An embarrassing moment repeating?

The likeable George Yeo could not imagine that he could be bundled out of a general election. Frankly, I too was surprised by his defeat and the losing of 5 super talents in one go. On reflection, none of them should take it personally as the defeat was not their fault. There was a change of wind. The defeat was a defeat of the PAP. Too much, too long, the PAP has overstayed its welcome and the people were looking for a change.

There was resentment too. The policies of the past decade have alienated the people to a point that the anger must be released. And George Yeo and his team were the unfortunate scapegoat. Nothing personal.

The present election for the EP could see another embarrassing moment being repeated. The possibilility of Tony Tan losing the election is very high despite all the endorsements from all corners appearing in the media. Endorsements by office bearers and committees are different from the feelings of the rank and file. The elite will think differently and may want to sit in the same table and sing the same song. The masses, the ordinary people, may have a mind of their own and want to do their own thing.

Don’t be surprised if Tony Tan did not make it to the Istana. What if he loses his deposit? That will be terribly embarrassing. But again, it has nothing to do with him. The vote against him is likely to be a vote against the ruling party. For the moment Tony is the front runner with endorsements from every where. He is having a good start.

Strange for me to look at the Presidential Election in this manner as it is not meant to be partisan or political while my whole reasoning is about politics, nothing but politics.

Would we see the knuckle duster again?

My article on Lee Hsien Loong’s National Day concessions is pretty generous and I thought for a start it is quite promising. There are other perspectives that are calling for more changes while some are asking for compensation for the wrongs and damages done by past policies. These are very serious in monetary terms for those badly hurt by the education policies and housing fiasco that were trumpeted as great jobs done. They were nearly awarded the public stars. We know that they are now history, good riddance.

Hsien Loong has taken a more conciliatory approach to deal with the problems, used to be called achievements, created by policies of the past few years. Trying to accept them and see them as problems and looking for solutions to them must be quite pressurizing. It could be different, a triumphant glory, if they were painted as great policies and nothing needs to be done. As things are, there is an admission that not all are right or good stuff. Some were blatantly disgusting.

What if Hsien Loong took the kpkbs negatively, or someone suggested to him that he needs to be tough, never retreat under pressure, never allowed the people to make demands on him, and offers him the knuckle duster? If that happens, I can easily foresee the following developments.

There will be a clamp down on new media. There will be people being sued. There could be midnight callers. And Hsien Loong could appear on national TV to speak to the people in a different tone. He may even shed some tears for the tough measures that he had to take against the detractors, all for the good of the country. The country will be pitched to be in a state of crisis, and tension would spread across the island. Some may end up as bankrupts, some may escape from paradise.

And all the ministers who were stripped from their posts will be resurrected and elevated to high pedestals, as heroes who made tough decisions. Only strong and good leaders are capable of making tough decisions even when the policies hurt the people badly. But there is always the long term good to preach. In the long run, like from a distance, the earth looks so beautiful, and everything will turn out well.

And everything goes on as usual, with all the past policies in force. Property owners will be smiling when property prices shoot to the sky. CPF holders will be smiling when they read their monthly statements. Foreign talents will be smiling everywhere and telling their country men that Singapore is a paradise. And more foreigners will be queuing up to come to paradise. Some will be pointing to the jams everywhere as signs of progress and vibrancy.

There will be high economic growth and prosperity, at all cost. And everything else is just an aspiration, except money in the pocket.

Telling the President hopeful's fortune

My bookie came to see me for guidance on the Presidential Race. He has faith in my clairvoyance ability and also my skills in fixing numbers. Of course I obliged when there is a big angpow waiting for me.

So I took out a wash basin, filled it with holy water, threw in a few twigs of pomegranate leaves. Then I lighted three joss sticks and got into a prayer for my spiritual guide.

The result of my spiritual trip was most enlightening. 50:50, a touch and go Presidential Race. How does this works out? In the last GE, PAP garnered 60% of popular votes. This time around, they are likely to get only 50% for the following reasons. It is not about electing a govt. That has been confirmed and no risk in electing whoever as the President. It would still be a political contest between the PAP and the non PAPs.

The second point is the lost of faith in the govt and its policies. People are getting very cynical and are questioning how these policies are benefiting them. Many have great doubts. Many too have great doubts in the abilities of the super talents giving the fiascos in the surge in population, high property prices and the lapses/bad policies to build more flats, to provide the infrastructure for the big influx of foreigners. And there are the big losses in our sovereign funds, the failure in our education system to produce top talents leading to such a pathetic state that Singaporeans have to depend on foreigners to come here to help them. Not enough hospitals or not enough lower class wards. There are many more things that have inundated the Singaporean minds.

The third point is the need for a strong President to check on a rogue govt led by a rogue PM. Singaporeans may be daft, or some people may think so. But no Singaporean is going to believe that an independent director handpicked and paid by the management can be an effective watchdog to monitor the wrong doings of the management. This principle is applicable to the Elected Presidency. But some daft Singaporeans will not think, and will still be deceived. Serious and rational thinking Singaporeans, and there are many out there, will want to vote for a truly independent individual that can check on the govt.

The votes will be split evenly for various reasons, between the two pairs of candidates, Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock versus Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian. The former have strong links with the govt and the latter are seen as more independent or not related. Now let’s look at the numbers. With 50% each, Tony and Cheng Bock are likely to split their votes between 20:30 and 24:26, likely in favour of the former. In the Jee Say/Kin Lian camp, it could be the same split and would make the contest that more interesting.

What other factors could be thrown into the computation to make the difference? The controversy over Patrick Tan is still hanging over Tony’s head and if there is a whistle blower, this could completely demolish his chances, and the biggest beneficiary will be Cheng Bock. In the case of the rest, anything can happen. Who knows when a monkey will escape from the zoo to accuse one of them of stealing his peanuts? Or some jokers may stand out to complain of losing paper clips.

For the moment it is 50:50 and depending on the combination, both sides will have a candidate that may tip the scale. Will the people vote for a pro PAP President or an independent President? Sorry, wrong choice of words. All the candidates are independent of political parties and are standing on their own. They have no links with any political parties. This is a completely non political election, get it?

The people are quite lucky to have four highly qualified and respectable men, with good reputation and integrity, to choose from. Now who is going to win? Let me toss my dice….

Voting for a LPPL Elected President?

Following the public exchange of views on the role of the President, Law and Foreign Affairs Minister K Shanmugam has upped the ante by making a not-so-veiled threat – claiming that the President can be removed from office if he attempts to go against the government.

The above is quoted from an article by Tanya Wei in the TRE. After reading this and Shanmugam’s example of a British King that lost his throne for challenging the elected govt, I got this very uneasy feeling. I am wondering whether I should laugh or throw out at the thought of electing a President that would be removed from office if he goes against the govt.

What is the key issue concerning the Elected President today? The high salary and the ceremonial role of the EP are just side issues. What is upper most in the people’s mind is the power to go against the govt to protect the reserves. The people want an EP that would go against the govt when the time calls for it.

Now we are told, or warned, or implied, or kind of threatened, that if the EP is to go against the govt, like saying no to spending the reserves, he will be removed.

Put it simply, why have an EP in the first place? Some are calling this election a sham. It is looking more like a LPPL President just for show and will be removed when he is needed at the critical moment. It reminds me of the fate of Ong Teng Cheong.

What’s happening?

PAP beating a retreat

3 May at Fullerton Square, Lee Hsien Loong apologised to the people on behalf of the govt. It was an ominous gesture for the PAP. The GE saw the defeat of a key minister and the lost of a GRC. George Yeo had seen it coming. He related an incident to Hsien Loong of a voter telling him he was going to vote opposition a couple of days earlier.

The aftermath of the GE saw the stripping of 3 ministers from their posts and the stepping down of LKY and Goh Chok Tong. Since then, the PAP must have taken George Yeo’s advice seriously to reflect on themselves and their policies. And it has been on the defence, retreating all the way from their arrogant and I know best ways.

Many policies were revamped and the kpkbs of the people were taken heed. Yes, the PAP is taking very seriously the noises made by the people. The callous and bullying housing policies were dumped with a new minister in Boon Wan taking charge. He is not dictating to the people to live by his terms like his predecessor, but going all out to build more flats to meet the needs of the people, to restrain the rising property prices, telling the applicants not to screw themselves up by blindly applying for a flat with anyone in a hurry.

Measures were taken to slow the pace of immigrations even after LKY had said that another 900,000 foreign workers were needed. The MOM has come out with new regulations to limit a free flow of foreigners like TGIF. In a way Hsien Loong was arresting the fears of young Singaporeans losing out in the job market to hungrier FTs.

The cries for more university places were also heard and more places will be squeezed out for Singaporeans, with the intake of foreign students frozen at the current level. Yes, he is saying Singaporean First and doing it.

The new media is not giving up with their attacks and demands for a more Singaporean centric govt and policies. The new media was tolerated and permitted to carry on as usual, with bigger space to air their views.

The issuing of 4 COEs to presidential hopefuls is unthinkable and unprecedented. With all the discretion in the hands of the govt, it could easily tighten the screw and push through its endorsed candidate in a walkover by rejecting the other candidates. It was a huge concession, a huge step backwards, to appease the anger of the people.

Shanmugam, the elite and top notched lawyer minister was lambasted and had to beat a retreat from his interpretations of what a EP can or cannot do. Any minister or MP trying to make clever talks were not spared and were hammered relentlessly, including presidential hopeful Tony Tan, once a PM potential. The other once arrogant ministers were no where to been seen, probably trying to live by the new mantra that they are the servants and not the lords of the people.

The retreat by the PAP under Hsien Loong’s leadership is not in disarray. It is a measured retreat, taking a stand here and there not to concede too much ground. All the concessions were in response to the feedbacks from the people, primarily from the new media. The govt may not admit it officially, but there is a big battle going on with the govt taking stock of its positions and responding with changes in its policies.

Hsien Loong is leading the govt with a completely new style from his predecessors. Could he do otherwise if he is going to regain the confidence and trust of the people, and to extend PAP’s rule into the future? Another big concession is waiting to be served, the slashing of ministerial salary, including that of the ceremonial President. How much and how far will Hsien Loong be able to engage the people while on the defensive is still unfolding. The day is young.