Shadow chasing as an art

The Medishield Life is the latest govt effort to solving the high unaffordability problem of health care in Singapore. Admission to a govt general hospital has attracted the same fear as in the days of yore. Our parents and grandparents generations feared hospital admission due to ignorance and the perception of death as most illnesses were left too late and became too serious that admission was akin to dying. Today the fear of admission is more practical, cannot afford to pay and better to die. So here comes the white knight waving Medishield Life in his hand as the saviour of the troubled and very sick.

The runaway property prices have sent shivers down many youngsters and their parents for not being able to afford the affordably priced public housing. The truth that the affordable public housing was unaffordable finally sank in without any admission of guilt or ownership for creating this financial and social fiasco. Alright, never mind, no need to go witch hunting as the problem is being addressed by the most simple solution, to build more flats to meet the high demand. In some way the problem is being tackled with some success but with the prices remaining high and still going higher. Yes, the high price is not really a problem and is allowed to go higher albeit at a slower pace.

The high cost of living coupled with high inflation have made the money so much smaller, or a bigger income but smaller buying power. The silly and ignorant are still very happy that their income is growing and oblivious to their purchasing power. The most badly affected is the average Sinkie with a stagnant real income. The solutions offered so far are more subsidies and more subsidies.

The above three major bugbears of the citizenry have a common syndrome. The high cost of medical care will continue to go higher. The high cost of housing will continue to go higher. The high cost of living will continue to rise. None of the solutions to these problems touches on the need to stop the prices and high cost of living from going higher. Somehow this is not seen as a problem or the cause of all the problems. The prices and high cost of living must naturally go up. Or is it that they cannot be brought down? Or is it that it is good to let them go higher and higher.

I am still very curious why aren’t anyone tasked to solve these problems wants to bring down the runaway prices and cost of living/inflation? In a way this is similar to the population growth. Population growth is a necessity, an unstoppable reality, a must have. Without population growth the whole economy will go on a tailspin and the economy will fumble. So population growth must continue to grow. It is unstoppable, the fourth unstoppable growth that must not be fiddled with or be messed around.

A simpler way to look at this problem solving approach is the high prices of goods due to demand and supply. Both demand and supply affect the price and the price can be managed by fiddling with demand and or supply at the same time. But the mindset is just to tackle from only one side of the equation. How effective can this be or will it be? Or how real is the solution if one is closed to looking at the other part of the problem?

The intricacies of Indian bureaucracy

The crisis of the falling value of the rupee of India is in the front page of many papers recently. At least 20% of the value has been wiped off for those holding to the rupee currency. The second most populous country and setting it sight to overtake China as the next economic giant of Asia is now struggling with a lost of confidence in the rupee.

While the crisis is just unfolding, below is an article by Venkatesh, a Chartered Accountant that revealed the workings of the Indian bureaucracy and how money has to be paid all the way to get a project on the way. It is quite startling even to Venkatesh and the full article is worth reading by those intending to invest in India. Bid sovereign wealth funds must really be in the know of the corporate culture of India to place their multi million or billion dollar bets in the Indian economy. Lacking such knowledge and bravely punting and putting money into India is only for the brave and the knaves.
I have deleted some of the details to shorten the article. For those who want more the link is available. Happy reading.

'Indian economy comes to a fullstop

By MR Venkatesh on July 22, 2013

(Excerpted from http://www.niticentral.com/2013/07/22/indian-economy-spirals-to-a-fullstop-107779.html)

A fairly large South-Indian group with varied business interests had invited me to a strategy session to turn it around. It was the first meeting and was to be preceded by breakfast. As we waited to be served, I perused their latest balance sheet.

Noticing that it was a profitable, tax and dividend paying company, where was the question of turnaround I wondered? Nevertheless, I instantly zeroed in on the balance sheet. I observed that the company had invested approximately Rs 700 (1 crore = 10 million) crore on its subsidiaries and lent another Rs 300 crore — in the aggregate Rs 1,000 crore. Flipping across the accounts, I asked a simple question – what is the return from this investment of Rs 1,000 crore? (Amounts changed for obvious reasons.)

The CFO was silent. The executive director hummed and hawed. The body language of the rest was a dead giveaway of their uneasiness to discuss this matter further.

The junior-most amongst them blurted out, perhaps unwittingly, that it was virtually nil. His answer got a cold stare from his superiors. “Nil!” I exclaimed to the horror of my hosts. “You must be paying approximately Rs 150 crore as interest annually on this sum.” I commented, probably rubbing salt into their wounds. I went on to probe further, “Why, what happened to this money?”….

Unable to bear my repeated questioning, the CFO finally broke down. “Sir, as you are aware we are in infrastructure. That requires tremendous pay-offs to politicians and bureaucrats. We have used approximately 150 subsidiaries, some of which are foreign ones, to route these payments.”
I was stunned. My jaw dropped. “Sir, we expected you to know all these practicalities of our business. The turnaround strategy needs to factor these ground realities.” ….

The economics of kickbacks and payoffs

Instantly my thoughts raced to the Nira Radia tapes. Fifteen per cent was the kickbacks payable to the Minister concerned for approving every road contract. Add another fifteen to the bureaucracy and local politicians. Add another five to seven to bankers, lawyers, consultants and agents to procure funds. What we have is a staggering 35-40 per cent additional cost to every infrastructure project….
There is another dimension to this issue. Somewhere down the line these “costs” were funded, mostly by our banks. Corporates altered their top-line as well as bottom-line to keep their banks in good humor….

The impact of gold plating

….The net result – twenty per cent of lending by Indian Banks is stressed. Obviously, when banks end up funding pay-offs and kickbacks, this is the end result. And that is a whopping Rs 11 lakh crores – approximately $200 billion – a sum that even the banks in USA cannot afford.

Added to this is the stress on account of our external accounts. The foreign debt has risen to $390 billion. This was a mere $225 billion in 2008. What is galling is that the foreign exchange reserve has remained at a constant $300 billion during this period. Needless to emphasise, the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to foreign debt has deteriorated from 138 per cent then to less than 75 per cent now.
What is adding to the consternation is that in the short term – by March 2014 – we need to pay approximately $172 (billion) of our foreign debts. This works out to approximately 44 per cent of the external debt and a staggering 60 per cent of the total foreign exchange reserves of the country.

Tharman – A little meat and a little departure

In today’s ST front page, Tharman listed 5 priorities of govt policies that in a way are related to Hsien Loong’s NDR speech on a comprehensive health care scheme for the senior Singaporeans. Tharman filled in some meat to that general policy change and direction, and also included a few cautions and departures from the sweeping Medishield Life scheme for all, sick or unsick.

Tharman’s first priority is about targeting govt subsidies to those who need them and said that universal benefits are ‘wasteful and inequitable’. A comprehensive all encompassing healthcare benefit scheme will fit into this wasteful and inequitable definition perfectly. There is no need for further elaboration on this as the impact and consequences are simply obvious.

The second priority, to design redistribution policies to spur self reliance and individual responsibility has been the cornerstone of many govt policies. To lump every Singaporean into a healthcare scheme with no recognition of their needs and demands on the system is going to be in conflict with the concept of self reliance and individual responsibility. The reckless and irresponsible are going to pass the buck to the rest of the people to foot their bills, as simple as that. Would this be acceptable under the new scheme?

Tharman did qualify by saying that those who are in genuine need for assistance would not be left on their own. This is the big difference between humans and animals. In the animal kingdom it is survival of the fittest and the weak and sick will perish on their own steam. As a social animal, the human specie has this innate ability to want and can look after their weaker fellow beans, the old, the sick, the less able and less talented. Human beans can be caring, generous and selfless.

The third policy pointed out by Tharman is more startlingly in a way as it has been violated in many instances for vain glory and misplaced responsibility. This policy is about making ‘sure tax incentives and grants “aggressively” support and catalyse community and civic efforts, and strengthen “the values that drives us to be our brother’s keepers”’. How would spending money on foreign sports talents and paying for foreigners to study here fit into this brothers’ keepers idea? How would bringing in foreigners to replace our citizens in jobs be a good thing? We need to take care of our very own, incentivise and motivate our own to excel in all fields. The foreigners are not our responsibility and money spent on them is simply wasteful and also inequitable.

How would this policy fit into the comprehensive health care scheme with PRs and new citizens in our midst and standing to benefit wholly from public funds?

Tharman’s fourth policy is about progressive taxation, benefits and social spending. I think he must believe that GST is progressive taxation. Or would he now be more enlightened to tweak this regressive tax to tax the poor less? In this regard he hinted at the need for future tax increases to fund the growing health care needs. Here is his biggest contradiction. If the recently floated comprehensive health care scheme does take cognizance to the priorities mentioned, there should not be a need to raise taxes. Raising taxes is only necessary when the scheme is an unlimited buffet spread for all to partake with little regard to equitable distributions and prudence not to over provide with no regard to the cost involved.

Tharman’s final point is about a just and fair society, about opportunities to enjoy quality living, public spaces and our work and living environment. Would the govt be building more and smaller flats to improve the quality of living for Singaporeans, or would the dreams of the 70s and 80s when every family aspire to own a 5 rm flat or better, including private properties be reignited? Can Singaporeans relive this dream?

With the freeing of the two pieces of land in Paya Lebar and Tanjong Pagar, the govt is given a chance to really redevelop and design quality housing for the people and not more mickey mouse pigeon holes in close proximity. A new concept of living with bigger homes and space could be the future, if only the wet dream of 6.9m does not become a reality. We have more space and create even more space for everyone here, and not creating more space to squeeze in more migrants to fill up every inch of space created. Can there also be a departure from the mindset of more population for more economic growth and the deception that small and little space are good quality living, good for bringing up children?

Yes, we have the money to build our dreams. And our dreams must be better and bigger space and more amenities for the people, not more squeeze and lesser space to live like mice and competing for space and air. There is no need to drive down a road to hell when we can go to paradise. But as they say, the road to heaven is wide open but few takers, but the road to hell is narrow and dangerous and crowded like hell.

How would these five policies mentioned by Tharman be worked around the Medishield Life for all?

Overloading is dangerous and illegal

Our private cars have a legal limit on the number of passengers it can seat. Going above the approved number is illegal. The school buses or private buses, tour coaches, pickups and commercial vehicles too have a legal limit as well. And there is a very good reason for it other than graciousness. It is safety.
 
Often there were reports of ferries or boats sinking because of overloading. Our lorries and trucks also have loading limits and speed limits for safety reasons as well. Funny thing, why are public transport buses and MRT trains not having limits on the number of people they can carry on each bus or train carriage? Why are they allowed to squeeze as many passengers as they like into the cabins? And they have been suggestions to hire pushers to push more people into trains like it is the right thing to do.
 
Would overloading of public buses and trains affect the safety of the passengers? No? Not sure? What do you think?

Managing the people’s life savings

HDB prices are affordable based how the ability of the buyers to pay. Now the affordability is a couple’s monthly CPF contributions for the next 25 years. This means that whatever that goes into the CPF will go out the other way, to pay for the affordable HDB flat. The couple would likely to start to save a little 5 or 10 years after buying a flat when their incomes rise. How much savings could that be to go into their retirement account?
 
Then there is the Medisave Accounts to fill up and at current rate, more than $100k will have to be set aside as untouchable in the Medisave Minimum Sum Account. Technically there could be nothing left to be set aside for the Retirement account at least after the flat is fully paid in 25 years time.
By the age of 55 or 65 the CPF Life Scheme will kick in and whatever money left in the CPF would be compulsory acquired to pay for their retirement annuities. Luckily the Medisave Account is still untouched by any compulsory scheme, but not for long. The money in the Medisave Account will be compulsorily acquired too to pay for Medishield Life once the scheme is finalized.
The net effect of the two compulsory schemes means that the Govt has decided for you how your money must be spent. In the CPF Life which is an annuity scheme, there is still hope of getting something back if one lives long enough.
 
In the case of Medishield Life, it is paying and nothing is coming back except when one needs hospitalization or is seriously ill and provided the illness is covered by the scheme. Read the fine prints and the exclusion clauses carefully.
 
The Govt effectively has a hold on the CPF savings of its citizens through a monopoly public housing scheme that will feed on the savings of its citizens for the first 25 years and a CPF Life for the next 30 plus years. As for the Medishield Life, this is still work in progress and the payment into this scheme could come very early, maybe from the day one starts working and contributing to the CPF.
 
The best part, the Govt can decide as and when how much to raise the premiums and compel the people to pay. There is no opting out. Resistance is futile. You earn and save and the Govt will be the recipients in a way, helping you to spend your savings.
Your money is not your money anymore. The Govt knows how much you have and can afford to pay and the three items will effectively absorb practically every cent there is available or affordable with hardly anything left. This is a very efficient system to manage the people’s income/savings by the Govt, with compulsion, and the people are literally left with no choice of their own.
 
The Govt is caring for the people, to their last day and managing their last cent without having to ask the people for their consent. Our CPF savings are now absolutely safe with the Govt.

And one good thing, there would not be any more scheme to manage your CPF savings after this.There is nothing left to be managed anymore.