The dominance of the PAP is waning since the last GE and the
two disastrous by elections. Joining as a PAP candidate is no guarantee of a
free ticket to Parliament today. There is a new sense of fear among the candidates,
ministers included, that suay suay it would be their last election, ala George
Yeo and his team in Aljunied.
Aljunied GRC, Punggol East and Hougang would be the tiger’s
lair that no candidate would want to be in. The fear is obvious and understandable.
Any opposition ward is not a nice place for the ruling party to contest. It
took nearly 20 years for the PAP to take back Potong Pasir, but more by default
rather than by merit. The SPP made a big blunder by fielding the wrong
candidate. Otherwise Potong Pasir would still be safely in the hands of the
SPP. Having said that, other than those wards won by the WP, Potong Pasir is
still a touch and go thing and a strong opposition candidate would have a very
high chance of wrestling it back from the PAP.
The news of Chan Chun Sing appearing in Sembawang and Khaw
Boon Wan moving to East Coast is sending out a new signal that both Tanjong
Pagar and East Coast GRCs might be vulnerable battle fields. How’s that? Chan
Chun Sing is the PM heir apparent and moving him away from the PAP’s stronghold
in Tanjong Pagar is as good as saying that it is no longer safe. PAP would not
want to risk this PM potential in a risky ward. Putting him in Sembawang must
be seen as lifting him up to safety. They would not be a need to move him from
Tanjong Pagar if it is safe. The safer the better to ensure that Chan Chun Sing
would still be around after the next GE.
Khaw Boon Wan is still seen as a strong minister in the
books of the PAP as there are not many such ministers left. Moving him to East
Coast is like confirming the rumour that Lim Swee Say is either resigning or
East Coast is at high risk of falling. Of course there are several GRCs that
are obviously very weak and highly likely to go the opposition way. And there
are also ministers that are highly vulnerable in the eyes of the public and
have lost their drawing power. Some ministers are clearly a liability and would
not be able to hold on to their forts in the next GE.
This explains the other two fear factors of PAP candidates.
Many would be very uncomfortable being fielded in constituencies or GRCs that
are seen as weak. Given a chance they would not want to go there. And many
would also be worried about being fielded in GRCs helmed by very weak or
unpopular ministers that have very high possibility of losing. It is now not
that comfortable being a PAP candidate when winning is no longer a given. To be in a winning team they must be in safe
constituencies and in the company of reasonably safe ministers.
In fact in opposition wards it is like fighting a losing
battle from the start for PAP candidates. And this same lousy feeling can now
be applied, to a lesser degree, to being field in weak wards or with weak
ministers, like being sent for the slaughter.
The rules of the game have changed and now it is a matter of
how many would not make it in the next GE. Wearing white to do battle is not
like it was before. The confidence of sure win or 90% chance of winning would
not be the case anymore. In most cases, it is like a 50:50 case. And in high
risk or opposition wards it is an uphill task with losing a better certainty.
Kopi Level - Blue, Thank you.