GE 2015 – Counting the pins fall

GE2011 was a watershed election in the sense that a formidable GRC helmed by a top minister plus another minister plus another going to be minister fell to the opposition. It was quick a shocking event to know that it could happen and happened to a top minister with PM potential. And he took along two other ministers with him.

After this event, the infallibility of a GRC do not seem so infallible after all. But what is more troublesome were the series of events of policies that occurred after elections. The unease and uncomfortable feeling of the voters cannot be simply ignored. The slew of unpopular policies by the Govt is still right up there in the minds of the voters. The PWPs, the jobless PMEs, the high cost of living, the CPF that cannot be withdrawn but for a small amount, the Medishield Life, CPF Life, and many others, make the issue of high ministerial pay so small, would all come into play in the run up to polling day.

The opposition parties would not have enough time even to talk about the consequences of these policies. There are just too many things to talk about time. And then the departure of LKY which to the PAP looks like a big plus seeing so many people queuing up to bade him final farewell. From another angle, it is like removing the crown of a huge tree and everything looks so naked and fragile below, so vulnerable. How LKY’s departure will tell on the PAP, whichever way, is going to be dramatic.

What the ground is saying, or what the little bird is saying, is that the results would be quite earth shaking. Never have Singaporeans ever think they are going to see this in a GE. Many are counting how many ministers will no longer be ministers after the GE. The pins will fall. It is a matter of how many and which pin will hit the ground first.

Would it be 4, or 8 or more? Never has this pins falling been so sure, only a matter of how many.  This is going to be an election where many ministers would hope would not have been called. It would be a case of minister one day and common folks the next. It would be the same for many MPs and MP hopefuls.  How many will become commoners again?

This would be a GE that only the khong cums would be shouting, we want a good fight, we are looking for a good fight, we were so disappointed we did not get a good fight.

Marine Parade the first GRC likely to go to the opposition

The redrawing of electoral boundaries makes Marine Parade a ward with the most changes, with a cut and a paste. Presumably the changes are meant to favour the PAP in Marine Parade. The weakest link in the team, Tin Pei Ling, has been hived out to front a single seat in MacPherson. Many political observers see her as a liability and her absence in a way should strengthen Marine Parade some what. But this is off set by the inclusion of Joo Chiat. The marginal win at Joo Chiat must be scary for the PAP and it must be hoping to retain Joo Chiat by making it part of the firmer Marine Parade GRC. How would this work out is yet to be seen as the voters in Joo Chiat seem to be swinging towards the WP camp.

The incumbents in Marine Parade are no guarantees for a win. Chok Tong, the strongest candidate due to his Premiership status is likely to be retired. Tan Chuan Jin has not much to show during his term in MOM and would not be the persuasive factor to carry Marine Parade. The rest of the team are just so so.

Now comes the checkmate move by Low Thai Khiang. He has announced that WP would contest Marine Parade. Low Thia Khiang has a very good track record in winning elections. He broke ground by winning Hougang. Again he broke the records by winning a GRC, once seen as near impossibility. For Low Thia Khiang to make his move in Marine Parade and East Coast, he must have read his cards well. He must have sense the moment has come.

PAP’s performance against NSP in the last election was nothing to crow about. NSP was a very weak team and the Nicole Seah effect was enough to rattle the PAP team and nearly knocked them over. The WP is no NSP, and has a more respectable track record and seen as a real challenger to the PAP in times to come. A so so team in Marine Parade is going to be a tough call and the chances of it falling to the WP is quite expectable. Would the PAP boost up the team with more ministers and take a big gamble to lose big?

Just a few days after the electoral boundaries have been changed and confirmed, and with some comments and indications of intent from the opposition parties, Marine Parade is now hanging by a very thin thread. And the bonus that could come along would be MacPherson. If top notch candidates like Dr Koh Poh Soon can lose to Ah Lian, Tin Pei Ling would need to a miraculous act to stand a chance against an opposition candidate on her own. Very likely she would be retired on medical ground from this GE.

It is looking like 1 GRC and 1 SMC down before the GE even started.  My God, if this is the case, Tan Chuan Jin would be no more a minister.

PAP taking things for granted without knowing that things have changed

The ground is sweet and things should go according to plans. The way the PAP conducts its election campaign has been honed over 5 decades and it must be presumed that other than some changes in the players, the execution of the election campaign would be very similar to the past, with a few minor touch ups here and there. It has been a winning plan, a winning formula though losing effectiveness, but another victory is just a formality.

The GRCs continue as a main concept to carry most of the candidates to Parliament despite the damage it can cause for each GRC lost. The tea party will continue to pick the best candidates to replace the ageing and less performing ones, and also as part of a renewal exercise. Some new faces will come, and some old faces will depart. All other things will more or less remain unchanged.

The theme or war cry may take on a new focus and emphasis. And that would be well discussed and taken care of.

What I think will be a major issue, other than the many hot potato issues, for the election would be the part time versus full time MPs. At $16,000 a piece, it is no small change to the average voters. The PAP may not think this is a big deal as they are accustomed to millions of dollars and would not see this as an important issue. To the voters, they will be thinking why they should be voting in a part time MP for $16,000 a month when they could get a full time MP working for them. Would they be thinking that they have been short changed by getting a part time MP? Would they be thinking that this part timer may not be fully committed to looking after their problems and issues affecting them? How much could they expect from a part timer when there is someone willing to work for them full time?

The concept of part time MP may not be acceptable today when the allowance is a healthy $16,000 a month and with a lot of perks, like being courted to be directors here and there. For such a lucrative position, why should the voters be content with a part timer?

There is a shift in the mindset of the voters today. They are demanding value for money. Spending quality time and disappeared, even disappearing from Parliament sessions would not be taken lightly. This is an area that the PAP did not think needs changing. And this is a point that may decide who the voters would vote for.

Do you want a part timer serving you or a full time MP? Would the voters take it kindly when offered a part timer by one party and a full timer by another party? Why settle for less?

Why the need to send Singaporeans overseas?

The NTUC has set up an institution called Employment and Employability Institute e2i, to train Singaporeans to compete and work overseas. This seems to be a big preoccupation of the NTUC and is like a cure all for the ills of Singaporeans, especially the PMEs who are finding it difficult to get jobs at home. The main reason is that since they cannot find jobs in Singapore, the NTUC is going to train them to find jobs overseas. 

Can anyone see the silliness of this logic? Our own talents, well educated and experienced, cannot find jobs here when we can provide more than half a million good jobs to foreigners who are likely to be less educated and less experienced, and may even be using fake degrees or degrees from degree mills, and we have to send our talents overseas to make a living. And with the strength of our dollars, and the low salaries that other countries are paying, (don’t ever think they could get better paying jobs in well paying western countries if they cannot make it here), is this a better alternative? Yes, better than being jobless at home.

I am not going to discuss why our PMEs are being replaced by foreigners. I know all the silly reasons that are craps at best. The answers are too obvious. Nothing to do with their talents and skills for sure.

There are times, and with good reasons when we want to send our talents overseas. The organisation is expanding and we need our people to go overseas to take charge of our investment. No need for e2i for such postings. Does this ring a bell, taking charge of our investment overseas by our own people? Does it make any sense to have foreigners coming here to take charge of our investments?

When we send out people overseas, it is a kind of promotion, and they are going to see an improvement in their income and value. We don’t send our people overseas to earn less, in more junior positions. Even when our PMEs went abroad, they are being head hunted or they found better positions that are paying them better and worth the sacrifice. Others may be venturing out on their own, not as low paying employees.

The govt of the past encouraged our people to go out to seek their fortune, not to beg for a bowl of rice. In those days jobs were not so plenty at home, and we need new fields for our talents to explore. And the exchange rates were in our favour. It made a lot of sense to do that for the able and talented.

Today, we have so many good jobs at home. Why the need to send our people overseas, and then fill these good jobs by funny foreigners with funny backgrounds and qualifications? Is there anything funny or wrong with this thinking and policy? We are not short of good jobs for our own people. Foreigners are flying in by the plane loads to seek their fortune here, a better quality of life in one of the finest city in the world, for good jobs and good incomes. We are telling our people to vacate this city to rough it out in the 3^rd World cities to earn less, to live less comfortably without the convenience of home and to leave their expensive castles and families here!

On the other hand the foreigners are bringing their families here to enjoy everything we built, a safe, clean and orderly place, to bring up children. What the hell is going on? Lee Kuan Yew said, ‘nobody can just walk in and take over what we created’. What do you think the govt is doing? Inviting everyone here to take over what we have created, take over good jobs, our women, our homes, and celebrating it as a good thing. And then tell our people, please go out to make a living, this city state has no good jobs for them. We only want foreigners to live here and work here.

What is going on? Crazy, or something more serious is happening?

Japan not getting it right in immigration

There is this trend of thought that Japan is not doing it right with respect to welcoming immigration to promote economic growth. Japan should lear from Singapore by flooding the country with foreign talents to achieve economic growth. For the last 20 years, Japan was experiencing near to zero growth as compared to Singapore’s exciting growth numbers brought about by the influx of foreigners. Short of calling the Japanese stupid, Singapore is being polite by just sharing our great experience with immigrants and foreign talents

The issue is whether the Japanese are enjoying better quality of life or otherwise without the foreigners. What many did not consider is the external wing of Japan where Japanese companies are all over the world and this must have contributed to their national revenue other than GDP. What is certain is that Japan is still having the highest quality of life for its people, the richest nation in Asia on a per capita basis, with the biggest savings and can easily cough out billions, hundreds of billions if needed to share with the world.

Another important point is that the Japanese have little regards to the quality of foreign talents. They believe in themselves and not in a side look down on the foreigners. And they have proven that they are good, better than the foreigners unlike daft and untalented Sinkies, a city with no talents and very proud about it, bragging about it everyday.

Without the influx of foreigners, low fertility rate and low GDP growth, the Japanese are doing very well and not complaining. One thing for sure, the Japanese would not have to live with the complex nature of problems caused by race, religion, culture and lifestyle of foreigners. They would not be dragged down to the 3^rd World with social problems brought about by the foreigners, bad habits, poor hygiene and primitiveness. They would not be a 10 tribe country. They will be Japanese and proud to be Japanese, with no compromise on what they thought best for themselves as Japanese. They don’t have to share political power with foreigners or fear being taken over by foreigners. Their soldiers need not have to look left and right or behind when going to war no knowing if their comrades can be trusted or be killed by their comrades with no chance of defence.

What Singapore has not talk about, refused  to talk about, are the social economic problems that the foreigners would brought with them, their religion, their racial and cultural differences, their lifestyle, beliefs, their loyalties, their primordial instinct and many others that would not surface but would surface at critical times to destroy the social fabric of our country. We have been in a state of denial that the influx of foreigners has only one positive impact, economic growth, and ignore the problems, some very serious to the people and country in the long run.

We are now starting to acknowledge some of these problems reluctantly. We are showing some concerns with the Singaporean identity, our work ethos, our lifestyle, a Singaporean core and how things are falling apart as a people and a nation. The people have started to question why they have to put up with the foreigners and have to provide good jobs and housing for them, losing out to them and to defend them. For the sake of one single factor called growth, we thoughtlessly neglect all the problems that the influx of foreigners have brought with them. And we have not seen anything yet but the damage to the fabric of our nation is indescribable. We should thank our lucky star that these problems have not blown up in our face yet.

The Japanese are not stupid or else they would not be miles ahead of us in everything. We have nothing that is good enough to compare with the Japanese except the fictitious economic growth that is unsustainable. Think we are smarter than the Japanese that we can teach them a thing or two on welcoming foreigners recklessly and thinking everything will be alright? Are we up to it?

The problems that are simmering and brewing and waiting to explode and destroy everything we have built in the first 30 years of our nation making are bidding their time. The Japanese can be very sure that they would not have to face with the kind of problems that we have created for ourselves with so many foreigners of so diverse backgrounds to live in our midst. We are not America, a huge continent with hundreds of millions of people that can absorb and cushion the influx of so many foreigners.

But of course I am likely to be wrong and the super talents must know what they are doing and things are well under control, like the public transport system, the high cost of living, housing and the squeeze that is getting unbearable and the disappearing Singaporean core.

Time for celebration. Let’s party. Look at the good things and how good things can be if we keep going down this road of prosperity. Celebrate like the Trojans and ignore the wooden horse in the city. This is the beauty of not reading history and enjoying the bliss of ignorance.