There was an article in Time World online in March 2013 by a Karl Vick on the Iron Dome that Israel showed to Obama during his visit early this year. In that article it revealed many myths and facts about the claims of missile systems like the Patriots which were much inferior to what the Israelis have produced. It was claimed that no previous missile system has performed anywhere near the Iron Dome. The kill rate is so impressive, a 84% success hit.
What does this
mean? The myth or claims that the Patriots were so invincible as if it could
destroy near to 100% of incoming missiles was simply rubbish. When 84% was
claimed to be so impressive, something that the Israelis were so proud to show
to Obama, what could be the hit rate of the Patriots? It must be quite a
distance off the 84% mark. A 60% hit rate would be very generous for the
Patriots, and it is more likely to be in the 50% or lesser, which is quite the
norm.
What else did
the article inadvertently disclosed that were otherwise top secret information?
A battery of the Iron Dome costs $50m and comes with 20 missiles, a radar and a
control and command system. Each missile thus costs something like $2.5m US
dollars.
What were
these missiles used to hit, or what did the Palestinians threw at the Israelis?
According to the report, since 2005, 4,000 home made missiles were fired into Israel, each costing a few hundred dollars. And the
Iron Dome missile uses a contact fuse, meaning it explodes on contact with the
incoming missile, a direct hit. It also means one missile can hit one incoming
missile.
Let’s work on
the numbers. Assuming there is an attack and 500 missiles were launched by the
Palestinians. With a theoretical hit rate of 84%, only 420 missiles could be
brought down by 500 Iron Dome missiles and 80 will get through. And that is the
best theoretical hit rate. In a real situation, the hit rate cannot be that
high given all sorts of things that could go wrong.
Anyway,
another number worth noting. It needs 1.2 missiles to bring down an enemy
missile or $3m. Get the picture? It takes $3m to bring down a Palestinian
missile that costs only a few hundred bucks. It sure is a very costly missile
system. But wait a minute, this is the best, the Iron Dome. What would be the
numbers if the Patriot System is used? Impressive isn’t it?
Now the myth
of the invincibility of the Patriots and Iron Dome. The Palestinian missiles
are cheap home made missiles that have no ECM or counter measures against a
defensive missile. Those that are going to be launched by the Russians,
Chinese, Iranians and North Koreans, come with counter measures that would
greatly reduce the kill rates of the Patriots and Iron Dome. And there is the
tactic of raining missiles which will saturate a very expensive defensive
system that only has a few missiles to fire will mean that many will just go
through undefended. In a small country and a small area to defend, the cost of
these expensive American and Israeli systems may be manageable. When the
country is big, to deploy them to cover every air space is simply unsustainable
on the defence budget.
All the hypes
about the prowess of the Patriots are just hogwash. The Israelis don’t even
respect them and found them wanting and have to develop their better Iron Dome.
The true kill rate must be quite disappointing but not published.
