11/29/2011

Kishore Mahbubani – top 100 thinkers

Kishore has been listed as one of the world’s top 100 thinkers by a US based Foreign Policy magazine. It is a great honour to be there among the Europeans in an European centric magazine that only understands western language and thoughts.

Who is this guy? He is not angmoh. He is the Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He got to thank the school for not replacing him with an angmoh to give the school greater credibility and be more believeable in the western intellectual circuit. Think of it, it is one of the rare corners of Singapore where the top dog is a Singaporean. For this reason alone, it is worthy to keep this School relevant as a pride of the country, that a Singaporean is found good enough to head the school.

I am not sure how long before the CEOs of the 3 local universities be headed by foreigners as obviously there are just not enough local talents of international stature to raise the profiles and rankings of these world class universities. Having foreigners to front these universities, like many of the Singapore institutions, is a good thing as they will spread the news of Singapore and how great this island is. Their presence will put the universities connected to the best universities of the West.

Then again, if we do not allow out Singaporeans a chance to take on high profile positions, how would they gain recognition by the international community? How would someone like Kishore be recognized if he ended up just another professor in the School of Lee Kuan Yew or any local universities?

Our angmoh is good mentality is a self debasing policy. If we keep giving the plump jobs to foreigners, our local talents will forever have their heads under water, to be another statistics and nothing more. We need to give more chances to the local talents and thinkers to be in the limelight, to be seen and heard, to be recognized.

Good that we have someone like Kishore. But he could be the last, just like we have a Lee Kuan Yew, and he will be the last titan this little island ever produced.

11/28/2011

When the crunch comes

Seah Chiang Nee wrote the above article in his Littlespeck blog. He is reading the warnings by the political leaders of an impending recession coming Singapore’s way and how it will impact the people.

The worst hit will be the PMETs, especially those with a million dollar or half a million dollar mortgage. What will they do if one of the paymasters got retrenched?

Don’t forget that there are many who have several hundred thousand dollar mortgages in HDB flats. There are many Singaporeans in this category which includes many PRs as well. When the crunch comes, when they lose their jobs, the 30 year mortgage will not go away. They all depend solely on their monthly incomes to service the debt.

I reckon this time the impact will be much greater as the outstanding housing loan sizes are much bigger, all expecting a 30 year free ride without having to worry about any financial crisis.

Just a few months back, it was all sunny skies and full of optimism. Dark clouds are forming overnight.

Be frightened, be very frightened.

The new story

I wonder if any of you noticed the theme in the media with regards to housing. As I scanned through the articles over the last few weeks, there is a new song being sung almost daily. Small is good. Small flats are good. Small flats do not compromise on the quality of life. There are many beautiful parks outside that the people can go to for the space they want. Small flats are ideal for smaller households.

Small is the way to go. And we have a very long way to catch up with Tokyo and Hongkong, to go smaller. It is not only a trend. Our population is growing and we need to keep housing small to make way for more people, for economic growth and better quality living.

PAP Convention

Caught some reporting on the PAP Convention and Hsien Loong’s speech over the news last night. The party has done quite a bit of work in assessing the last GE and what needs to be done to win the next GE. And they are confident that they are on the right track with all the mistakes figured out and the appropriate remedial actions will be put in place. And though the party acknowledged that the next GE will see fiercer competition, and clean sweep is not that easy anymore, they are quietly confident of taking back Aljunied.

My personal view is that they are in for a rude awakening in the next GE. The ground has shifted. More and better candidates will be moving to the alternative party camps as wearing white and being invited for tea is no longer a guarantee for a safe passage to Parliament.

What about govt policies and the bread and butter issues, unemployment, housing, foreign talent, transportation etc that the people felt aggrieved about? Would there be any real changes that will win back the support of the people?

The party still believes that their policies are good for the people and supported by the people. And very likely there will be more cooked policies for discussion in Parliament, though Inderjit was advocating for more half cooked policies to be better discussed before they are cooked.

I think this is the main area that the party is going to lose more grounds as it marches towards 2016. The attitude and mentality and the logic of past policies do not seem to change. Everything is still as per normal. The rapid ramming up of public housing is only treating a superficial wound when the cancer is still growing untreated. So are the high property prices, the high population and congestion issues, and the presence of great numbers of foreigners that the govt sees as the cure all for economic growth but irks the people in general.

As long as the govt thinks it knows best and what is good for the people, it will continue to push through its bestest policies and distance itself from the people who do not agree with them. They believe that the only problem is communication with the people. That is their only fault. If they can communicate well, there is no policy problems.

How could the party with the bestest talents accept that their bestest policies have to change to appease the not so talented views of the people? This is a tough one.

Unless the party is willing to compromise its bestest policies, undermine its bestest talents effort and say, ok, the daft Singaporeans need to be listened to and their less talented views and wishes be accommodated, there will always be a conflict and constant tension between what the party wants and what the people want. Explaining to the daft Singaporeans is easy, especially with clever arguments and statistics. Would the people buy? How many ministers would be able to do the explaining and be able to win the hearts and minds of the people?

Caving in to the daft Singaporeans is never a thing that the party will give way. It is the core value of the party, they will continue to push their cooked policies through, like deaf frogs.

This is the strongest virtue of the party, to do what it thinks is best, to implement tough policies for the good of the people. The question is whether the people think so and whether the policies are really good for the people. The servants will judge the masters or the masters judge the servants? Who will have the final say?

11/27/2011

A New World Order

The recent appearance of Obama in the Asean Summit in Bali and his pronouncement of a new strategy for American dominance in the Asia Pacific Region is a reminder that the Americans have not accepted the geopolitical changes in the 21st Century. The US is still living in the era of post WW2 when everything is about American supremacy, America Number One, and US foreign policies is all about power, military superiority, confrontation, subversion, military intervention, military alliances and war to settle cross national disputes. The US and its empire, American hegemony for the last 60 odd years, are gradually being eroded by the primacy of economic growth instead of military power.

For the last few decades, American continues on its path of being the Number One military super power and spent most of its valuable financial resources to maintain that position while China on the other hand devotes its main effort in economic development and growth. The presumed power today of China being a super power is more economic than military. China has not engaged in any major warfare since the Korean War. The Americans on the other hand have been in continuous warfare ever since. It is still engaged in several wars, to uphold its image as the Number One military power, unchallenged.

The preoccupation with its world dominance and empire is best seen in its adversarial policies of building military alliances, intervention, wars and enforcing sanctions or coercions in all corners of the globe against any country that does not toe the line. From the encirclement of the Soviet bloc of countries it is now embarking on a new phase of containment of China, which is basically an emerging economic giant. China is in no haste to overtake the Americans in becoming the Number One military power for years to come. It is pure foolishness to maintain a naval fleet of several aircraft carriers and military bases across the world as the financial cost is phenomenal. Any attempt to be near what the Americans are doing will bankrupt China in no time like its is bankrupting the Americans in double quick time.

But China is sure in posing a serious challenge to America as an economic power house. And the days when China overtakes America as the biggest economy is just around the corner. For sure, being an economic super power will not make China poorer but richer and a better quality of life for the Chinese people.

So what is America’s strategy to meet the Chinese challenge to becoming the biggest economy? More military alliances, more resources and finances in the military fields, more adversarial and confrontational policies, and all of everything to maintain American hegemony, while pointing at China for being more assertive, and Chinese hegemony when there is none.

The East Asian and South East Asian countries will now be forced to take on a more confrontational position against China, on the side of the Americans. The Trans Pacific Partnership was a disguise for another military alliance against China with Australia as the key partner in the making. Japan and South Korea are likely to follow suit as semi colonies of the Empire.

Would Asean countries be drawn into this American set piece and become the frontline to the American strategy of protecting the American home land and fighting a war in other people’s territories? There is no mistake that any conflict will be in the East China Sea or the South China Sea and involving the littoral states in the region.

The Philippines and Vietnam have some reasons to want to be part of the alliance to confront China and grab a piece of the South China Sea. Would the rest of the Asean states be willing to be pawns on the American chess boards and be played, be traded or sacrificed for the American interest? What will likely be the end game?

In the American calculation, they only think America and presume that the leaders of Asean will be unthinking and will simply go along with the American agenda at their behest. Have the Asean states grown up from the days of colonialism and want to be truly independent states and not be embroiled by big power rivalry when the price to pay is their own independence and freedom to drive their own national policies? Would Asean be abandoned or subsumed by the TPP and all its effort to build a non aligned neutral regional organisation go to waste? That’s what the Americans are saying. Asean can be history.

A New World Order could be in the making when military conflict and supremacy is no longer relevant, when wars between big powers are just too destructive to be conceivable. Only madness and mad men will still be thinking of conducting war as an extention to failed diplomacy.

The New World Order could be one where every state would grow and prosper economically for the betterment of their people without military conflict. The balance of military power today is such that no one country can get away with a military conflict without getting themselves into a state of comatose. The emergence of China, Russia, India and probably other regional powers would allow the smaller states more room to navigate free of the big power politics if they choose to be. It is an opportunity for more trade and economic diplomacy than building military alliances and adopting confrontational policies that could lead to an irreparable war of a scale untold in history.

No country can bear the loss and destruction of a modern 21st Century warfare. Vietnam War was bad, with a major part of the country obliterated. But that was miniscule compare to what could happen when the big powers unleash the full might of their fire power. The thought of Australia with it few million inhabitants as a player in a major war is foolish thinking. It is not even worth a pawn in the chess board of the super powers.

Would the New World Order have a chance to succeed, or would WW2 mentality and diplomacy take precedence and a more devastating war takes its place? Whither is Asean with the Trans Pacific Partnership? Would Asean want to be counted in as a pawn in the TPP to serve American interest foremost?