South China Sea – History versus geography

I normally would not care to comment on what the lunatics said. There was one that posted a comment in the Today forum calling Singapore to take sides with the Americans against China in the South China Sea dispute. He urged Singapore not to remain neutral as neutrality was a sign of appeasement. This kind of thought must come from the same mindset that Singapore could punch above its weight and would make a difference in geopolitical struggle. Many Singaporeans still did not know that standing on the head of a tiger and shouting out loud did not really mean anything as the power came from the tiger and not the mouse.

Another forumer replied in the Today paper calling the one suggesting that Singapore must take sides with the Americans against China as naïve. The naïve in his own way thought he was the judge of the South China Sea dispute and already decided that China was wrong in his deluded mind. No need to ask why he thought he was the one to judge the right or wrong of such a dispute.

The norms of international relations went through many phases starting with historical claims. Every native today claimed ownership of the land on historical grounds. They were the first settlers or founded the land first. Even the Jews were claiming their rights from history to own Israel as a God given land. Removing the historical justification, then all the natives in South East Asia or the whole world would have no rights to their land.

The next unwritten law was conquest. Past civilizations and their empires were decided by conquest. Then you have the Egyptian Empire, the Persian Empire, Ottoman Empire, Greek and Roman Empire also the Chinese Empire. And their territories grew or shrank according to their power and influence.

This was eclipsed by a moderated version of power and conquest in colonialism. The rule then was based on the western version of the Doctrine of Christian Discovery originated from the Vatican. The papal bull proclaimed that all the non Christian land is occupied by sub humans and the Christian Europeans had the right to conquer and seized their lands.

Many countries today were established on the above principles, historical rights, conquest or the Doctrine of Christian Discovery. Anyone wants to rubbish all these precedence and historical claims to start afresh? The law of history, conquest and the Doctrine of Christian Discovery no longer relevant, to be overruled by the new Rule of Law of the Sea based on geography?

The lunatic claimed that geography and the Rule of Law of the Sea now stand supreme and override historical claims, and the claims of conquest and colonialism? Well, in the asylum, the lunatics are the kings and they can claim anything they want.

Singapore to take sides with the Americans to fight the Chinese over claims in the South China Sea that it has nothing to do with? Or Singapore must guarantee freedom of navigation of the high seas and must defend this right. Oh, I see, Singapore can punch above its weight and its voice means a lot and the super powers are trembling when Singapore opens its mouth and decides to take sides.

Committee on the Future Economy of Singapore

A task force has been set up headed by Heng Swee Kiat to look into the future of Singapore’s economy. The Committee has identified five key areas in the development of the Singapore economy. Heng Swee Kiat would have a deputy in S Iswaran. The two will gather a team of 30 experts and professionals from different industries and backgrounds to chart the future of Singapore.

30 years ago Hsien Loong too headed a similar committee to look into the future of Singapore and an appointment of such a nature has very serious implications. In Hsien Loong’s case it was to put on notice that he is the PM in the making and the Committee he sat on would be used to cultivate and build his support base. Heng Swee Kiat is now given the same opportunity to build his base and looking good to be the future PM in the making.

A Committee to look into the economic development of the country is part and parcel of the planning process and also indicates the priorities of the govt. We had seen two decades of growth at all cost and how it has changed the fabric of our society and the demography of the people, now with many new citizens and foreigners.

What is missing till now is the security angle. The security of the country did not seem to warrant any attention other than the doctrine of a strong defence force to thwart a foreign invasion. The danger of bringing in so many foreigners and allowing them to take a controlling stake in many key industries and positions surely must deserve more considerations and raise concerns on the security of the country. How would these new citizens and foreigners impact on our national security, social security and the life of our citizens are serious matters that cannot be left to chance.

Would the govt think it necessary to form a Committee to review the security implications of the liberal and indiscriminate immigration policy? What is the point of economic growth when it ends up with the people losing their jobs, homes and even country to foreigners, to be replaced by foreigners?  What could happen if there is an international crisis, war, etc that calls on the loyalties of the new citizens and PRs and residents in the country to take sides or being exploited or attracted to do damage to the country’s security and other aspects of life and industries in the country?  What would happen if the Committee for economic growth recommends another CECA type of free trade agreements and open the immigration door wider still?

The security people must play a bigger role and a Committee on Security is calling and urgent in view of the immigration policy, the large foreign population and the problems of terrorism all over the world.  We cannot take our national security for granted and hope for the best.

What is Chee Hean doing or thinking as the Coordinating Minister for Defence and National Security? Should he call for the formation of a Committee to look into the security of our country?

India’s superpower dream

It is natural that a country with more than 1b people and going to be the most populous nation in the world, India will aspire to be a superpower one day.  The reawakening of the Indian civilization and the realization of its potential, if every Indian could earn a per capital income half of what an average American is getting, India will be rich like hell and its GDP many times bigger than the Americans. For the time being, India knows that it is a far fetch dream to overtake the Americans. Its main target is China, to over take China in everyway, to be the Number One in Asia. No need to be bothered about overtaking Japan.

The thinking of the Indian elite and political leaders is clear and manifested in every inch of Indian literature and the Indian mass media. They talk, sleep and dream of being the Number One super power in Asia. And China is the target to beat. The Indians did not hide their ambition. They are not contented with just the Indian Ocean. Never mind if the Americans is controlling the Indian Ocean through their stronghold military fortress in Diego Garcia. Over taking the Americans and chasing them away from the Indian Ocean can wait. China is what India is looking out for.

The Indians have been playing military war games with the Americans and the Japanese, in the Indian Ocean, in the South China Sea and in the East China Sea, to show to the world that Indi has arrived and is extending its influence to the Pacific Ocean. To over take China is tough. What India could hope for is to hold back China, keep China in check, not by India of course, but to play the American and Japanese game, using the two to contain China.

In an article by a Brahma Chellaney in the Today paper on 21 Dec, taken from a Project Syndicate source, this Indian professor wrote, ‘Why China must pay a cost for its actions in South China Sea’. It took the same stance as the West, that China has no right to the islands it is claiming, calling China’s historical claim weak. And he is suggesting that the Americans and the Japanese, together with Little India, the superpower aspirants, to take on China with a big stick, to extract a price on China for developing the islands.

He totally ignores the rights of the Chinese to develop their own islands, their own land and territories. From the China’s perspective, a Chinese professor would have written, ‘Why can’t China develop its own islands in the South China Sea?’ It all depends on which side one is taking and what logic or assumption one is taking. To the Chinese, it is perfectly normal for them to develop what is in their territory, even extracting all the oil and resources from the surround sea. To those who want to have a share of these resources, they would want to challenge China’s claim and want a piece of the resources for themselves.

For India, this is a great opportunity to prod the Americans and Japanese to get into an open conflict with China, and the bystander would stand to gain when they fight. The Indian super power dream will be realized earlier if these powers ended up destroying each other over the little islands in the South China Sea.

Every player has a game plan to favour their vested interests. There is a confluence of interest in the Americans, Japanese and Indians to want to go to stir trouble with China in Chinese territory. It will be a power play and will be decided by who carries the bigger stick. And to the players and adventurers, is the stake big enough, good enough to play with fire.

China could play the same game as India. But India is too far behind to worry China. Even Japan is no issue. China’s main concern is the Americans. China will tackle the Americans in many other ways that would hurt the Americans more than wanting a war in the South China Sea. China must copy the American doctrine of fighting wars away from its shores and create trouble for the Americans away from China. The Americans are thinking that they are in control of the situation and having the upper hand. When they could not even deal with Syria, with ISIS and the Russians, they must be dreaming that they can take on China and thinking it is another cakewalk.

China is unlikely to go into war with the Americans militarily. There are many options and cards the Chinese can play.  Boosting the Russian efforts in Syria would be a good start and drag the Americans into a bigger war in the Middle East. As for ambitous India, happy dreaming. They are not a factor in the Chinese calculus for a long time to come. They are irrelevant no matter how loud they shouted.

Catherine Lim’s open letter to Hsien Loong

$150,000 damage to Hsien Loong. This is the court’s ruling against Roy Ngerng in the defamation suit taken up by Hsien Loong against him. Many eyes were rolling but most people kept quiet. What is there to say anymore? This is the normal and better to get use to it. But Catherine Lim is not going to let it rest. She wrote an open letter to Hsien Loong. Below are a few paras from her letter.

‘Sir

It was with much dismay that I read the report ‘Blogger ordered to pay PM 150k in damages’ in the Straits Times of 18 December 2015. I was less struck by the specifics of a court case that Singaporeans must have been following with great interest over the months – the standpoints taken by the contending parties, the various judicial processes, the assessment of damages to be paid to the plaintiff – than by one stark fact: once again, Sir, your powerful government is putting to use its most powerful instrument for silencing critics, namely, the defamation suit.

This dreaded instrument that had been created in a past era to punish political opponents specifically and instil fear in the people generally, could not have appeared at a more inappropriate time. For this is supposedly a period of sweeping change and new connection with the people, following the PAP’s resounding victory in a highly fraught general election. Charged with new energy, the government has been engaged in a massive exercise of goodwill and generous giving to the people, firstly to consolidate and strengthen the support that they had given in the election, and secondly, to lead them, during this crucial period of transition, into a new era of PAP leadership that promises to be even better connected with their needs and aspirations…

Catherine quoted words like amity, unity, magnanimity, grace, enlightened creativity, courage etc etc hoping that her message will get through to Hsien Loong and maybe the latter will have a change of heart in view of the great election victory and the hope for sweeping changes and a new ethos of kindness and compassion. Many thought the overwhelming victory to the PAP will lead to goodwill and generosity and not an endorsement of past practices and norms.

Would it be, would Catherine’s appeal to the heart and emotion of Hsien Loong do anything or change anything to minimise the financial damages to Roy Ngerng?

The war against ISIS is a big joke

Everyone is going into Syria to fight the ISIS. And the ISIS keeps growing from strength to strength. The Americans and its allies, Nato countries, Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries, all of them are forming alliances to fight ISIS. The Russians have moved in in a big way, air, naval and soldiers on the ground to join the Syrian armies fighting the ISIS.

What is real? Russian aircraft got shot down by Turkey. Latest report American bombers struck and killed Syrian govt soldiers. Where are the ISIS casualties? Oh everyone is attacking the ISIS. It looks like the parties really fighting the ISIS are the Russians and the Syrian govt forces. The rest are putting up a show attacking the ISIS but really attacking the Russians and Assad’s soldiers.

What is the most important factor in the war? ISIS growing stronger when everyone is supposed to be attacking them. It is the presence of more Russian forces on the ground. And this is the most critical factor that is prompting Washington to want to put boots on the ground in Syria. They cannot allow the Russians to be the most powerful foreign forces in Syria. They cannot afford to let the Russians destroyed the ISIS. And the only way to check on the Russians, to shoot down Russian aircraft and to destroy Assad’s forces is to bring in the American soldiers. Perhaps it is a good excuse to drag in some silly and unthinking allies in another Coalition of the Unwilling, to fight the Russians and the Syrian forces.

How, who are the silly govts that would volunteer their soldiers to fight the Russians and the Syrians in the name of fighting the ISIS?

Don’t ask the Europeans except maybe France and UK who would be willing do it, the rest would say No, thank you.

Would anyone want to ask how come the Russians and the Syrians are being attacked all the time and not ISIS?

In John Harding’s view expressed in his blog, ‘Even though Saudi Arabia said all the right things in announcing their 34-nation Islamic military coalition against terrorism, their words were only a sham….. “The Saudis are under a lot of pressure, for what they’re doing in Yemen, from the accusations that they’re spreading Wahhabi ideology [i.e. ISIS ideology}, and for what they are not doing on the military side of the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS in Syria and Iraq. So I can see that this would have some propaganda value for them,” says Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat in Middle Eastern affairs who is now a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington….. More precisely, how can Saudi Arabia, the founder and supporter of ISIS, join any coalition to defeat ISIS? ISIS is the child of Wahhabi ideology, the Saudi brand of radical Islam.’

John Harding forgot to mention that the midwife of ISIS is the USA. So why would the US want to destroy the ISIS who is doing all the work for them, to destabilize the Middle East and keep the region burning and the Arabs fighting and killing themselves and no time to live a normal life and no time to work on their oil fields and to build a functioning govt for their people?