More of the same for Hougang for another 4 years

Desmond Choo has improved his score from 35% to 38% in the by election. His strategy is working, albeit a bit slower than expected. But it is testimony that the same strategy will work and he will gain more votes in the next election.

And what would be in store for Hougang in the next 4 years prior to the GE? There will be two MPs, an official and an unofficial MP serving them. The latter would definitely work harder to want to win more voters to his side.

There will also be more of the same, more porridges will be served, hearing aids and maybe something better. And as for upgradings and queues for more govt goodies, subsidies and handouts, it will be business as usual.

Hougang cannot expect many changes given the constraints of the WP’s party and its budget. But they will get by and move on. Any change coming to Hougang will be in the next GE, when they vote in Desmond Choo, or when there is a regime change with the WP forming the govt.

For the time being, the PAP will live by its slogan ‘Always here for you’. It is so unfair that Hougang is having the service of two MPs. The only irony is that it is still the step son and will be kind of a ‘run down’.  People may ask, how can that be, with two MPs and one always there for them. Hougang should be the best of all the constituencies.

Oops, forgot to mention that Png Eng Huat of the WP has been elected as the new MP of Hougang with 62% majority. And the Hougangkia have chosen to be daft again.

The hard truth

This world is unfair. So accept it. There will be those who are able and become extremely rich. And there will be those who are unable and become extremely poor. The income gap is unavoidable. High property price is unavoidable. High COE price is also unavoidable.

Actually I am not against an unfair world with an unfair system, as long as I am enjoying the unfairness and benefitting from it. Anyone who is benefitting from an unfair system has no reason to complain. They should actually shut up and pretend that nothing happens. Or better, just convince the losers that life is good and everything is affordable. Like $1000 pm income can afford a 4 rm flat or this is the best place for poor people.

This is a natural truth, a hard truth. Another hard truth is that those who are not receiving their fair share of the unfair system should kpkb. This is also natural. 

The existence of both groups is like the thesis, anti thesis and synthesis of dialectical materialism. The wider the income gap, the quicker it reaches the climax, the greater will be the anti thesis forces to forge a new synthesis. This is also a natural hard truth. But those beneficiaries of such inequality would not or could not see this, refuse to see it or try to prolong this state of affair for as long as they could, and be on the right side of the inequality.

Now you know why winners have no issue with inequality but losers have. The tug and pull is an ongoing process. It is normal that the winners will have all the resources to keep the status quo for their benefits. No need to apologise for it. It is just a hard truth and is unfair. So what? So what can the losers do about it? Only winners talk about hard truth as a reality in their comfort zone and that losers must accept it as the status quo and be grateful that it is not worst.

Hougang’s political demography

In the last election, WP won 65% of popular votes in Hougang leaving PAP’s Desmond Choo with only 35%. This may look innocuous enough but on careful scrutinizing, it is actually a very tight situation for the PAP.

The general distribution of voters between the PAP and opposition is normally a 30% hard core supporters for each side and leaving the balance 40% as the fence sitters or swing votes. Applying this general pattern, PAP was only able to win 5% of the 40% swing votes. In this scenario the optimists in PAP camp would think there is room for improvement, to move the 5% a few notches up.

On the other hand, the WP can at most win the 5% from PAP and stripping PAP to the skin of its teeth. This will be the worst case scenario this weekend for the PAP. Anything less is unthinkable and will send a signal that it is all over for the PAP.

Another probable distribution in the case of Hougang, which is an unusual constituency, is that WP has a hardcore support of 45% against a PAP’s 35%, leaving a balance of 20% swing votes. If this is the case, in the last election PAP was only able to hold on to its hard core supporters and WP had a clean sweep of the swing voters. All the lose votes went to WP. This means that PAP was not making any headway with the fence sitters at all.

And the outcome of this by election could see PAP at 35% again or winning some of the swing votes from the WP. It would need to win 15% of the 20% fence sitters to have a chance of winning Hougang. Hougang is likely to be retained as WP needs only 6% from the swing voters to retain the seat. For WP to take anything less than 5% from the swing voters is likely to be remote.

My assessment is that WP should retain the seat of Hougang but will find it very difficult to better the result of the GE as that would mean eating into the hard core supporters of the PAP camp. Desmond is likely to keep his 35% with a +/- 3% either way.

Horror! China’s economy slowing down

The World Bank has issued a warning to stupid Asian countries that China’s economy is slowing down. What it is saying is that these economies would be dragged down because China’s economy is going down. China is going to be in deep trouble and will hurt other Asian economies as well.

Now, would the shitty economies that are going bankrupt one by one in Europe be hurting the Asian countries? Definitely not. Even when the US barely achieved a 1-2% growth would not hurt the Asian economies.

Okay, China’s is going to have a hard landing as they prayed. They have been praying and hoping that China’s economy will collapse and their wish is coming true. How hard is this hard landing, and how bad is the slow down? The official report of the World Bank cuts China’s growth from 8.4% to 8.2%! Oh my God, what a pathetic figure of growth numbers. Only 8.2% growth! This is disastrous. What a badly managed economy, such miserable growth.

Now which country in the world is going to chalk more than a 5% growth? Any country out there? You mean there is no other country out there that can achieve a 5% growth rate and China’s 8.2% growth is so bad that the World Bank needs to issue a warning?

What kind of joke is this? Any country that can attain a 4 or 5% growth number will likely be trumpeting to the world on how well it has performed. 8.2% is not good enough, is bad? Yawn.

A battle for the hearts

I was watching the news last night, trying to catch a glimpse of Png Eng Huat on TV. The coverage of Desmond Choo and the PAP was quite extensive, running into minutes. Desmond got the most air time, speaking at the podium. So I waited to see how much time was given to Png Eng Huat. All I saw was Sylvia Lim, Chen Show Mao and Pritam Singh. Png Eng Huat was not featured at all. Oh I got a glimpse of him in his walkabout, maybe 2 sec.

After a couple of days of coverage mainly on PAP candidate, finally we are seeing some balance in coverage for the two candidates and parties today. Is this a result of the criticism in cyberspace that it was a one sided reporting and a no choice situation to show some fairness in reporting? The perception and comments in cyberspace were that the reporting was obviously a one sided affair.

And what about the campaign tactics itself? The ruling party could have gone on to tell the voters of what they could do for them, on how good they are in meeting the aspirations of the Hougang people. But the key issue was to run down Png Eng Huat, calling him dishonest, questioning his integrity with a sneaky copy of the minutes of WP CEC meeting which was confidential and should not be in the hands of outsiders. The WP cannot use the OSA to arrest anyone, and that sneaky act was used repeatedly everyday to run down the WP candidate.

How this sneaky copy of minutes got into the hands of the PAP is definitely not the fault of the PAP. It must be from someone untraceable, anonymous. Maybe some unhappy WP CEC member. Definitely not a PAP supporter. The people waving this piece of minutes are definitely honourable people and would not stoop to this kind of nefarious activity to get hold of the minutes of a confidential meeting. Waving them in public is also nothing to be ashamed of.

We are at the end of the campaigning. Who will win the hearts of the people, not only the people of Hougang? Every Singaporean interested is watching the whole show and taking notes of how the game was played, who is honourable, who is dishonest, who is playing fair, who is cheating all the way. And they will make their own judgement for this by election and subsequent elections to come.

The verdict will be out in a couple of days. Who have won the hearts of daft Sinkies? Who have taken the Sinkies for granted?