9/22/2011

The Internet Balancing Act

This is the most appropriate statement about the state of affairs in Cyber World. It is all a balancing act by the internet service providers, software designers and producers, software companies and the internet terrorist brigades and their voracious and destructive viruses. They compliment each other’s existence and usefulness, scratching each other’s back and making a pile for themselves. The victims are all the internet users, the institutions that depended on the internet to do their businesses, and the policing forces that are always playing catch up with them.

The software and systems providers need the vicious virus developers to keep the losers continuously upgrading their systems and keeping the industry happy and rich. While they think that this is a good symbiotic relationship to fleece on the innocent users, it will one day grow to such a mammoth proportion that will crash the whole system.

Internet virus developers, including spammers and hackers are dangerous and destructive to the viability of the internet as a convenient business tools. Until the authorities and the software developers, system providers are serious in removing this plague, they will have a life of their own, conveniently accepted by the software developers and system providers, to create problems and generate more businesses.

My redbeanforum.com has been subjected to daily attacks of pornography and nonsensical spammings, nothing different from the attacks on MBS or Resort World, or other govt or commercial institutions. I have made it a read only blog to stop the attack.

I am very pleased with Bloggers for being able to fend off most of the spammings and pornographic attacks and keeping mysingaporenews.blogspot.com relatively free from them. Unlike other blogging or internet platform, Blogger is superior in this sense. Many of you did not see the spamming and have taken this for granted. But I am receiving daily feedbacks on the number of attacks in my email.

There is no reason why the scourge of spamming and virus attacks cannot be eradicated. The culprits are the software developers and system providers who are in a way accomplices to this menace and allowing them to continue to spread the disease. If the authorities can come down hard on them, with their combined resources, every one of them will be arrested. There is no where to hide and no where to run, if the authorities and the industry mean business to wipe out this pain for good.

Until then, it will be a balancing act. Yes, we need the National Cyber Security Centre to combat such crimes.

The horse is sick

It was a strong and healthy horse. The owner saw the great potential in this animal. He had great plans for the horse to run in all the great derbies across the world, Singapore, Hongkong, Dubai, American, Australian, English etc, to be a champion among the best of race horses.

The best international trainer and manager were hired to groom this horse. World class vets, dieticians, the best diet, drugs and stimulants were injected into the horse. A well planned training regime and the best computer programmes to monitor its progress. The best and finest of everything money can buy were bought for the horse.

For a while things looked promising. The horse was lean and trim, looking more like a race horse. The bets were good and winnings started to roll in. International syndicates were brought in to raise the bets. Big dreams and big time gambling and big egos were fanned.

Then everything started to go wrong. And the horse fell sick, very ill. The punters lost everything and lost interests as well as their capital. The international syndicates also started to lose interests as the winnings got smaller. Their investments were big and they expected big returns. But with all the punters packing their bags after losing everything they had, there was nothing left for the pickings.

What went wrong? Actually it was too obvious. Everyone knew what went wrong except the owner. Even the international manager and trainer knew what was wrong from the start. But they were paid well and tried their best, but not telling the owner. Or maybe they too believed that they could do wonders to the horse.

It was never a thoroughbred to start with. It was a strong and sturdy work horse, a farm horse. It would work hard in the farm and be very productive in its own way and at its own pace. It could never race with the best in the world. It could not take the drugs and the regimes of a race horse.

The name of the horse is SGX.

In the last few sessions, the trading volume has dropped to a level never seen before. It was scary. The investors are fleeing or have gone hiding. They could not win in a system that favours the big players and their machines. Small innocent men are no match against machines. They lost and lost and lost. So were the remisiers trying to trade against the high speed computers.

The next victim would be the brokerage. Their overheads are high. Management, staff, rentals, hardwares, all cost money. The miserable trading volumes would not be able to support their overheads. Retrenchment and downsizing are imminent.

The big players and the machines will find it no longer lucrative to be in the market when there is a dearth of investors. They can’t justify their presence without the comparable income and winnings from the market. They will quit for greener pastures.

The listed companies will find it meaningless to see their shares become penny stocks, practically worthless and unable to raise funds from the market. There is no point paying the listing fee to be in a cheap stock market. It is a matter of time before they start to delist from the exchange as well.

New IPOs will have problems finding takers. The valuation will be low and not worth listing. Even if they are successful in listing, the shares would soon become penny stocks.

The other big losers will be the two great sovereign funds. The values in their blue chip holdings too will go dwindle like any other stocks.

Can the sick horse be nursed back to health? The toll for indiscretion and megalomanic dreams are high. The infrastructure and supporting base of small investors are badly hurt and near to ruins. The industry is at a point of self destruct.

Whither the SGX? Who is killing this workhorse?

9/21/2011

Is Halloween a wholesome family affair?

My little knowledge of this western cultural event is that it is a family affair where the parents would dress up their little love ones and walk with them, to knock on their neighbours’ doors for a little treat and fun. It is a wholesome family activity really. Or is it not? Maybe our expats here could help to enlighten the ignorant world citizens that claimed to be well travelled and well read of this festivity that it is not anti family.

My memory of the Seventh Moon Celebration also says that it was/is a family affair. The parents would be buying all the goodies and preparing them as offerings to the good brothers for blessing. No one was to say anything bad. Hmmm, respecting the good brothers. All would be in the best of behavior in greeting and praying to them, and offering them the goodies. What’s wrong with diplomacy with the spirits or even devils?

And at the end of it, there would be a feast. Many in those days did not eat chicken or meat regularly. In such a festival, meat, chicken and fish would be on the table. It was a hearty meal for all that did not come often. If this is not a family affair, what is?

The Chinese cultural and religious practices are all embracing and all inclusive. Gods, deities, spirits, devils etc are all welcome to live in peace and harmony with human beans. Gods, deities, spirits, devils can also give blessing and protection to the mortals. When they are kind, they can give 4 D numbers too. There is no constant battle between the gods and the devils. They are all part and parcel of life, in this world and in the other worlds.

Unbelieveable! The physical and spiritual worlds are very colourful and can co exist. And this can only be more colourful with international and foreign devils in our midst. As a cosmopolitan city of the world, we cannot afford to be narrow minded to be religiously correct and puritans.

When scoundrels are in charge

Nations or empires rise and fall throughout history. They all went through the same stages of change in their political ethos regardless of whatever political system.

When an empire or a nation is in the ascent, the leaders will be honourable and work for the betterment of country and people. The same leaders could become dishonourable and cheat, and run the country for their own personal benefits when the empire or nation is in decline. When nations are on the rise, there will be righteousness, rule of law, able leadership and a few good men.

A good example of a nation on the rise is China. Just ignore the political craps coming out from the West and look at how that country is being managed, growing in leaps and bounds, and will soon overtake America, driven by its own talents and political leadership. It was blessed with admirable and selfless men like Deng Xiao Ping, Jiang Ze Min, Zhu Rong Ji, and now Hu Jin Tao and Wen Jia Bao plus a few very able second echelon leaders.

These men are not without faults. But they are driven with a cause. The country is also not without faults, with corruption and abuses of authority in many places. But the rule of law is upheld and will deal with the violators. The violators are the scoundrels and the law is against them. The scoundrels know that they are doing wrong and will have to face justice and the rule of law.

When a nation is in decline, like the US, there will still be the rule of law. But scoundrels are everywhere. And the scoundrels do not think that they are doing wrong and that they have to account for themselves under the rule of law. They hijack and apply the rule of law to their benefits. The rule of law is for the scoundrels. When such a situation is reached, the descent from glory is imminent and unavoidable. For the scoundrels are in charge and the rule of law will not stop them, or cannot stop them from their wrong doings. The scoundrels are on the right side of the rule of law and interpret the rule of the law to their advantage.

See the difference in the case of a nation in ascent? There the scoundrels know that their actions are wrong. In the case of a nation in decline, the scoundrels do not think they are doing any wrong, and their conscience is clear, or they just pretend to be so.

Every society has its own share of scoundrels. But scoundrels are normally put in the right places on legal grounds, ethical and moral grounds. When legal, ethical and moral grounds are blurred and scoundrels can scale over them, no longer obstructions to their actions, when there is no guilt, no wrongs and no conscience pricks, the end is near.

The UBS Circus in town

The loss by the trader Kweku Adoboli, has ballooned to $2.9b. GIC is demanding that UBS takes firm action to deal with the problem. The CEO, Oswald Gruebel is asking the board of directors for permission to restructure the banks investment arm. This is like after Mas Selamat had escaped and everyone responsible was calling for corrective actions when the actions should have been taken before it happened.

In the case of banking frauds from rogue traders, it is not something new. It happened and happened and happened. Why are banks paying millions and millions for assholes to run them and allow such a simple crime to be repeated over and over again? It beats me.

The root of the problem runs deeper in the whole financial industry. It is all grounded on greed, to make quick billions to pay themselves. The banks were once an icon of stability and security, rock solid. Banks were conservative, managing wealth. Now banks want actions too, to make quick billions, to pay big bonuses. So engaging in gambling is just another means to achieve such an objective. No, they don’t gamble, they invest in risky products, invented risky products, trade in risky products.

We have seen Barings Bank at ground zero, and a few more strong and solid American financial institutions on the ground too. No one is taking heed. When banks and financial institutions are all gambling in risky products, it is only a matter of time when they go under. This will include DBS, UOB and OCBC, if they are not careful. It will include GIC, Temasek and the SGX. With our SWFs placing their big chips everywhere in such a risky time, a financial collapse could wipe off everything.

The financial institutions and industry have gone far too deep into the abyss of gambling. They don’t even see the difference. It is like drug addicts or the drunkards, without knowing what is happening to them. Only the people watching from outside the fishbowl can see clearly what is happening.

Gambling, taking high risk, conflict of interests, are now part and parcel of the financial industry. More will fail, and fall real hard, if the real problem is not treated. The greed to be big, to be a world player, comes at a big cost, while the ego gets bigger. All cautions were thrown out of the window. Selling of toxic products is fair game, creating an unfair system is fair game, conflict of interests, trading against clients, against small investors is fair game. Making small innocent investors to gamble in useless derivatives is fair game. Paying hundreds of millions of debt of badly run companies, like Manchester United, is fair game.

The road down is very slippery. When will the banks be stopped from risky trading and gambling? When will the financial system be overhauled and toxic products be stopped?