The
way the 1MDB operates and the attacks on its integrity have become a great
publicity case in Malaysia and a political football
between those in power and those waiting to unseat those in power. Given the
fact that both sides are quite equally matched in political influence and with
significant support on the ground, the contenders are not going to get away
easily or be thumped down without putting up a big fight.
In
the rumour mills, there have been speculations as to how a fund like this would
or could make money for the people behind the fund. And it is interesting to
see the different processes involved and how money is being made. The first
part is the source of fund. As a sovereign fund, the funding is easy if the
people behind it could use all the political influence and power to get cheap
fund without having to go through the due process of qualifications as a
reliable and credible borrower. It is a case of just demand and the money will
appear, OPM, or from govt linked organizations where there is no individual
owners to talk about.
Such
funds are not only easy to come by, the terms of repayment are just as fluid if
not hazy. It can be on a continuous basis with no beginning and no ending,
round tripping or refinancing and refinancing with the funds remaining in the
SWF forever and unaccountable to anyone. With this part secure, there is money,
plenty of money, unlimited supply of money.
The
next big question is how to siphon the money out from the fund. Oh, I have skipped
the investment part completely. Maybe I should touch on this, as suggested by
some analysts as to how the SWF will invest the good money to make good
returns. The trick is NOT to make money. Profitable investments are only good
on paper but not worthwhile if the money cannot be taken out from the fund. So
paper profits or cooking the books to show profits would do.
The
best and easiest part is to lose money, the more the better. Any bad investment
would mean the money in the fund can be drawn down, or lost, spent. With this
model, investment becomes so easy and needs only a little bit of ingenuity.
Find junk companies, boost up their share prices, inflate them as high as possible,
buy high, very high. Then let the price falls and sell at the bottom. Junk
companies can be created by proxies or cronies. Some junk companies can be a
shell or fictitious, never mind. The intent is to lose money in order to get
the money out from the SWF.
Just
imagine if each investment in a junk or fictitious company would lead to a loss
of $300m, how much could be pocketed if 10 such companies would to fail? Easily
$3b and setting aside a few hundred millions for the cronies and proxies would
be small change and everyone very happy.
The
other important trick is to keep the accounts secret to allow the fund to write
whatever profit or loss it so desired. In a way the fund can keep on running in
perpetuity, with new money coming in and pocketed by announcing bad deals and
big losses. Then top up with more of OPMs.
This
is a very simple model of how to make SWFs make money for the people behind
them, no transparency, no accountability, just get a few cronies to go through
the motion of investing in loss making companies over and over again. No one
will bother to check it out, no one will bother to complain and ask for
accountability. 1 MDB was just unfortunate that it could not keep its
activities under wrapped and was exposed prematurely. If not, it could be a
golden goose that would lay unlimited golden eggs.
The
genuine SWFs got to sweat to make money, to justify to shareholders, to govts and
auditors, and be accountable for the profit and loss. It is not easy to make
good and profitable investments. Not everyone is a Warren Buffett. But making ‘sure
loss’ investment is a piece of cake. The small difficulty is how to make the
loss as big as possible and still look genuine.
This
is great fun, oops funs, to operate. No stress, no need to work too hard and
money is coming in by money going out in loss making investments. Simply
ingenious!