A Sino Japanese war inevitable

The Abe-Aso Administration, filled with a slate of ministers that are mainly militant in thinking, will continue to push for the remilitarization of Japan and would adopt a military approach in its relations with its neighbours. These are men and women that would want to relive the glory of their imperial past and a martial Japan, willing to go to war if necessary. The belligerent rhetoric and the aggressive diplomacy to drum up support against China, to cling on to its war loots, the islands of Diaoyu and Dokto and an intransigent policy will set Japan on a war path with China and the Koreans.

War between Japan and China is only a matter of when and how. China will not allow Japan to keep Diaoyu Islands and Japan is adamant not to return them to China. And Japan has been upping the ante, increasing air and sea interceptions of Chinese air and naval vassals, increasing military spending and attempting to forge a military alliance with Russia, Mongolia, India and Indonesia to prepare for a war with China. And there are the every ready USA, Vietnam and the Philippines, already converted and ready to take the Japanese side.

When could actually mean imminent, as any miscalculation or the recklessness of a naval or air personnel, could lead to a shoot out any moment. What is holding back the parties is the nature of this war. Could it be a limited conflict between Japan and China or would it lead to the involvement of the USA and its allies? A two party warfare has more chances of not escalating the war to a regional or world war, with both countries giving the other all they had, including aerial bombings of the other country and an invasion by ground troops. Still it is a testy situation as the outside parties are very tempted to get involved directly or indirectly.

An involvement of the Americans would mean that the conflict will be totally out of control and it will be a world war, a nuclear war even possible. Once the two nuclear powers locked horns, what is there to hold them back with both parties wanting to secure a victory? Defeat in a conventional war between the US and China is not acceptable to either party and it will simply escalate to a level beyond anyone’s imagination. All the allies of both sides will be in battle. The outcome is simply unthinkable.

Can a conflict between Japan and China be fought just between the two combatant countries? The balance of power will see Japan being decimated and overrun by China with much certainty. Such an end result is unacceptable to the Americans. Both China and the US know the outcome and would probably have made all the calculations and whatever needed to be done if they allow this war to go on in the first place.

To allow a war between China and Japan to flare up, both China and the USA must have come to an agreement, including the Russians, to accept the outcome without going one step further, a nuclear holocaust involving all the nuclear powers. Given such considerations, can a war really kick off between Japan and China? Are the Japanese that crazy to think they could walk away as victors?

What is in the minds of Abe and his hawkish ministers to want to start a war with China? Unless they believe that they could defeat China and suffer acceptable destruction and casualties. They cannot win a war with China without involving the Americans.

The remilitarization of Japan is a certainty guaranteed by the Americans. It was the Americans that imposed a pacifist constitution on Japan, making it illegal to do so. In all counts, Japan has rearmed and has a military force bigger than any countries in Asia except China and India and perhaps North Korea. And now the Americans are saying go ahead, they are going to keep mum about the pacifist constitution. And America will support Japan’s military adventure against China.

The war is coming soon.

CPF minumum sum raised again, to $148,000!

Yahoo! News Singapore, 7 May 2013

From July 1 this year, CPF members who turn 55 between 1 July 2013 and 30 June 2014 will need to set aside a minimum sum of S$148,000 in their Retirement Account.

The minimum sum for those who turned 55 last year was S$139,000.

In a statement on Tuesday, the CPF board announced the Medisave minimum sum for those turning 55 and above will also be raised from S$38,500 to S$40,500. This is the amount that a person needs to set aside in his old age for his own or his dependants’ healthcare expenses and basic MediShield and ElderShield premiums.

Can this keep on going without the consent of the people, the owners of the money? How many people have died after saving for a life time without the luxury of enjoying a little of their savings? How many people are still struggling for a living when they have so much money in their CPF? How many people would like to buy themselves a decent meal, a little present for themselves or for their loved ones but cannot do so because so much of their money are retained by the Government against their will, without their consent? Is this morally right a thing to do?

Whose money is that? Who has the audacity to take the people’s money away from them claiming that it is for their own good?

CPF is our money, not your grandfather’s money!

The young bailing out the old

With the inflation game to stimulate growth and provide liquidity, the housing Ponzi Scheme will get an added boost and prices will spiral even higher over time. The fact that a $20k HDB flat can fetch $400k or more is already a norm, even when the remaining lease is getting shorter and shorter. And when new buyers got to pay for higher and higher prices, any fall in housing prices is going to hurt the these buyers. And in order to protect the buyers, the late buyers and later buyers would have to bail them out.

The young of today will have to bail out the buyers of yesterday. And the buyers of tomorrow will have to bail out the buyers of today. The ultimate buyers will have to pay the ultimate price for their purchases.

In between, those who are able to jump out of the scheme will benefit from this Ponzi when the prices are artificially kept to go one way, up up and away. And the people benefitting from this will be the foreigners who come and go, buy and cash out. A guaranteed investment promising guaranteed great returns! It cannot go wrong. The FTs know the game plan and they have the options. They can game the Ponzi and laugh all the way to the bank.

And who are the suckers left to buy the ever higher priced flats but those that have no where to go, ie the Singaporeans. Like it or not, they will have to buy the flats no matter how expensive they are. They cannot pitch tent at the beaches or in the parks.

These captive buyers in a market that is carefully crafted to move up, will end up the biggest suckers. The current prices of HDB flats are cheap, really. If no serious effort is taken to prick the bubble, which would hurt mort people, the prices can only go higher and higher. Don’t ask me who created this problem. Don’t tell me they did not know.

Who is going to save the young from this enforced ransom of their lives, to bail out the early buyers, speculators and property developers? It is highly irresponsible to make the young to be the victims of the Ponzi Scheme. It is outrageous!

New banking laws to rein in playing with dirty money in the banking industry

Jul 1 when the new banking rules kick in, banks handling dubious money will have to face hefty fines, criminal charges and licence gantong. And this is what one European banker said, ‘The good old times in Singapore are over…We don’t need dirty money anymore.’

What this banker knows and is not telling is that the banks are playing with dirty money all the while. Unbelieveable. Isn’t it legal, criminal? With so many stringent controls and all the laws against money laundering and fraudulent practices, dirty money seems to be the main driver of the banking industry. How many banks and bankers are in it with eyes wide open? No wonder there are so many banks here and so many bankers. And this is only the tip of the iceberg. The recent report on the arbitrary fixing of the rupiah rate by bank traders, the continuation of selling toxic products in various forms, derivatives that are no different from betting chips, what else is new?

The clamp down, if real, may see the moving out of some dubious banks to Virgin Island or some new havens for money laundering and illegal banking activities. What is intolerable is to know that this is common knowledge and common practice in the banking industry, and quite prevalent here.

I am seeing a lot of halos hovering around innocent bankers’ heads.

So what is happening?

Malaysia – What it could have been

If Anwar was not ousted and thrown into jail by Mahathir, this GE would be Anwar’s third term in office as the PM of Malaysia. Or Anwar could step down and this would be Najib’s first term. Badawi would not have been the PM and Khairy would have been Anwar’s son in law.

The next ‘what it could have been’ is akan datang. Najib could be forced to step down. And things would get a bit messy if the future next PM is meant to be Mukhriz. If Mahathir wants to slate him in as the PM, it would be one after whoever is to succeed Najib after he steps down. The whole game plan would be built around Mukhriz. If he is to be the PM, he must be the next Dep PM. This would mean either he is deputy to Muhyiddin, thus bypassing Hishammuddin and Khairy, a very tough act to do. Hishammuddin is not going to make way and he has strong grassroot support to back him for the post.

The possibility of PM Muhyiddin and Dep PM Hishammuddin would mean Mukhriz would have to mark time as the Education Minister. Khairy can be forgotten with Badawi not in the PM seat and when Mahathir is calling the shot. But this scenario is still not good enough for Mukhriz as it could be another 20 years if both Muhyiddin and Hishammuddin would to remain for two terms.

A more likely outcome would be to engineer the removal of either Muhyiddin or Hishammuddin to go with Najib. That would put the Dep PM slot open for Mukhriz and he could be nicely placed to take over after whoever replaces Najib.

What would have been if Najib is removed, the possibility is getting clearer by the day and now it is up to Najib and Mrs Najib to hold on to the fort and defend the Mahathir onslaught to replace him. This would demand the skill of the greatest political strategist or genius to walk this tightrope and stay on course.

What could have been or would have been, who would be the PM this time next year, is being shaped today.