From the very beginning the position of the Americans was
clear. Teymoor used the Great Roman Empire as an example of everything that
goes up must come down. He hit a wall. No
such thing as America
being Number Two to a rising China.
Even if China
becomes the biggest economy, so what? What they avoided saying was that they
carried the big guns and could turn the table anytime they like it and China
would be history. That’s the message.
It is interesting to watch the nuances and the body language
of the American panellists, especially the Ambassador. I could not believe that
an academic discussion on an ‘iffy’ question could cause so much uneasiness and
sensitivity. And Teymoor, one of the best presenters you can find, was doing
his best to balance the tension and you could sense that he too was affected by
it. But being an old hand and very adept at what he was doing, he did manage to
control the situation very well without upsetting anyone, but still not able to
hide the discomfort in him.
The topic was about a hypothetical case in the future, what
if the economic statistics are correct and China surpasses America and becomes
Number One economically, or the Number One superpower. Of course everyone can
dispute on the definition of what Number One means as the overwhelming American
military might is unquestionable for a long time to come. The American economy
could slow down, but the American expenditure on military would always be
maintained to keep this pole position unchallenged and unsurpassed. To the
Americans, this is a non issue. They would ensure it would not happen.
Who would ever think of the Soviet Union
being what it is today? Who would ever imagine, even 30 years ago, that China
could transform itself from a poor backward communist state to challenge the
Americans for the pole position in international affairs? Some crystal ball
gazers would say that the rise of China
is inevitable, like the fall of Singapore
as equally inevitable. The chips are all in place for the rise of China
and the fall of Singapore.
Somehow everything is in place not by intent but it just happened.
Whether China
would overtake America
as Number One is a moot point as no one would agree with the definition. But
the rise of China
as a superpower, as an economically and technologically successful nation is on
the card.
And it is best not to discuss such a topic with the
Americans. It rubs the wrong way and nerves are extra sensitive, like special
needs children. America
will never be Number Two! China
can never dream of being Number One. No way, not in the near future, not in the
distant future.
PS. The Chinese were given a pleasant surprised when they were shoved up the be the Number Two when the Soviet Union self destruct. They too could not believe that they could be Number Two so fast, without any effort on their own.
Kopi Level - Yellow