Donald Trump's Trade War is 10 Years Too Late -Part 1

In 2009, the year after the 2008 GFC (Global Financial Crisis), world trade shrank for the first time in half a century. China then was far more dependent on the American market in terms of percentage share of exports to GDP.

Over the past 10 years, China's GDP more than doubled, averaging more than 7% per annum, though economic growth ranges between 6.5% to 6.9% in the last 3 years but overall the average annual growth rate was well over 7% in the past decade for the Chinese economy to more than double between 2007 to 2018.

After the onset of the 2008 GFC, the drastic fall of demand for Chinese exports in the American and European markets, massive efforts and policy initiatives were taken by the Hu/ Wen led Chinese government to diversify and restructure the economy away from the export-led economic growth especially to the debt-laden American economy which is predicted to implode cyclically given its massive imbalance in its GDP consumption spending composition, savings rate, budget deficit etc. After 10 years of silent but relentless slogging, the Chinese economy is far more diversified, urbanisation has continued to intensify, services has become much larger as a share of GDP, social security has improved and more and more Chinese consumers are confident and willing to spend on consumption. All these implied that any protectionist measure especially tariffs would harm the American consumers and economy much much more than the Chinese.

With the US economy heavily in debt and the average consumers highly leveraged, the days of the American economy as the number one consumers are likely numbered and its importance diminishing each passing day. Any further escalation of the current budding trade war posts far more systemic threat to the American than the Chinese.

All the major political events in China such as last year Oct Party's Congress and this year March NPC are over. President Xi Jinping has consolidated his power and the people and society are ready to stand united behind the government in any economic showdown forced upon them by the imperial American white supremacists. On the other hand, the domestic political battles in the US are just beginning and subjected to change especially from missteps in managing the economy and international relations which bring more setbacks than benefits to the American economy.

Donald Trump is facing a more and more uphill battle in the upcoming mid-term election to maintain the Republican razor thin majority in the US Senate and given more and more House of Representatives seats held by the Republic are becoming hot battle grounds, even the majority in the lower Congress is under threat. By losing their majority in the coming mid-term, Donald Trump would probably become the most "besieged" US President in history and his remaining term may just become pure lame duck and all about dodging impeachment as much as possible. Also he will likely face a strong challenge for the 2020 Presidential bid within his party if he survives a full term till 2020.

Given such outlook, likely Donald Trump would become more and more desperate in maintaining the majority in the Congress. Desperation probably would lead to taking more and unnecessary high risks. As most of his best advisors are gone and now surrounded by like-minded hawks, the perils of groupthink under such circumstances are much more heigthened and the enactment of "Bay of Pigs 2" groupthink fiasco may become more and more of a reality.

Above article posted by Leo81

Singapore's Killing Fields

Singapore's own Killing Fields were forgotten by many, history let to rest. No one wants to talk about it any more. Why would they want to bring up bad memories that would tarnish their good friends, embarrass them for their crime against humanity when they regard the Japanese as the highly respected and most trusted big power in Asia, according to a silly banana.

Thank you Aqil Haziq Mahmud for bringing these Killing Fields to light again.

After more than 70 years, the painful memories of those whose loved ones were massacred by the brutal invading Japanese soldiers would linger on, would not go away. Many children lived without their parents, parents without their children, wives and daughters without their husbands and brothers. The tragedies of this dark chapter of a hapless people cruelly rounded up and shot and buried in mud, without coffin or ceremony, must never be forgotten. The ugly Japanese, the beasts of WW2, thought a few words of apologies and some money would be enough to erase the pain and suffering and the horrors of those that fell victims and their families. Did they return the loots, the national treasures? No way. Such barbaric crime against humanity cannot be forgotten, except by the rootless and shameless bananas.

Hundreds of thousands were killed in cold blood and in glee by the insane and senseless Japanese. And the lying and deceitful Japanese as usual put the death toll at a measly 5,000. Such blatant refusal to admit the truth and their evil crime against the civilians of Singapore and other parts of Asia and SE Asia is the hallmark of the Japanese, and it is baffling that some daft, descendants of the victims of Japanese aggression, would regard them as the most trusted big power in Asia, and supporting the remilitarisation of Japan to conduct wars again. In China alone they massacred more than 30 million Chinese.

Below are some extracts from Aqil's article in the Channel News Asia on 7 April 18 on the Singapore killing fields.

"Mr Goh, who was aged 25 at the time, had just uncovered a mass grave filled with piles of bones belonging to victims of the Second World War. This was near Jalan Puay Poon in Bedok, close to where Temasek Junior College now sits.

The victims were killed in Operation Sook Ching, a “purge” campaign targeted at the Chinese in Singapore. Those suspected of being anti-Japanese were hauled into lorries and executed at remote locations across the island. Jalan Puay Poon was one of the killing grounds.

According to a National Library Board resource, the Japanese put the official Sook Ching death count at 5,000, although the actual figure is believed to be much higher...Mr Goh, now 81, estimated that thousands were killed and buried at the Jalan Puay Poon site, which contained several mass graves. 

“We didn’t dare touch it, so we quickly covered it,” Mr Goh said of his discovery. Eventually the bones were dug out, washed with water and disinfectant, then dried in the sun. Once ready, they were put in 1m-tall funeral jars.

Mr Goh would also go on to scour at least 10 other sites in places like Punggol, Bukit Timah and Choa Chu Kang. The exhumations lasted at least six years, producing 681 jars of bones that were filled to the brim....(RB-Many were also massacred on the beaches of Pulau Blakang Mati now Sentosa, East Coast, Punggol and Changi).

But the sheer size of the Jalan Puay Poon site meant the four-man squad was overwhelmed. Eventually, more than 50 people worked over a year to exhume the bones there....Workers toiled in the sweltering heat from 9am to 6pm, six days a week....The remains were transported by lorry to the Civilian War Memorial on Beach Road. Each truck could only carry 30 jars to avoid breaking them....

Mr Goh said 38 lorries would pull in at the Jalan Puay Poon site. “At 9am they lined people up one by one and started shooting,” he recalled. “The gunshots were never-ending.” This would go on till the evening."

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/grave-bones-world-war-ii-victims-singapore-sook-ching-10089202

Trade war offers great opportunities for Singapore

The trade war between China and the US offers great opportunities for Singapore despite doomsayers saying the contrary. When China cancels all its orders for soya beans and pork and other food stuff, and this could also apply to Boeing aircraft, the American producers and manufacturers would have their hands full of these products that their warehouses could not hold. What are they going to do with all the foodstuff and beans and aircraft?  There will be over production, over capacity and over employment that would need to be shed.

Who has the money to buy these excess produce and aircraft? If Singapore is smart, ask for fire sale prices. Make sure they are dirt cheap. The Americans must sell, desperate to sell, and there would not be many buyers with the dole. It will be buyer’s market.

What would Singapore do with the purchases? For aircraft, there is SIA and its subsidiaries to pick them up. SIA then can cancel its orders for Boeings as well. With the fire sales, there is no need to go ahead with the orders at high prices. Sorry Trump, you slapped Singapore with Broadcom, now it is only fair that Singapore strikes back.

Singapore can also quietly negotiate with China, the original buyer of Boeings to offer them at greatly reduced prices and make a commision just by being the middleman. This can also apply to the soya beans, pork and whatever. The real end losers would be the American farmers and Boeings and other American producers. China could pick up the same stuff for a song with Singapore making the money and the Americans making the losses.

Singapore should quickly send a special team to the US to pick up these great bargains that come once in a life time. But don't tell Trump that Singapore is capitalising on the spoils of war. Tell Trump Singapore is there to help. Trade war is good for Singapore. Let them fight and Singapore can pick up the pieces.

What do you think? There are caveats of course. The relations between Singapore and the US and China must be really good, not fake good. And the price must be really dirt cheap for China to want to buy.

Now is saying that trade war is bad?

All the real news or all the fake news?

In the Select Committee on fake news, Janil Puthucheary quoted this, ‘a survey published by REACH indicated 92% of Singaporeans want tougher legislation against “fake news”, with a majority vouching for perpetrators to be punished.'
 
This one I say is 100% real news. Why I say so? One, a minister would not lie or would not anyhow misquote. Two, Reach is an official govt platform, so would not lie. Three, the people responding to Reach are honest and sincere Singaporeans reflecting on the views of honest and sincere Singaporeans in the whole island.
 
If I were to conduct a similar survey among the MPs, all 89 of them, NCMP and NMP excluded, 83 would support more stringent laws and 6 would oppose. That would give a 93% supporting for more stringent laws.
 
If I were to conduct a survey among the SDP or WP followers or some other opposition party followers, I think I would get 100% against more stringent laws. This is also real news.
 
And hypothetically, if I were to walk into a kopitiam and ask the Ah Pek and Ah Ma political analysts to kee chiu, I think got chance 90% or more would be against more stringent laws because in the kopitiam they talked about anything. Stringent laws may tangkap them before they closed their mouths. But the result could vary depending on which constituency or GRC is the kopitiam in.
 
If I were to conduct a survey in mysingaporenews, I think at least 70% would vote against more stringent laws. There is one caveat, if Raymond did not bring in his whole gang of IBs to vote. If the latter happens, then the result could be 70% in favour of more stringent laws.
 
All the above surveys are real surveys, real news, not fake news. Everyone is telling the truth. Now, if one is to avail himself to all these surveys, what is the conclusion? You tell me lah? Who is right, who is telling the truth and who is spreading fake news? It is controversial lah. So what is real news and what is fake news? Depends on who you are and whether you are the law or you are an outlaw. Tiok boh?

Part 5: Thucydides Trap vs Kindleberger Trap

Current Harvard University Professor Joseph S. Nye Jr. who served as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council between 1993 to 1994 under the Clinton Administration and subsequently as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs between 1994 to 1995, wrote in early Jan 2017 in an article in ProjectSydicate.org before the inauguration (20 Jan 2017) of current US President Donald Trump about what history has in store for him ... The following are extracts from that article:

"As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares his administration’s policy toward China, he should be wary of two major traps that history has set for him. The “Thucydides Trap,” cited by Chinese President Xi Jinping, refers to the warning by the ancient Greek historian that cataclysmic war can erupt if an established power (like the United States) becomes too fearful of a rising power (like China). But Trump also has to worry about the “Kindleberger Trap”: a China that seems too weak rather than too strong.
Charles Kindleberger, an intellectual architect of the Marshall Plan who later taught at MIT, argued that the disastrous decade of the 1930s was caused when the US replaced Britain as the largest global power but failed to take on Britain’s role in providing global public goods. The result was the collapse of the global system into depression, genocide, and world war. Today, as China’s power grows, will it help provide global public goods?
In domestic politics, governments produce public goods such as policing or a clean environment, from which all citizens can benefit and none are excluded. At the global level, public goods – such as a stable climate, financial stability, or freedom of the seas – are provided by coalitions led by the largest powers."

As many foreign ministers and public servants working in foreign affairs would be aware, the current international political system of nation states has existed since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Another renowned Harvard University political scientist at the John F Kennedy School of Government Professor Graham T. Allison Jr. observed in his 2017 book "Destined for War: Can the Americans and China avoid Thucydides Trap?" that since the late 15th century, there were about 16 historical case studies of Thucydides' Trap out of which 75% of them (12 cases) ended up in wars and the remaining 25% (4 cases) avoidance of wars.

In 2015 when China President Xi JinPing met the then US President Barack Obama, President Xi noted in his speech: "The US and China need to work together to avoid Thucydides Trap - destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers: should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves."

On that, former US President Barack Obama said: "I don't agree with the interpretation of Thucydides Trap that an established power must have conflict with an emerging power. Major powers like China and the US must prevent conflicts as much as possible. I believe the two countries are capable of managing the disagreement."

Alas, when current US President Donald Trump was elected, the first "act" he did was to "shred" the TPP agreement "into pieces" ...

Could US President Donald Trump still have gone ahead with his recent trade walls he erected against several countries' imports ranging from solar panels, refrigerators, steel, aluminium etc if he did not oppose TPP at the outset?

Post by Concerns of a Heartland Sinkie