10/15/2011

Empty your wallet

The financial health of the young working class Singaporeans starts when they enrolled into tertiary education. For the more fortunate there is the PM scholarship, or papa mama scholarship to fall back on. The bills for their education will be picked up by papa and mama. For the less fortunate, they will have to take an education loan or to slog it out with some part time jobs to get by.

On completion of their first degree education, presumably they have taken an education loan, it is time to pay back. The PM scholarship recipients may also think of repaying their papa and mama. This will take out some of their exposable incomes which could have gone to their savings.

How long does it take for the young to save $100k or $200k for their deposits for their first flat? 5 to 8 years will be quite a reasonable time to save that first $100k/$200k for a tertiary educated young couple. And this sum will be clean off from their savings the moment they make that big decision, to get married and buy that property, public or private.

And for the next 30 years, the bulk of their savings will go to that property with little savings left. They would be quite lucky if they have enough money to meet the minimum sum requirements in the CPF and the Medisave. During this time, the family will be growing, with babies, and the need to pay for that precious car that a growing family needs at an average of $100k or $300k for 3 cars in 30 years. Come to think of it, the car is more expensive than a flat. A $400k will be useful for 99 years or costs $40k every 10 years, assuming there is zero value at 99 years. A cheap working man’s car is going to cost $100k every 10 year.

How much savings will a young couple starting out life today in 30 years time? By the time they hit the CPF withdrawal age, they will be lucky if there is some extra above the two minimum sum schemes to take out some money to spend. And this is only possible if there is no major health problem and admission to hospital which would likely empty everything in the Medisave and still not enough, and needing cash top ups. Hopefully there will be some cash savings available, not forgetting the PM scholarships they have to provide for their children.

What happens, for the fortunate few, everything will be just enough, everything just affordable, and the wallet nicely empty by the time they have to call it a day.

10/14/2011

Occupy Raffles Place

The Occupy Wall Street Movement is spreading across America and has reached Europe and Asia as well. We have Occupy London and now Korea, Malaysia, the Phillipines, Thailand on 15 Oct. Some Singaporeans are also talking about joining the Movement with Occupy Raffles Place this Saturday at 2.00pm. A facebook entry has been set up but meeting with lukewarm response. The police too have also taken to warn any would be demonstrators that it is illegal to do so except maybe Occupy HongLim.

The Movement started in New York where the protestors calling themselves the 99% are denouncing the greed in the finance industry, particularly the bankers and the Stock Exchange. They are saying that the huge income gap is unacceptable and the greed in Wall Street must be stopped.

How would this take shape here where the huge income gap is sung like a song, that it is perfectly a normal state of affair? From the look of it, it is going to be a non event. The people are happy with the big income gap and the greed all over as many are beneficiaries to the prosperity in every corner of the island. Everyone is feeling richer by the minutes while the income gap keeps widening. It is a good thing by the way.

Maybe they should change the tag into Celebrate Raffles Place. The turn out could be better and the festive mood may put the police more at ease.

Yes, yes. Not Occupy Raffles Place. Celebrate Raffles Place by the 99% of which many are millionaires also. They can also shout, Corporate Greed Is Good.

Sell Treasuries, Buy Corporates

October 12th, 2011
By David Goldman
In a new Macrostrategy report, we recommend selling Treasuries and buying lower-rated corporates
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The above extract from David Goldman is quite interesting. With a little twist, it can be turned into a strategy for SWFs. Sell core assets and buy fire sales assets. This means that one should sell all core assets, land, landed properties, and blue chip companies, for very good prices as they are really valued assets. With the money, go out to the world and buy lelong(junk) assets or lower rated corporate assets at fire sale prices. By selling a smaller number of core assets or blue chip assets, one can buy thousands of failed corporate assets and turn them around. Then can make billions and billions of profits.

I think it is a terrifying strategy, a brilliant strategy. Between a genius and an idiot, is only a fine line. I call it terrifying because if successful, the profits can be enormous. But failure rate is so high that it is terrifying. Only the fools or genius will ever think of applying such a strategy. It is like throwing good money after bad money. But if it is OPM, other people’s money, it is worth a gamble. After all one can lose everything, without losing one’s own pants. But if successful, one can claim all the credits and demand a pot of gold.

10/13/2011

Govt decided to sell less landed properties to PRs

Shanmugam said he would be surprised if approvals for sale of landed properties to PRs will be more than 50% of last year. The criteria for approval will be more stringent. About 230 applications were received yearly and about 60% or 140 were approved. So likely the number of approvals will still be around 100 a year.

According to the MD of RealStar Premier Group, the company sold an average of 10 to 20 landed properties a month to PRs. Using an average of 15 per month, RealStar alone would have sold 180 such properties a year. And RealStar is only one of the hundreds of real estate companies.

Assuming that RealStar is the biggest real estate company, and there are only 100 real estate companies here and each sells only 10 such properties a year, the total landed properties sold will be more than 1000 units. I think my assumptions and extrapolation are grossly flawed.

The total number of applications over the last 3 years averaged only 230. How can there be so many sales? Beats me. Nowadays my arithmetic is pretty bad. Blame it on my arithmetic sir.

I appreciate Melissa Tan’s ingenuity in her article on this subject today.

The best fighting soldiers

The British attacked China with a few wooden boats armed with cannons and won. A legion of 20,000 men from Europe calling themselves representatives of the League of Nation, ransacked the Summer Palace and burnt it to the ground. The Qing Empire was in shambles and China, together with all Chinese, bowed their heads in shame. It led to nearly 150 years of humiliation by the world. Even Chinese became ashamed of being Chinese or anything Chinese. They lost all self respect and confidence as a people, and nearly lost their country.

In the 150 years of shame, the Chinese diaspora started to settle all over the world as coolies, labourers and the luckier ones as cooks and laundrymen and farmers. There was no self respecting Chinaman to speak off. They were bullied, discriminated and abused, even killed everywhere they went. Many got killed in Indonesia and Malaysia, the Phillipines, Australia, Africa and the USA, for just being Chinese.

The thousand years of civilization was reduced to dust, nothing worthy to talk about. And in times of adversities, many Chinese stooped to work with their enemies, became traitors of their country and people, for the simple selfish reason of survival. In China, in Southeast Asia, the Chinese betrayed Chinese and helped the Japanese to kill many more Chinese. They became a hopeless race that were only good to be kicked around. No wonder many Chinese today still despise their Chineseness and anything Chinese.

There were many mean and shameful Chinese all over the world. For every such despicable Chinese, there were many that would rise and willing to fight and sacrifice their lives for their motherland. The revolutionaries that overthrew the decadent Qing Dynasty were Chinese, not that different from the shameless Chinese elsewhere. Hundreds of thousands died in the course of rebuilding their lost and broken country, in the name of martyrdom, patriotism and nation before self. Yes, there were many more patriotic Chinese out there, in the past and today.

The greatness of the Chinese people was lost in an era of shame and poverty. All that was written about the Chinese outside China were a helpless and hopeless people, good for nothing, shameful in everything. No one has any good impression of the inscrutable Chinese, no class, no personality and no money.

1911 was the formation of the Republic of China. 1949 Mao Tse Tung took over an impoverished China torn to pieces by warfare and foreign aggression and lootings. For once, a new China was emerging, a new united China standing up on its feet to face a brave new world. No one took them seriously, a communist country that was bankrupt in everyway, with no industry, except the will of a defeated and broken people.

1950, exactly a year after People’s Republic of China was formed, China entered the Korean War. The ferocious and hungry North Koreans were a force to be reckoned with. They drove the South Koreans nearly into the sea in Pusan. They could have reunited the Koreas into a united country. Then the world’s biggest military power intervened with the landing at Inchon, cutting the North Korean forces into two. The mighty Americans, with superiority in all arms, air force, navy and army, were too powerful for the North Korean foot soldiers. With little air cover and heavy weapons or tanks, the North Koreans were beaten back to the north. General MacArthur was victorious and continued in pursuit, crossing the 38th parallel and driving the North Korean soldiers across the Yalu River into Chinese territory. He paused and threatened to cross into China. The poor Communist China was in a dilemma. They had hardly stood on their feet, with not much military hardware except a bunch of peasant soldiers and small arms to face the might of the USA. The only thing they could depend on was the will of their fighting men, the same fighting men that fought the great Japanese Army who were supported by fighter bombers from the air and tanks and big artilleries on the ground, and a naval fleet that destroyed the American Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbour.

The Chinese soldiers fought the Japanese in many battles with small arms, rifles, machine guns, pistols, hand grenades, many obsolete, and broad knives. They could not defeat the Japanese, but neither the Japanese could defeat them, amidst heavy casualties on the Chinese side. The Chinese soldiers never say die, but die they did, in hundreds of thousands. These were the faceless, fearless and patriotic soldiers that would give their lives for their country. They have their unspoken heroes. For every turncoat Chinese, there were thousands and thousands of patriotic Chinese willing to die for their motherland.

Now another battle was looming with the victor of the Second World War at their doorstep. All the latest military hardware was available to MacArthur and his highly trained and equipped forces. The Chinese did not even have an arms factory then. No war machines and highly dependent on the Soviet Union for every bullet and rifle it needed. It was an odd that no military commander would be pleased with. They were simply outgunned, out classed and could easily be out manoeuvred by the highly mobile and modern American forces at their front yard.

To make matter worst, General MacArthur was no decent school teacher. He was a military brat. And with all the superior arms and forces in his charge, he was eager to push into China to thrash the commies and the gooks. Victory was at his calling. It was a military mismatch.
His other half on the Chinese side was General Peng Te Huai, a war veteran of the Long March, who was conversant with fighting a conventional cum guerilla warfare with only foot soldiers. No air power, no air cover. No big guns, no tanks or big artillery pieces. He could only fight a basic infantry battle on the ground, with soldiers running all over the place. In today’s parlance, MacArthur must be telling himself that it was a piece of cake, a cake walk to glory. Defeating the poorly equipped peasant soldiers was like playing war games.

The Chinese could not accept the Americans occupying North Korea and it was a do or die situation. The American war machine had crossed the 38th parallel against the warning of Zhou En Lai. They decided to intervene and take on the Americans. They ambushed the American division after division and sent them scurrying south of the 38th parallel. They exchanged the lives of their soldiers for American bullets. The Chinese soldiers fell like dominoes, but they kept charging. The Americans fired until their gun barrels melted by the heat of non stop continuous firing. The waves and waves of fearless peasant soldiers were too much for the Americans and they fled. They were driven south by the poorly equipped peasant soldiers with rifles and small arms and no air cover. The Americans were forced to retreat 500 km from the Yalu River back to where they started south of the 38th parallel. A stalemate and truce was called till today at the same position now known as the DMZ.

The Chinese soldiers battled the seasoned and well equipped first class American soldiers to a stalemate after chasing them out of North Korea. Their ability to send in 700,000 foot soldiers all the way from China deep into Korea without being detected was legendary. The soldiers travelled on foot and bicycles, and only by night. Their swift mobility and stealth allowed them to ambush Americans soldiers of division strength, not companies or battalions. MacArthur was caught sleeping until the PLA, then called People’s Voluntary Army, PVA, pounced onto them. He thought they were still in China. It also spoke highly of their intelligence gathering, without air recon, they could pin point all the American forces and took them out at will.

The Korean War was the first major military victory of the peasant soldiers of modern China. The war was fought at a time when Communist China was at its weakest while America was at its peak of military power, coming out as the main victor of the Second World War. And of course the Americans claimed they had won. That would be the American and western version of the story of victory over Chinese peasant soldiers. They will repeatedly tell the world and their allies that they pushed back the Chinese to the 38th parallel. They would not tell anyone that they were pushed down from the Yalu River to below the 38th parallel by the peasant soldiers. Neither will they tell the world that the Chinese troops were ordered to hold their positions at the 38th parallel which was and still is the demarcation line between the two Koreas. It was an internationally agreed line and sanctioned by the UN. It was the line that MacArthur was told not to breach. He did and get delirious only to be knocked back to sanity by the peasant soldiers of the PLA.

This war was also significant in the military sense as it was conventional warfare fought with guerilla tactics on the side of the Chinese. It was two huge armed forces of many divisions fighting in the battle field. Yes, designations of armies versus armies. Every arm and department of a combined armed force in battle was tested. Just to illustrate the scale of the war, the US 8th Army was attacked on 3 fronts, the US 7th Infantry Division with 30,000 men were encircled and had to fight their way out and suffered 15,000 casualties. Then the Marines were attacked by six Chinese PVA divisions and forced to retreat.

The Sino India Border War was another conventional battle but of a much smaller scale, brigade or division strength. In 1962, a staunchly nationalistic Nehru was the Prime Minister of a revived independent India. After 100 years of British colonial rule and inheriting British military training and arms, and a British map claiming Chinese territories as Indian’s, Nehru saw India as a new power in the region. In the north was the poor communist state of China. Adventurism and ambition came to his head. He had no respect for the peasant soldiers of a poor commie country. He had in his arsenal, some of the best and most modern firearms from the British. The peasant soldiers were inconsequential, hungry and not well fed or well trained. His dreams of grandeur led to designs on more Chinese land for India. He was not contented with the Chinese territories that McMahon drew into the British map as part of India. He wanted more.

Indian soldiers were sent to the border and started to attack the Chinese border guards. He was successful initially as the element of surprise in a military battle was with him. He planned the attacks and was well prepared for it, with his brigades and logistics. Indian soldiers entered Chinese territories and claimed victories over the Chinese for several weeks. Nehru was jubilant. The whole of India was jubilant. They were beating the commie Chinese soldiers. Soon India would be bigger with more Chinese land conquered and a respected big regional power.

Nehru took no heed to the warnings from Beijing. He kept on his attacks. In the meantime the Chinese were bringing in reinforcement and planning their counter attacks to rid the invaders. The easy victories got into Nehru’s head. He under estimated the fighting abilities of the peasant soldiers. When the Chinese launched the counter offensive, they were swift and deadly. Indian forces were cut off and destroyed. The rest just fled and fled, leaving behind their weapons and everything to the Chinese. There was no will to fight. The Chinese peasant soldiers drove all the way to the outskirt of New Delhi without resistance. It was like a hot knife cutting through butter.

The Chinese soldiers could easily march into New Delhi. But they unilateral declared a halt to their advances and withdrew. The Chinese could have taken back all the territories seized by the British there and then. But they told the Indian Govt that they would not take back their territories by military means. They would negotiate for their return by diplomacy. Then they returned all the military weapons captured, left behind by the fleeing Indian soldiers. The POWs were also returned, after being treated for their wounds and fed. They were not subjected to any torture or interrogations for military intelligence, except for their names and units. The Chinese treated them like friendly forces injured in a joint war game. No hostility or abuses.

The war tally, nearly 5000 Indian soldiers killed, 4000 captured and nearly 2000 wounded. On the Chinese side, 700 were killed and nearly 2000 wounded. None were taken as POWs.

All the Indian POWs and captured weapons were returned to the Indian govt without extracting any terms or conditions. It was Chinese diplomacy at its best. The Indians and the world were shocked by the event and started wild speculations trying to explain the Chinese conduct of the whole engagement. Of course they claimed that the Chinese were the provocators and the cause of the border war, and were taught a lesson by the Indians. And that the Chinese were driven out of India.

The Sino Indian Border War was the second military victory against a foreign power chalked up by the peasant foot soldiers of modern China, the PLA. It was a bitter lesson that the Indians learnt and that kept them away from more mischief in the Sino Indian border all these years. Lately there are signs that they have forgotten this lesson and are itching to test the peasant soldiers once again.

After proving their fighting capabilities, the world still looked down on the peasant soldiers. They were not very well equipped, not very well uniformed, not refined, just like peasants, unlike the sparkling tailored uniforms of the West, and those of the Indians. But they have proven twice to be a mean fighting machine.

Then came 1979. After their victory against the most powerful nation in the world, the Vietnamese thought they were invincible. They repaid gratitude to China for supporting them for 30 years against the Americans with several border incursions into China. The Vietnamese were once a part of the Qing Empire but ceded to the French when the Qing lost a war with them. There were good reasons to want to be tough and ungrateful to their former ally. Like the Sino Indian border incursions, the Vietnamese were victorious in their surprise attacks and did not take the Chinese warning seriously. They had defeated the mighty Americans and what was a poor commie peasant army? They must have believed that they could lick the Chinese army like the way they kicked the Americans out of Vietnam.

The Vietnam War was not conventional warfare. It was guerilla warfare, a war of attrition. The Vietnamese outlasted the Americans. There were some battles but of much smaller scales. The American troops did not meet force to force with the Vietnamese. During the dying days, the Americans were just pulling out and the Vietnamese moving in.

The biggest conventional battle fought in Vietnam was Dien Bien Phu in 1954. There the Viet Minh fought the French in a main battle field and won convincingly.

When the Chinese launched their counter attacks in 1979, it was a repeat of the Sino Indian border exercise. They came with a cane and whipped the behinds of the Vietnamese and sent them running back to Hanoi. Yes, it was conventional warfare. They defeated the Vietnamese soldiers in the battle field. The Chinese peasant army could march into Hanoi if they wanted to. But to show their non aggressive intent, they stopped and withdrew like before. The Chinese not only wanted to teach the Vietnamese a lesson not to be ungrateful, and also not to think too highly of themselves, it was also a message to the world that it harboured no territorial designs on its neighbours.

The Americans fought every war and kept their soldiers behind, in Europe, in Japan, in South Korea, unfortunately they were driven out of Vietnam. The Americans are also in the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and now Libya.

But the world and some silly Asians, including some Chinese, chose not to believe the Chinese peaceful rise. The Chinese had fought in Korea, India and Vietnam, because the enemies came to them, and then withdrew after defeating the enemies. If these were not enough to show their non expansionist and not aggressive policies, what else would the world want before they will acknowledge that China is a peaceful country?

Of course the Western media put the blame on China in all three wars, as the aggressor and also the loser. The Chinese lost to the Americans in Korea, driven out by India, and were taught a lesson by the Vietnamese. The fact is that the arrogant Vietnamese have since become a very peaceful neighbor. No more adverturism. So is India.

What the three wars said, or did not say, is that the Chinese peasant soldiers had fought three wars, against the Americans and supplemented by its Allies under the guise of UN, which meant that the PLA fought the combined forces of at least 15 countries, then the Indians and the mighty Vietnamese that defeated the mightier Americans, and came out victorious. In the war against the Americans and its Allies, the odds in terms of technology and hardware were stacked against the Chinese, and still they came out on top.

The Chinese people should be proud of the way their peasant soldiers conducted themselves in battle. They were not pushovers. And today, with the full compliments of an air force, navy and army and supporting arms, equipped with the best weapons and communication systems, they now have their own armed industries and are self reliance in weapons production, the peasant soldiers are more than the peasant soldiers of the past. The PLA is now well equipped, well fed, well armed and well uniformed and can take on any military power anywhere, any time. This is the new Chinese peasant soldier, a soldier of the 21th Century with a record of 3 victories against enemies that were better equipped, with better weapons and superior firepower, and with better credentials. What US marines? They will eat them for breakfast. Don’t trifle with the PLA. They can fight conventional war as well.

Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgfFpojG4GM&feature=topics The crushing moment - part one.

PS. This article is written to commemorate the new China’s 60 years of struggle to reconstruct a country, to rebuild a nation, to redeem the pride and dignity of a people, to bring economic prosperity to its people, to restore faith and confidence in its people, to be a respected nation and an equal among all nations. As a Singaporean of Chinese origin, I wish them well.