would be left in the body. But this does not mean that the body has become less effective or unable to fight the virus if it enters the body again. This lower antibody count is now being used to justify injecting more pseudo vaccines to raise antibody level. It is a lie. The higher antibody count immediately after vaccination is a normal reaction as the body is producing the antibodies to fight the virus present.

When the virus reenters the body, the body will then be all ready and prepared to produce the necessary antibodies to fight the virus. The body would immediately pump up the antibody level to counter the virus. 

It is the body's ability to produce the antibodies that is protecting the person from being infected. Not the vaccine.

Below is a statement from the Israeli PM. Is he stupid, a liar, or paid to make such a statement? Anyone that got a booster jab, be it second, third, fourth or more, would see his antibodies shot up many times from his pre booster stage. This is normal, expected.  What is the big deal? 

And, after a few months, if he is not infected, his antibodies would drop significantly to where he was before the booster shot. And this is also normal.

In a Facebook post on Jan. 4, Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett said on Jan. 4 local studies have found that a fourth dose of the Covid-19 vaccine boosts antibodies five-fold.

PS. When are they going to stop this antibody level lie to make more money by forcing people to go for boosters to raise the antibody level?

Top 20 Predictions in 2022 Part 1 – 2

History as recent as the 20th century may have accorded us some tools to even conceptualise a theory based on irrationality in foreign policies. What have the countless wars waged in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and currently achieved?

What relationship if any exists between the minds of political leadership and the international political realm that ultimately had led to war after war, destruction after destruction, foreign policy irrationality after foreign policy irrationality with no clear victors or benefits for all.

What makes political leadership assumes military conflicts rather than cooperation &/ or peaceful coexistence would restore disequilibrium in the world order?

Yale University’s political scholar Irving L. Janis wrote:

Quote
“Groups can bring out the worst as well as the best in man. Nietzsche went so far as to say that madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups. A considerable amount of social science literature shows that in circumstances of extreme crisis, group contagion occasionally gives rise to collective panic, violent acts of scapegoating, and other forms of what could be called group madness. Much more frequent, however, are instances of mindless conformity and collective misjudgement of serious risks, which are collectively laughed off in a clubby atmosphere of relaxed conviviality.”

“What is groupthink?”

“I use the term “groupthink” as a quick and easy way to refer to a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a collective ingroup, when the members’ strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action. “Groupthink” is a term of the same order as the words in the newspeak vocabulary George Orwell presents in his dismaying 1984 – a vocabulary with terms such as “doublethink” and “crimethink.” By putting groupthink with those Orwellian words, I realise that groupthink takes on an invidious connotation. The invidiousness is intentional. Groupthink refers to a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgement that results from in-group pressures.”
Unquote

Leo 81

Academic Make-believe Inflation vs Real-Term Inflation

This inflation thing today is very bad for Singapore. The pressure-cooker is bound to explode very soon. Just watch.

There is always a huge difference between the academicians' look-good politically-motivated estimates of inflation and the real terms inflation.

The politically-motivated inflation rate of academicians has always been too conservative to the extent that the man (and woman) in the street will say they are talking through their nose. It never exceeds 4% per annum.

The real inflation is not measured by the make-believe inflation rate cleverly calculated and politically uttered by the brain-dead (PhD means Permanent Head Damage) academicians, especially those who are proudly wearing the title called "Professor".

The real inflation is experienced on the daily basis when you go to the coffeeshop and find out that your cup of coffee-black was $1 yesterday but $1.10 today. That is 10% inflation in real terms. Not 1.5%.

The real inflation is when you have been paying $2000 per month rental for your 4-room HDB flat last month but now have to pay $2400 per month for a 3-room HDB flat this month. That is 20% inflation in real terms. Not 3.8% in the watered-down calculations of the government.

Who gain from the inflation? The government, of course. Followed by the unscrupulous profiteering business organisations and property owners.

The coffeeshop owners used to be very satisfied to have a wife and happy to drive a Mercedes Benz in the past, but not so now. Now, they want to keep mistresses and girlfriends, and drive a Ferrari instead.

The property owners are worse than the coffeeshop owners. Their greed really knows no boundaries. The sky is the limit. The more they increase the rental the better.

And the property agents, who directly benefit from higher rental (the higher the increase the bigger their commission) are the main catalyst of this crazy rental increase every year.

So, moral of the story: Never trust the inflation rate stated by the government or any professor!


A-non-y-mouse.

Covid19 - Are you ready folks? Vax wanes like batteries, get re-charged now!

COVID-19 vaccine pass will be applied with 6-month validity period this week

SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- Proof of vaccination required for access to multiuse facilities will be valid only for six months after the primary series or booster doses starting Monday, health authorities said as they seek to stem the latest upsurge in virus cases.

Under the tightened measure, those who completed the primary series on July 6 last year or before will not be allowed to use those facilities starting Monday if they are not administered with a booster shot, officials said.

The so-called vaccine pass is required for people to enter restaurants, cafes, theaters, cram schools and other indoor multipurpose facilities. The measure will be applied to department stores and large discount store chains Jan. 10.

Unvaccinated people should present negative COVID-19 test results that were issued within 48 hours in a bid to use such facilities. The government plans to adopt the pass system for youths in March after a one-month grace period.

The vaccine pass rules will be implemented with a seven-day grace period. The government plans to impose a fine or take administrative actions against violators starting Jan. 10.

The move comes as South Korea is struggling to stem the spike in COVID-19 cases and the fast spread of the omicron variant.

The country added 3,833 new COVID-19 infections Sunday, raising the total caseload to 639,083. It reported 93 more omicron variant cases, bringing the total to 1,207.

Anonymous