8/26/2011

New clothes maketh a new man

Are Singaporeans mortals or higher mortals, or simply robotics? We have a Presidential election tomorrow. From the onset of this election the Singaporeans were told that this is a non political election. The Elected President is non political and is above politics. There is no politics involved here, but the higher national interests. So Singaporeans all went about garbling that the election has nothing to do with Singapore’s politics.

Next came the candidates for the presidency. Three resigned from their political parties only a few days ago, and one resigned several years back. All claimed to be independent of any political parties or association. And all claimed that they are now new men and will not be influenced or affected by their past associations. The apolitical Office of the Presidency is safe. It will not be tarnished by any swine that will be elected to serve the interests of political parties.

And no political party stands out to endorse any of the candidates, to keep politics out of the election. Any politicians that endorsed or spoke well for the candidates were speaking in their own personal capacities, with no political agenda.

This is how clean this Presidential election has become. It is a role model for the world to emulate. Change the clothes and change the man. We have instant trees. Now we have instant apolitical men.

My apologies. Think I have a few glasses too many.

Test for daft Singaporeans


This Saturday, 27 Aug 2011, Singapore will again have an opportunity to sit for a test to prove their daftness once again. For so many years, Singaporeans have not only been told that they are daft, they even agreed that it is true and accepted the fact shamelessly.

After a life time of slogging, when many have become grandfathers and grandmothers, when the normal process of growing up and ageing would have made them wiser, they were told that they cannot be trusted with their hard earned money. And this money will be kept away from them, maybe return to them in drips, and in exchange they will be given a piece of paper every month to tell them how rich they are, and also how daft they are.

They were also told that foreigners are here to help them, to create jobs for them. But before doing that, the foreigners would have to take some of their jobs. And if they lost out to the foreigners, they were told to buck up or that they were lazy, less competitive and must go for retraining, for a lower skill job than before. And also, the foreigners are here to help to increase the value of their properties that they cannot sell. For after selling, they would not be able to afford to buy the next property except by downgrading.

There are many other things that were shafted down their throats to confirm their daftness. This Saturday, they will be put on another test to confirm how daft they are, or whether they are beyond redemption.

The test is about a Justice Bao, a Song magistrate that was legendary for his impartial dispensing of justice, without fear or favour. This time the daft Singaporeans were told that Justice Bao has reincarnated. He is going to stand for election as the next President. And Justice Bao will uphold justice with absolute impartiality. He will not be affected by his relations with anyone in the execution of his duties. Any govt official that is corrupt will be beheaded under the tiger head guillotine. The Singaporeans are told to elect this Justice Bao the reincarnated as their President. And Justice Bao will demolish the myth that absolute power will corrupt. With Justice Bao as the President, there is no such thing as corruption of power. The more absolute the power the better for Singaporeans, when Justice Bao is around. Singaporeans will once again be told to vote for absolute power.

Would Singaporeans again prove themselves to be daft and vote the reincarnation of Justice Bao to be their President? The verdict will be out by 28 Aug 2011.

8/25/2011

Latest poll numbers

Less than 12 hours from the election campaign and Tan Jee Say is still in the lead with 69%. Overall his votes have slipped by 5% from the day the polls were set up. The other three candidates have a small share each of the 5% votes from Jee Say. Tan Cheng Bock is now at 18%, Tan Kin Lian at 6% and Tony Tan at 5%.

What do these numbers tell? There are a couple of assumptions that can be used to interpret how they would reflect the actual election. One, assuming that all those voting in this poll are anti PAP votes, which is not the case as some still voted for Tony and Cheng Bock is running in second place, and if the overall votes cast against the PAP is 50%, Tan Jee Say is going to garner 34.5% of popular votes. And this is likely to be the base support for Tan Jee Say.

Tan Kin Lian’s position is looking pretty weak and may lose more grounds on actual voting if the voters choose to throw everything with Tan Jee Say.
The big question now is between Tan Cheng Bock and Tony Tan. Theoretically, with all the endorsements, Tony Tan should carry at least 70% of the pro PAP votes. This will put him neck to neck with Jee Say at 35% against Jee Say’s 34.5%.

Tan Cheng Bock will have the balance of 15% plus the anti PAP votes of 9% (18% x 50) giving him 24%. His only chance to be in the running will be to take away more votes from Tony. To give him a real chance of catching up with Jee Say, he will have to take near to 50% of the pro PAP votes, which will give him 34% (25 + 9). 40% will not be good enough.

However, if Tony’s share of the pro PAP votes goes down to 60%, his total is going to be 30% (60% x 50) which will make him precariously close to losing to Tan Jee Say.

What is quite sure in this election is that 40% will be casting against the PAP camp with a likelihood of 50% this time. The pro PAP camp can count on 30% solid support plus another 20% swing votes. So my conclusion is that it will be Tan Jee Say versus Tony Tan or Tan Cheng Bock. It will be very close and if the anger is strong enough against the PAP, Jee Say is likely to be in with Cheng Bock pulling down Tony’s vote but not enough to lift him over Jee Say.

My take is on Jee Say taking a slight edge, beating Tony and Cheng Bock by a nose. But, if the polls here is representing 70% of all voters, less the 30% of hard core PAP supporters, then Jee Say is going to romp in with a comfortable 49% of votes count.

The arithmetic of the 26 sites

The PA is leasing 26 sites from the HDB for community events. How long is the lease and how much would it cost the PA for the lease? The next question is the number of days that these sites will be used.

If the usage of the sites, averaging once a week for each site, it will mean that the sites will be unused for 365 - 52 days or 313 days. Double the usage to 2 days every week, ie Sat and Sun, it will still be 261 days unused. A long lease in such a case would mean that the PA will be paying the HDB 261 to 313 days for not using them. Ok, the rate of rental for long lease could be lower than daily rate.

The question is whether it is cheaper for PA to pay for rental of the sites on a used basis, or daily rate? I don’t have the numbers but I think it will be much cheaper to pay on use than to pay for long term lease when the sites are not intensively used.

Can someone work out the numbers? One thing good about paying from one pocket to another pocket is that it will look good on economic numbers like GDP. Perhaps the PA could sublet the sites at a higher rate with profits.

What is happening in the stock market?


Hundreds of millions have been lost in the stock market by small investors since programme trading, algo and high computers were attached to the system of the stock market. This development means that the big funds are able to take full advantage of technology by plugging their computers into a system that they were once forbidden to do so, and trade against small investors, and cleaning them up.

Nobody is crying foul, or nobody dares to, or nobody wants to. So everyone pretends like there is nothing wrong, just like the toxic notes and Lehman bond crisis. The money lost in the stock market is many multiples of the previous scam and the number of victims were much more numerous.

One day it is going to explode and as usual, everyone will pretend to be ignorant of it. Everyone will say I dunno. Is there anything wrong with the stock market trading system? Is there a level playing field? Are there any violations to the rules and regulations of stock trading?

I swear to god that there is nothing wrong. I think the system is perfect, and volume is increasing and the stock exchange is making a lot more money than before. Those losers just got to blame themselves. I am sure the SGX and MAS know exactly what they are doing and everything is just fine. We can trust the super talents to do their homework as they are paid very well to do their jobs.

Some people have been complaining to me that something is really foul with the system. I disagree completely. But if they do feel strongly that something is wrong they need to prove it. Or they may want to take advantage of the presidential election and bring their grouses to the presidential hopefuls. These are honourable men who have pledged to safeguard the nation’s reserves with integrity. And if the small investors think that are caught in a scam, and brought to their attention, they will definitely take up their case to protect the small investors. They are men of honour and their positions with regards to the banning of MP Chen Show Mao in Aljunied are testimonies to their principles for fair play and justice.

Bring the problems to them and let them raise the issues with the proper authority. For me, I don’t see anything wrong so I would not know what to say. The SRS, SIAS, the broking houses, too are interested parties and they too did not see anything wrong and are not complaining.

Those people who complain about unfair practices, uneven playing field, unfair advantages, may not have a case, I think. If they think they cannot beat the system, don’t get it. It is caveat emptor.