China – The nonsense that the analysts would want you to believe

China is in big trouble economically. Its growth rate has gone down from double digits to barely 7%. Serious trouble! There was another article in the msm few days back with the title ‘China’s miracle is running out of steam’ with the author gloating that this is a truth that he had been writing about and is coming true, inevitable.
 
Let’s take a look at China’s 7% GDP growth rate. This is considered bad and China’s economy is going to collapse. Relatively speaking, from more than 10% to 7% is a drop, a substantial fall. Do the opinion makers want to tell you why it is 7% now? When China was growing at more than 10% they were also crying father and mother. Unsustainable, overheating, it will go bust. Now China reined in its runaway economy to make growth more sustainable, intentionally restraining the galloping away economy, it is also bad.
 
And countries making 3% or 4% growth are great, damn great, well done. Even the US and Europe with their less than 2% growth rate is something cheer about, but China’s 7% growth rate is troubling, even if it is intentional held back to cool down the economy. See the bull? They would not even want to know that China has a war chest of more than US$3 trillion to be used, if needed, if intended, to steam roll its economy. It can easily push it up to double digit by burning a bit of its reserves. But that is not what a prudent govt will do. China is engineering a soft landing, and has everything under control and with a lot of money to make it whatever way it wants? Serious trouble?
 
The other issue about China is about not enough immigrant workers from the country side and running out of steam due to labour shortage. What kind of ass thinking is that. China has 1.4b people, many are just breaking out of the poverty trap. Because of the ageing demography, China is short of labour supply? There will be lesser labour supply as the population aged, sure. Is it a good thing or bad thing given a population of 1.4b? Would this lighten the pressure on resource allocation and consumption to bring down the population and allow a good opportunity for restructuring the economy from a low skill to high skill economy with higher productivity and higher value add but less demanding for numbers? The ageing population and the older workers were the less literate population that is something best to reduce and do away with.
 
China’s next phase of economic development and growth could be from a paradigm shift that many developing countries had gone through, from quantitative change to a qualitative change. China has a lot of room to upgrade its economy, to move up the skills ladder where quality workforce is more desirable than quantity of low skill labour.
 
What is the problem? The Chinese leaders are daft, one trick pony, depending on labour and more labour to grow its economy, like the daft labour intensive policies in Singapore? China will see a transition to a new level of growth and it is not even rocket science but a natural progression. The refocus on domestic economy, domestic consumption instead of the high reliance on export, which still has a lot of room to grow. The whole of Asia and Africa is China’s market for growth, not counting Europe and the Americas.
 
China is in deep economic trouble, with US$3 trillion reserves to boot, with an economy growing at a managed 7% growth rate, with a 1.4b pool of untapped talent and a continental size country that needs to be redeveloped?
 
Which are the countries that are really in trouble, with low or negative growth rate, with barely any reserves and high debt, with high cost of living and low productivity, high consumption and low production? China is a low consumption and high production economy with very low cost of production and consumption.
 
Would you believe the silly analysts who wanted you to see what they themselves wanted to see, wanted to believe and keep screaming the glass is half empty? The USA, you wait. China is going to run over and be ahead, to be the world’s number One economy, if not already there, and holding its horses to run at a more manageable pace.
A 7% growth rate for such a huge economy is frightening in absolute numbers. Many countries will be crowing and gloating themselves silly with this number. Sure China has a lot of problems, so do other countries. The fact that they have rode the problems for the last 40 years and still growing speak for itself. Every country will have their host of problems, no exceptions, and China is no exception. It’s the net surplus or positives over the negatives that matters.

The myth of skills set

You need to have the right papers, right experience and the right skills set to be hired. Many PMETs are no longer employable because they don’t have the skills set to be employed. What are the skills set that is needed for one to get hired or to be suitable for a job, especially a high paying one?
 
Should I ask Lim Swee Say? He just said, or ‘believes that his successor is the "right person" for the job.’ Ok, he did not say Chan Chun Sing has the right skills set for the job of Secretary General of the NTUC. He said he believed. Actually not much different, just semantics. 'Kar ki kong, kar ki song'.
 
Chan Chun Sing’s background was a general in the army, a soldier. He had a stint as a minister in the Ministry of Social and Family Development, nothing to do with labour or workers or trade unions. Now what would the skills set be like for someone to fill Swee Say’s position in the NTUC? What are the job specs or job description? What kind of work experience that are related to this job?
 
Other than being a general, and a minister with some relevance in management and making policies at ministerial level, there is totally no relationship in Chan Chun Sing’s experience and training to the job of Secretary General of NTUC. In all counts, ask the recruitment specialists, they would throw his resume out. No relevance, no skills set for the job. Even if he produces a MBA would not be of much relevance.
 
So, how come a person of a diverse background, with unrelated job experience, be the ‘right person’ for the job? This analogy is not to say that Chan Chun Sing is not a super talent? He is a super talent and touted to be the next PM. But if you were to use the same reasoning to dismiss those PMETs who have lost their jobs, it makes his appointment and being the ‘right person’ for the job a bit funny isn’t it?
 
How could a sweeping statement like no skills set be good enough to rubbish all the PMETs as no longer employable but a person with Chan Chun Sing’s military background, nothing to do with workers and trade unions, be suitable, have the skills set for the job?
 
What is wrong with the skills set myth? It is only applicable to PMETs. Or super talents are exceptions? Luckily this position is not thrown to an international recruitment agency to find the right candidate. I am pretty sure Chan Chun Sing’s resume will not match anything for the job. No skills set!
 
What do you think? Got myth or no myth? Why no one says got not skills set? This is what they used to say, head I win, tail you lose.
 
PS. No disrespect to Chan Chun Sing. Just using this example to show the silliness of the no skills set myth. If a recruitment agency wants to reject him for the job, it is so easy to use the no skills set myth and it sounds so logical. Did anyone say political appointments no need to talk about skills set, even for million dollar jobs?

Amos Yee – Making a mountain from a mole hill

Not say I want to say, I think it is unwise to pursue this Amos Yee’s case from the start. It was a video clip, people would have a good laugh and passé. To make this into a case and now snowballing into a monster would extract a heavy political price pay in an election year. I am saying this from the political perspective. It would definitely be an election issue for sure. No amount of damage control can help now. Many people are watching this episode but not saying anything but forming a lot of impressions about it. Only hope the damage is not too serious.
 
And there is another joker who taught it wise to attack Amos Yee outside the court and had his picture taken by so many cameras. What is going on? Hope this joker is a lone wolf and this is a lone wolf incident. Whatever, the perceptions and the court of public opinion is going to be very noisy and not very good for publicity. People tend to put one and one together to get two. It is a PR disaster.
 
Oh, it is reported that Shanmugam is visiting the Vatican City and even meeting Pope Francis. Good for him to get some divine blessing for Singapore. A little enlightenment from the Holy See would be useful and beneficial to Sin City. He should take the opportunity to get a shower of holy water for a good cleansing on behalf of Singapore.
And don’t forget to ask for blessing in front of Prophet Amos in the Vatican.
 
Literary there is now a mountain of issues coming out from a mole hill, something that could be avoided, with a little good communication, yes, didn’t they know good communication can move mountains? Didn’t they say that?
 
God bless. Good timing.

Singapore an education hub compromised

The Singapore Brand and the education hub Singapore is promoting for quality education would be the first victim if degree mills are going to be widespread and accepted without any disapproval shown by the authority. An education hub is all about quality of education and integrity of the institutions and the degree or diploma awarded. No legitimate students looking for quality education and a reputable degree would sign up with a degree mill or come to Singapore’s education hub if the image of degree mills and fake degrees become the norm here.
 
Degree mills and fake degrees will undermine and compromise the institutions of learning here. They will make a mockery of acquiring a good degree from a reputable institution and render them useless or a waste of time. Why waste time and money when a fake will do to get a good job?
 
How could the existence of good quality education and reputable universities exist side by side with fake degrees and degree mills? How could the authority tolerate the flaunting of fake degrees from degree mills and treating them lightly, like no issue and expect some respect for the graduates of legitimate universities?
 
What is the message? On one hand we are promoting quality education. On the other hand we are turning a blind eye to fake degrees and degree mills. Are the institutions of higher learning going to protest when their students are raped openly by the holders of fake degrees and losing out to them in employment opportunities? Do these institutions see the damage done to the value of their degrees and to their graduates?
 
The issue of fake degrees and degree mills has wider implications and consequences not only to the institutions of learning and the Singapore Brand. It will have negative effects on the education industry and the education hub that we are promoting here, to invite foreign students to study here, to grow an industry and revenue for the country.
 
Let me contribute a little to the degree mills. I am going to register for a few Ph Ds. My wall is quite empty and I need a few decorative pieces on it. Better than expensive paintings. Collecting degree mill Ph Ds can be an interesting and cheap hobby. I swear I will not put them in my resume. It is just a past time, a hobby.
 
PS. The Oregon state had named 6 institutions in Singapore offering unaccredited qualifications:
 
1. Cranston University
2. Templeton University
3. Trident University of Technology
4. Vancouver University Worldwide
5. Westmore University
6. Lee Community College
 
ST reported that Vancouver University Worldwide, which was ordered to be shut by the Canadian government in 2007, had been offering its courses in Singapore for several years.
 
(This is posted in an editorial in TRE)

Amos Yee - Identity of attacker not disclosed

Many people are demanding that the police release the photo and identity of the man that attacked Amos Yee out the court house. You can sense the anger and suspicion of the people wanting to know who this man is, how he looks like, where he lives, his family and background that brought about this attack. Nearly a week has passed and the police are not revealing anything.

Those people demanding to know who this man is must look at things from another angle. The police must have learnt a lesson in the Amos Yee case. When Amos Yee was under police custody, handcuffed and shackled, he was safe. I remember many years ago the police handcuffed a photographer photographing the flood in Bukit Timah for his own safety. It is getting to make sense, safety in police custody.

Amos Yee would have been safe under police custody and if his photos and identity were not disclosed. When the masses are braying for his blood, letting him walk around unescorted had proven to be the wrong thing. Also, with his photos everywhere, he could be identified easily. Unfortunately Amos Yee took the safety of our streets for granted and forgot that low crime does not mean no crime. And there are bound to be extremists, the loose ones, hiding somewhere waiting to strike.

This could be a possible reason why the assailant’s identity and photo are not in the newspaper. It would be very embarrassing if there is a repeat incident when this assailant is assaulted outside the court house. Protecting the identity of criminals may be a new practice to be adopted in view of what could happen to such people when there is an unrestrained mob out there with different ideas. Ya, the man may be a violator of the law, he still needs to be protected and not exposed to danger in the public.

And it may be a good thing that Amos is back in custody for his own safety. Amos, please do not opt for bail. It is definitely safer for you under the protection of the police. Now, would his attacker be produced in court wearing a hood for his own safety?

My reasoning ok or not?