The last nail going in

We used to have a healthy and vibrant stock market and a finance industry supporting several thousands of professionals and supporting staff. The market used to be plodding along happily in its own steam with steady growth and an envious reputation of a successfully run system. This was despite the fact that it was a very small market with relatively small number of stocks and small number of investors.

There were some unique features in the system that allowed the stock market to function the way it was, punching above its weight like they used to say. The market thrived on volumes and demands over supplies. Where were the volumes and demands coming from in a small city state? There were two unique features that made this possible, remisiers and contra trade. The former took on the role of ‘ah long’, taking high risk, to extend credit facilities to their clients which no banks would want to do or allowed to do, too risky and without collateral. But it worked most of the time, based on trust and knowledge of the client’s ability to pay for losses. This allowed the clients to trade many times more than they were able to without being limited by upfront collaterals or cash deposits. It worked. The market was alive.

Contra trading also facilitates liquidity in the market. Clients could take positions and settle the differences when they squared off their positions. It used to be more than 14 days, and that gave the clients more room to manouvre. The longer the exposure, the greater would be the risk, but also more chances of market changing positions. In a way contra trading played the same part as remisiers in allowing clients to take bigger and more positions than they were able to if trading is restricted to money upfront. For a small pool of investors in a small city state, contra trading allowed the trading volume to appear tens or hundreds time larger.

Between the credit lending role of remisiers and contra trading, the market was able to trade with much more volumes than it could otherwise do. Doing away with remisiers and contra trading would be like knocking in the last nail to send the stock market into the incinerator.

No, apparently the smart alecs don’t think so. They believed that there is no need for remisiers and trading could be done online by computers. The shallowness of such stupidity has proven itself, and online trading is still standing on the high pedestal as a white elephant, too high cost to operate and for too little return. And there were all the other factors that made online trading ineffective and unworkable as a business model. It is history. It is also a reminder of where the market will head if people with little knowledge of how the market works make the decision. And there will be people who know but kept quiet, follow orders as long as they are paid, and do the master’s will.

The next attempt is to do away with contra trading. It is too risky, reduce the duration of exposure. Traders still have 5 trading days to square their positions. And there is no collateral, too risky. There were bad cases of bad debts. This too must be taken care of. Margin trading could be a solution. Better to do away with the remisiers altogether.

In all businesses, there were risks involved and bad debts could be incurred. So far, all the bad debts were manageable and were part and parcel of the business. The bad debts were not in the proportions of hundreds of millions, billions or tens of billions like the losses of well managed funds and banks. If bad debt is such a serious concern, all the big funds and banks should be closed down or not be allowed to take those risks. How come their colossal losses were acceptable as part and parcel of risk takings and taken in their strides as clever investment strategies but losses of small investors were unbearable? How come the few millions of losses by a few individuals in an industry of a few hundred thousand players were seen as so fearsome to live with?

There were rumours that contra trading would be replaced by CFD or contract for difference. What’s the difference between CFD and contra trading? CFD is claimed to be much better than contra trading. It allows the traders to hold their position longer, several weeks even if they wanted to. Shit, contra trading used to be like that but the length of holding to long positions were curtailed, deemed as too risky. In CFD, holding long and longer position is a plus point. CFD also can short positions. Now, why were short positions not allowed in contra trading? Isn’t this as good as saying having free sex is bad but going to prostitute is okay, both offering the same thing but the latter got to pay more?

What’s the difference between CFD and contra trading? Isn’t it contra trading in another name, another form? Oh it is not called contra trading. It is called Contract For Difference. Brilliant eh? The industry is being prepared to switch from free sex to having sex with prostitutes as a better option.

When this happens, the contra players would vanish. The remisiers too would vanish. And they expect the market to continue to thrive, bustling with billions of trades done by the computers. And the funds would still be churning the market without any suckers to pay for their expenses and profits. The funds would be happily chucking along in a stock market with practically no investors and no money to make, just to make the stock market look good for the city state.

Just wait for the smart alecs to knock this last nail in and everyone in the industry can go away. The fictitious trading volumes will still be there, an envy of all the outdated stock markets who can never dream of such volumes. But their phones in the brokerages will be ringing. The brokerages here will be as quiet as a cemetery, if any is still left standing.

Hougang is like part of a bigger scheme of things

Hougang is like part of a bigger scheme of things


Under normal circumstances this could still be the honeymoon period for the elected ruling party to ferment whatever it wants to do. The next GE is another four years away. This is the period for more increases in everything and whatever unpleasant policies, now is the time to throw them to the people. There will be some pain and unhappiness, but the people will get used to it, get over it over time. Then comes the last chapter, the pre election phase when the wounds are healed and little goodies would do the trick to prepare the electorate for more good years.

The Hougang by election must have come at an inopportune time. With this in the air, with the people getting political again and being agitated by all kinds of issues, and introducing or implementing tough policies would give the opposition a good platform to shout them down. Not doing so would have to delay it further down the road and may be too close to the next GE.

Whichever way, the temper of the people would not be given a chance to take a break. The temperature will rise again as in all elections. And expectedly, the opposition would rub the salt in wherever there is an open wound, or would open up old wounds. And it is defending time. The full backs and the goal keepers would not be able to rest or sleep soundly. Where are the goal keepers?

The other important development coming out from Hougang is the closing ranks of all the opposition parties. This is one of the rare instances that the oppositions are coming together to fight a common enemy. It would be interesting to see who would be speaking in the WP rallies. It would also be an opportunity for the opposition parties to rally together, to seek common grounds and build a closer rapport and understanding before the next GE. Hougang could pave the way for a better understanding among the opposition parties, and more give and take later on, and who knows, a united front that they have yet to forge after so many years.

Hougang could also be a testing time for people forced to reveal themselves to do damage to the WP’s cause. Many believe that there are plenty of moles in hiding in the opposition parties. It is a time to see the real stuff, the real enemies within, the desperadoes. But they are unlikely to cause a dent on the WP’s armour.

The PAP will, for the first time, be facing the opposition parties as a single bloc, speaking in unison. No more divide and rule, pulling strings here and there for the opposition parties to dance and bicker at each other. Maybe it is too premature to talk about this. It would be an interesting battle with more actors playing more important roles on both sides. All the big guns from both camps would be firing at the same time. A Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture in the air.

Sajeev Kamalasanan’s resignation from WP

A candidate in the last GE resigned from the Worker’s Party and made an allegation that it is ‘discriminating against Indians’ according to his press statement. How bad the timing is in view of the by election? At this point in time, every factor and matter counts to both parties and candidates in the election. To have a resignation of a key member is bad enough. To be accused of being racist may cause a lot of votes for the WP, true or otherwise. Some voters would be easily swayed by such a statement.

WP must count it as bad luck to have this incident splashing across the news everywhere. I am sure Sajeev’s resignation was not intended to do any harm to the WP. It just happened and no need to read too much into it. Still the WP would have some damage control to do.

Funny, it seems that such unpleasant things often happened to the opposition parties during a run up to an election. I hope Sajeev and the WP do not allow this matter to distract the main issues in the by election and the voters could put this aside for the moment. Alas, knowing how light the ears of the masses are, one goal has gone in.

Money, power politics and Wall Street

There is a four part documentary on the aftermath of the subprime crisis cum world financial crisis created by Wall Street in 2008. The documentary is quite lengthy and very detail in the key players involved in the crisis and the intricate handling and exposure of the toxic waste created by the brightest American financial minds, which happened to be kids really. The derivatives structured by these kids were meant to lower the risk of exposure by the banks to high risk subprime loans. But it multiplied and morphed into many other things and became a bigger risk that almost toppled the whole financial system of the world.

This documentary (http://video.pbs.org/video/2229573868/) is a must view for all regulators and govt officials meddling with their financial systems as well as finance professionals. The lessons to be learnt are many and they were obvious and avoidable but were pooh poohed away by the muscles of financial institutions and the corruption of the members of the Congress. They allowed the toxic waste to go into the system and grow without control, infecting not only Wall Street but also Main Street of America.

Have they learnt anything? With the recent loss of US$2b by JP Morgan Chase, does it tell anything? With the glorification of big earnings by the banks and hedge funds and paying themselves crazy again, do they say anything. As far as Wall Street is concerned, everything is back to normal, before crisis time, and all system is on a roll, just like the good old time. The same flawed and obscene financial system did not change a bit. Banks are still taking high risk is in derivative and proprietary tradings to make quick and easy money to pay themselves millions and billions all over again. Conservative bank practices are obsolete.

The first obvious fault of the subprime crisis was the culture of greed which led the greedy bankers to go after quick money and dumping morality and prudence in the back seat. The banks and hedge funds operators were just gambling, playing with other people’s money for quick and huge returns. And if anything wrong, like JP Morgan Chase, wait for the Fed to bail them out with the taxpayers money. They made the Fed to close both eyes, arguing that they need more freedom to execute their business. There is no need for disclosure. Deregulation and darkness fell on Wall Street. Transparency of deals by the banks and hedge funds were ignored for the bankers to hide whatever they were doing. They cooked the books, devised toxic products, engaged in proprietary tradings against their clients, all under the cover of deregulation or no regulations. They could commit mass murder in a way without anyone knowing, without transparency and accountability. All losses were reported as profits only to justify paying themselves crazily.

Without transparency, without regulations, without accountability, no one was wiser as to what was going on. The bankers kept chalking up glorious P&L, claiming billions of profits when the truth was that they were under billions of debt in taking up toxic waste and trading losses. As long as they could hide them under ingenious accounting, it was as good as sweeping everything under the carpet. And they partied and partied with ill gotten gains and kicking the problematic ball further down the road.

The simple age old wisdom that anything that cannot be told must be told as what cannot be told is simply dangerous was forgotten. That was why it could not see light and must be kept hidden. And Wall Street and the banks got away with it by bribing Congress to let them play bandits and robbers.

They even designed unfair and obscene trading systems using computers to trade against innocent small investors and no one will stand up to say it is wrong, it is unfair practice, it is cheating. And they even got their flawed and corrupted gaming system sold to the rest of the world as the system of the future, with high speed trading, derivatives and deregulation, high liquidity, high volume, high buzz and a quicker bust. They have gained access to many countries, and the stock markets are still ticking only superficially, kept alive by drips, when they are actually in the intensive ward, or nearly there.

Now the Americans are banging on the doors in Beijing to want to introduce such atrocious system to create havoc to the Chinese stock market and financial system. Would the Chinese be smart enough to say no and slam the door at the American face? They would need to seek wise counsel from the Hongkong Exchange to have a better feel of the evil in the system and the damage it is causing to the Hongkong market. There is a Chinese saying, ‘lai ze bu san, san ze bu lai.’ Pardon my translation, it basically says that those who dare to come are not easy to deal with or with ill intent. Ask a simple question, why are the Americans so forceful and persistent in wanting to break into the Chinese financial system? To do charity and bring money to the Chinese or to go in and scope everything there is in there? They have done severe damage to the Hongkong and Singapore financial market except that no one dares to admit it. The dead body is getting stiffer by the days and soon it would not be able to move completely.

Mortis rigor is only a short while away. The Chinese govt and other Asian regulators should view this documentary carefully and know what they are being led into and the dangers ahead. Would China be the last sucker to fall into the trap and become another victim of toxic waste?

Would there be any changes after this latest JP Morgan Chase failure? Some were calling for tighter regulations, invoking the Volcker’s Rule to prevent banks from proprietary trading and taking high risk. The real fault lies in the system, it is systemic, where the administrators and regulators colluded, gave their silent consent to daylight robbery. They could not see anything wrong with the system but were very clever in finding faults with the little guys. Until some of the administrators and regulators are put behind bars for being accomplices to the unfair trading practices in the financial markets, nothing will work. Never has the financial market been so deregulated, when unfair trading practices like high speed computer tradings, proprietary trading by banks against their clients, that cheating the small investors is fair game. And because New York sets the rule, the rest of the unthinking world markets just followed blindly. Were they dull or were they just having a good time with the gravy train?

Hopefully New York will set the precedence and prosecute the whole management team of NYSE for mismanagement and for allowing fraudulent trading practices into the system. Until then, the financial system and stock markets are only waiting to implode.

Buying American snake oil

Friday, May 11, 2012


Risky Systems, Dire Consequences...

Yesterday night a somber CEO had to announce publicly that his bank had lost U$2B dollars in set of complex synthetic derivatives trade,



This CEO is no ordinary CEO but the king of Wall Street, Jamie Dimon, one of the most astute bankers around. The bank went through the financial crisis unscathed but suffered heavy losses last week when a unit of the bank took on complex derivative positions that resulted in unexpected losses:



“This portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the firm previously believed,” - Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan.[Link[



If Jamie Dimon and his bank can't figure the risk they were taking, how will the rest of us ever fully appreciate the risks we are exposed to? ….



The above is written by Lucky Tan in his Diary of a Singaporean Mind blog. It tells a lot about the kind of snake oil being introduced into the financial markets around the world and how the world blindly bought what the Americans sold. Singapore is one of them. China must resist all it can from being duped by the Americans. It is just not worth whatever returns there is. It can ruin financial institutions and the whole stock market. Only duds who think they know best or are gullible enough to believe the American’s sales pitch will go in with eyes wide shut.