11/08/2011

CFDs are for sophisticated clients

With the MF Global bankruptcy turning into another lemon juice, more questions are being raised on CFDs in the media in the Sunday Times. When all the toxic notes and bonds were introduced to the market, they too were listed as sophisticated products, complex products for sophisticated clients. When the Lehman bonds have gone one step further and have been condemned as a con job in the US, when high risks housing mortgages were packaged and given triple AAA ratings to be sold to sophisticated investors, they also found the issuers betting against the failure of the bonds. The issuers thus made both ways, selling junks and if junks failed they would be paid by their insurers.

CFDs, like many derivatives, are highly geared instruments for trading in the market. And everyone knows that it is high risk and high return. Not only the sophisticated investors know of this risk, even the unsophisticated layman will know what they will be dabbling in.

For the less sophisticated investors, who are more prudent in their investment outlook, more are turning to the mundane and traditional stocks where the risk is lower. Simply, when one buys a stock, it is unlikely to lose everything unless the company goes bust or the management ran away. In trading derivatives, the margin is the capital in play and it is quite easy to lose everything in a short time.

Then again, lately stocks too have a very high tendency to go bust or with management running away and investors losing everything. Stocks too are not as safe as before the advent of derivatives. Many derivatives are stock based. What could happen is that the trading and fluctuating of stock prices are now tightly knitted with the prices of derivatives. Stock prices can also go on a wild ride when big derivative players have to cover their positions by manipulating stock prices. Though price manipulation is a breach of stock trading regulation, often it is very difficult to prove and to apprehend the manipulators. The latter have many sophisticated and complex ways of covering their tracks.

The seemingly innocent stocks are not that docile and safe anymore.

Does anyone spend a moment to think of what the word ‘sophisticated’ means in derivatives and stock trading? It is a sophisticated way to describe high risk gambling in the stock market. A sophisticated client is a client willing to take high risk, like a gambler. A sophisticated product or derivative is a high risk gambling product. Period.

High risk gambling belongs to the casino and not the stock market where the dynamics and conduct of business are different. Gambling is just gambling, take a bet, be fast, no need to worry about fundamentals, or no fundamentals at work. Buy white or red does not need analysts and their back breaking reports. Pressing the button of a jackpot machine only needs to look at the probability of winnings. A computer that can be attached to the machine will definitely increase the odds.
There is such a thing called blue chips in the stock market where the business and bottom line of the companies are more important in determining the price of the stocks than simply betting it up and down by algos in split seconds. Is the stock market turning into a casino or is it a mixture of both?

Perhaps the high risk derivatives should be assigned to a different platform, something like casino counters, and govern by the Casino Regulatory Authority. High risk gambling must be controlled under more stringent rules and regulations. Better still that they be delinked from the primary stock market. They can create derivatives from anything, not necessarily stocks in the stock markets, and this will spare the blue chips and good stocks from being murdered by the big derivative speculators.

And the word ‘sophisticated’ should be cast to the world of gambling and casinos.

A summary of the discussion on housing policies

Some Singaporeans refused to see the real causes of the housing problems.
Some may not be able to understand.
Some bark up the wrong trees.
Some accepted that this is the way things should be and willing to live with it.
Some really think that it is the higher income Singaporeans trying to snatch the few public flats from the lower income Singaporeans.
Some believe that the higher income Singaporeans must spend all their money to buy private properties.
Some believe that it is their own fault for not being able to afford public flats.
Some think public flats are cheap, some think affordable.
Some think this is the best the govt can do to help them.
Some are very happy with the state of housing.

What will happen eventually is that all the public flats would be owner occupied by Singaporeans. All the PRs will sell them when the price is high enough, to return to their home countries to buy mansions. Singaporeans will be the final owners of all the highly priced public flats and live in them till the leases expired.

But there is no need to worry. Singaporeans are still rushing to buy properties at whatever prices because property prices can only go up. Those who are coughing out a million dollar for their properties expect the prices to go higher, and higher, and higher. Those who come in to buy from them also expect the prices to go higher and higher, and higher.

This is the level of consciousness of unthinking Singaporeans on what is happening around them. No wonder they need more foreigners to come and help them. No one even consider if the govt has built enough flats for citizens who need one, all the angst could have been gone, and no need to have all the clumsy and painful rules and regulations and all the staff to try to wrangle with them. And no need to wait for 3 to 4 years before a flat is ready.

Given the birth rate of 50,000 and assuming 40% will get married, that is 10,000 units of flats needed annually, and not counting the influx of foreigners in the hundreds of thousands.

Where is the problem or who is causing the problem? And daft Singaporeans are blaming each other for depriving another from buying a public flat.

11/07/2011

Exasperation over stupid housing policies

An article by A Chan in the TOC is the manifestation of so much exasperation over stupid housing policies that have made our very own citizens feeling very frustrated, discriminated and angry with the govt that claimed to be looking after their interests, for their own good.

And many daft Singaporeans are arguing and pulling their hair over why this and why that, why not a bit more or a bit less? They forgot that the whole policy is flawed from its first premise. It was designed on the assumption that they cannot build enough flats for every citizen and therefore have to ration the flats, subsidised the lower income, and not allowing the higher income to buy public flats or compete with the lower income. This is the biggest bull and the biggest myth.

If the premise is that housing is a basic need and everyone needs a roof over his head, and it is the govt’s responsibility to provide this need, then all the silly rules and regulations will become irrelevant instantly.

Hsien Loong is asking the people to give suggestions, to change govt policies that are no longer relevant, or even stupid, then the housing policy is one that need to be buried and forgotten, and get a fresh new start.

Public housing is for the people, regardless of income level, just like NS is for every citizen regardless of his status or background. An NS man, rich or poor, pledges to defend this country and all. He needs at least a home to do that, to have something to protect in the first place.

And why the need to have all the salary ceilings with all the idiotic definitions? Count this don’t count that, commission counted, bonuses not counted. I have heard of cases when on study leave with no pay but a subsistence allowance for several years, HDB still insists on including the pay as the income. Technically, two incomes of $5k will be $10k. When one is on study leave without pay but a small subsistence allowance for several years, the income is really $5k plus the subsistence allowance which will not even touch $8k. But applicant disqualified.

Putting aside the issue of not building enough flats, all young couples need a flat to start their lives. For one reason or another, some delayed in getting married for many years and ended up in a situation when their incomes will exceed whatever ceiling is in place. Some joker blames the young for not planning their marriage and applying for a flat early. This is the most idiotic reasoning coming from the super talents. Not everyone can plan their marriages like planning to have breakfast.

If it is possible that every young couple can get hitched at 25 or the first few years on coming into the job market, then all the ceilings will no longer apply. It is only when they could not get hitch in time that this silly ruling will come in to affect their chances. And because of the unwillingness to build to meet the demands, many could not get their flats in time and by the time they were awarded one, their incomes could exceed the ceiling and be disqualified as well.

Back to my main point, the govt must build enough flats for all first timers regardless of their income level. This is a basic and primary need to start a family, to start a life. Failing to do this is a failure on the govt’s part to provide for the people. There could be some rules to keep public housing from being abused, like owners of private properties. Other than some major exclusions, all citizens must be entitled to buy their first flats and income should not be a determinant of their eligibility or the types of flats they can or cannot buy.

The govt’s key responsibility is to house its citizens. How much the citizens want to pay, what type of flats they need should be left to the discretion of the people. Maybe qualification against those who wants to buy beyond their means. Definitely not to force anyone to buy beyond their means.

Housing needs not be such a pain if the govt just build and this will remove all the frustrations that the people are facing because of the flawed assumptions in the housing policies. Or is this a sacred cow that cannot be slewed?

Happy Hari Raya Haji to all muslims.

11/06/2011

Steve Williams…How decent is white racism?

I’ll be damned to even be talking about white racism. There is no such thing as white racism. The only racists are the Asians and Africans, who are very good at calling the angmohs bad names. I believe many Singaporeans will be waiting to rubbish my comments about a non existence white racism. It is a bogeyman.

The whites are the most loving and compassionate people in this world. They are the champions of human rights, causes against aborigines, against animals, against weak nations and victims of oppression. That’s why the rest of the world love them and often reminisce the time when they had to call them masters. All have great stories about how well they were treated by their white masters. Singaporeans too like to heap praises on the whites as benevolent rulers. And the Asean countries are begging the Americans to stay on to be their ruler.

Some may think I am being cynical. Let’s face it, and I heard it in the elite circles, the world will not be what it is today without the great white man. They have liberated the world and brought about great progress for human kind. They have liberated the natives and aborigines from their wigwams and grass huts in America, Australia and New Zealand. Can’t imagine the pathetic state these countries would be without the white man.

And they have made sports a great event and fun event. They even abolished the old rules that only white man can play golf and tennis. Without the white man’s bravery and sense of justice to abolish such racist rules, Tiger Woods would not have the opportunity to play golf and be a world champion.

And for that privilege, he hired a white man to be his caddie for 13 years and probably made his caddie a very rich man. And you can see how happy his caddie was when carrying his bags. And every time Woods made a good shot, the caddie would be hugging him for the world to see. There was definitely no racial barrier when the white caddie had to call a black man master. The caddie loved his job and Wood’s colour was never an issue.

The caddie must have many fond memories of serving Woods. He too reminisces the good times when Woods was his master. And a few day’s back, while celebrating his award in Shanghai, in high spirit, he said, ‘It was my aim to shove it right up that black….hole’. And they roared in approval of such a great joke. It was really fun when everything said was for fun, with no bad intention. He would have sworn that all his 13 years with Woods, such a thought had never occurred to him. The evening was just a party and it was all in jest.

We have almost one page of articles on this remark by Steve Williams in the Sunday Times. Why is everyone so excited and agitated by what Williams said? Can’t people accept an innocent joke? Perhaps silly Asians got no sense of humour. And it is good that Williams teach them a bit about how to crack a joke.

Let me try one also. The headlines of all sports media used to have things like ‘Chasing the Tiger’, ‘Tigers the one to beat’, ‘Gunning for the Tiger’, whenever Tiger Woods was in the chase for a golf title. Let me try to imagine the next headline in the media when Tiger Woods is competing. ‘Going for the black….hole’. I don’t know what the 4 full stops meant. I just copied from the media on what Steve Williams said.

Come on you silly Asians, it is only a white joke. Have a little sense of humour. No need to work the small stuff. Definitely no Freudian slip. Peace, peace.