1/10/2011
China could win the war with the US without fighting
The stealth fighters, the carrier killer missiles, the anti satellite missiles, have changed the picture of American dominance in the military theatre. They were once untouchable. They were once the only one who could attack any country without being attacked. That was how powerful and formidable the empire was.
Now the balance of power is changing. No doubt the Americans are still Number One. But it is so cheap to send 20 carrier killer missiles to sink an aircraft carrier and 7000 crews and a few hundred aircraft plus munition for desserts.
How could China win a war with the Americans without fighting? Just read the panic in the American Defence Dept on China’s revelation of a stealth fighter and you will know what I mean. Yes, the Chinese is very far behind in military technology. But there is fear in the Americans that the Chinese are getting closer. And they need to run faster, much faster. They, I mean the Americans. Their military doctrine is all about unmatchable superiority in fire power and technology. They want to keep at a far distance from the rest of the world.
What does this mean? They need to spend more to be much further ahead of China or their nearest competitor. And all China needs to do is to keep on the chase. For every dollar the Chinese spent, the Americans will be spending ten thousand times more. At this rate, the American economy will simply break down. They don’t have the dough and cannot afford it. Keeping up will mean bankrupting the Treasury faster.
The Americans will revolt when they become the new pauper of the 21st Century. They will not believe that they cannot afford to buy cheap Chinese made toys for Christmas. When that day comes, which is very soon, they will break up into several independent states.
China should just keep pushing the Americans to bankrupt themselves. That’s the way to do it.
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16 comments:
As far as inflating goes the Chinese are as bad or perhaps even WORSE than the US.
The monetary battle for the last 20 or so years has been between China's currency peg, and the US Fed's ability to print USD's.
Bernanke has made it quite clear that he'll print to prevent or cure any financial crisis. Remember: the man has made his reputation on money printing -- he has published papers and dissertations on it. He is, an academic.
So in that way, Chinese Christmas toys will always be cheap -- at least for sometime yet.
China like a low Yuan, America likes a higher Yuan. China prints to keep the Yuan low. America prints and the Yuan rises, straining the peg. China has to respond by printing some more, risking a blow-out in the property and equity markets, as well as price inflation.
In the meantime, other Asian state see their currencies rise relative to the USD -- they start easing to bring the values down.
The "wars" have already begun -- The Currency Wars, and it is a war where many will lose painfully. The biggest losers are the average citizens. The biggest winners are the states and central banks.
The US Fed is now the largest owner of US Treasuries -- no longer China. You want to short US Treasuries? Go ahead. Bernanke will just print money to buy them up, and you'll be trading what was once at least some kind of "asset" for banana money.
This currency war is bad for the US, but having much more fragile capital and production structures, it could devastate China and unravel decades of spectacular growth and progress.
Worse case scenario: Civil unrest in China leading to civil war and a break-up of the country into independent states (like Russia).
This strategic doctrine now espoused and brainstormed in Chinese think tanks is called the "light a match to attract a fire engine" gambit.
Tell the world what you've got. The Americans sit up startled and becomes agitated. The next move they'll do will be to announce what Gates said as reported today:
"They clearly have the potential to put some of our capabilities at risk and we have to pay attention to them. We have to respond appropriately with our own programmes."
In layman speak, he is announcing an arms race when the perceived adversary is just bringing themselves up to speed and not overtaking the US!
And he lied when he said that he was not aware whether China's anti-ship ballistic missile was operational yet. It sure as hell is already harnessed to mobile launch pads deployed all over the country and guided by China's own GPS satellite system pin pointed to any enemy carrier battle group within a 1,500 km. radius of the Mainland China coastline.
More theatrics is to come. He expressed "some questions about how stealthy" the Chinese fighter is compared to the American version. Well, Mr. Gates, you will know certainly when this not so stealthy contraption lands on your front lawn!
Don't laugh but when the Americans become the paupers, children in China may just play with cheap imported toys and christmas decorations Made In USA.
Hehe. :o)
From your writings, I gather You must be a very proud Chinese of Singapore.
Proud because You're Chinese but You love the Americans so much that You kept reminding them that China is fast becoming a big threat. That China is breaking their rice bowls, btw the angmos dont eat from bowls. If the angmos use bowls and chopsticks then I can at least agree with You that China is winning. Not with a Chinese like You and me not knowing how to blog in Chinese, wat a shame and disappointment!
If the Angmos were wise, other than English(Language), all other languages would have gone the way of the Dodo Bird. The bowl and chopstick would have became museum pieces. The Chinese and all other Races would hav became bananas.
The stupid americans did not study and learn from their forefathers, the Brits, whose empire collapsed militarily. BUT won big in cultural conversions in the arts, fashions, culture and language.
The world is proud of the english language, christianity, free sex, they love to visit london, paris, new york and milan.
Ask your chinese compatriots to go china and see their responses! Yuks are all You can expect.
The Americans and the rest of the world are unknowingly being conquered by the backward(as used by most modern humanity) Africans.
The Africans are peace loving when they have enough foods and their passions are to make love(sex) when the tummies are filled. Before making loves, they must dance to start the tantric love making process. After making love, they rest and wake up to look for the next meal and repeat the cycle like all other living species do.
That's the winning formula, back to nature back to the beginning.
That's how living beings should live, the most natural way and the most alluring.
Start making love man!
History goes in cycles. At one time they were going to China, then to the Americas and Europe. We are now seeing signs of Europeans going to China, learning Chinese.
Whichever nation will survive the current crisis of greed, fast bucks and less work is yet to see. The Western culture has reigned supreme for several centuries until Asians want to call themselves westerners and feel ashame to be Asians.
The tussle between the US and China and printing banana currencies must be backed up by real production. The Chinese are producing a lot at very low cost. Their cost of living is low and consumption is also low.
When one consumes more than one produces, there is a mismatch. Printing banana notes cannot go on indefinitely.
To anon 10:14,
I don't think anyone is reminding the Americans of the China threat. China is no threat to the Americans in all fields. The Americans are superior in many areas over the Chinese.
The Chinese threat is an American paranoia. Even in the 50s and 60s, the Americans were deceiving themselves of the invasion by the yellow hordes. Today, their fear is the declining influence and dominance of their unchallenged empire. And they are doing everything they can to undermine China and planting the seed of anti China in the minds of their former conquered people of Western colonialism.
And they are talking nonsense everyday. They spent more than half of the world's military budget in weapons and accusing other countries, particularly China, of an arms race when China spent only a fraction of what they spent.
It is such hypocrisies that are getting on the nerves of the awakening Asian minds. They no longer want to be fed with nonsensical American and western slanted views and propaganda.
To question the American media and views is in another way to tell the Americans not to take the silly Asians for granted anymore. They are no longer dumb.
The Mainland Chinese are unfazed by the Americans.
And
there are Chinese in Sin, Oz and elsewhere scoffing at the cowboys.
let us enjoy watching their(US) shootings in the comforts of our homes and hotels to some.
Mind the Singaporean Chinese.
Hanyu Pinyin is bastardizing the Chinese Race!
Many written scripts are bastardised by using the alphabets. It has its pros and cons.
The world would be a better place with only one language and one script. But some idiot decided that the human race must not speak in one tongue and we have such a mess today.
It is noticed that although the Koreans have their own written scripts, which they are apparently very proud of, big honchos in the Korean conglomerates seem to take greater pride in displaying their name and title display signs on their office desks in the Chinese characters. I think the Chinese characters project that aura of refineness and dignity which no other languages can match.
Just wait for the US to self destruct.
This is not the US of old, with huge budget surpluses to maintain hundreds of bases all over the world, and full complements of warships and submarines to patrol the seven seas. This is a country that is now bankrupt many times over, with debts that can never be repaid by any definition in the book.
They will go the way of the British Empire and more recently the Russian Federation. It is a matter of time.
I do not believe the rest of the world can be really that dumb to keep on lending money to them, knowing that the number of additional QEs on the horizon will decimate their holdings of US$ debts.
We might think that only China will be more likely to disintegrate with unrest leading to civil war and breaking up like Russia. China's history has been full of that and they have also endured numerous civil wars, but they are still one unfragmented country, with several thousand years of history behind them.
anon 416
In the world of geo-politics, being “good” is not the quality which will enable you to “win”.
In recent time, the US Federal Govt has emerged as the “best” at being “bad”.
Yes, the US will collapse but it won’t be anytime soon – perhaps not even in any of our lifetimes. And before it collapses, it’s downfall will WREAK HAVOC on the rest of the world – everywhere from the Middle East, to Asia, to South America…severe economic and financial dislocations. It will be UGLY.
US "self-destruct"? Get real, it won't. It would be "accompanied" by mass destruction and social upheaval everywhere.
China may have better economic fundamentals, but they are hopeless in the game of geo-politics. i.e. they don’t have the guile and cunning to match the US.
Remember the US of A was founded by tax dodgers, pirates, outlaws, terrorists and assassins – all of them from laissez-faire capitalist, wealthy, educated backgrounds... and they were ARMED and skilled at guerilla warfare – that was the spirit of their revolution against a foreign invader and tyrant – The British Crown.
The best China can do is invest money here and there, buy a mine or an oil well…whereas the US gets right into the state’s architecture and makes the country a client state of the US, where they can build US airbases and defense installations.
Can you imagine China going to say, Myanmar, and setting up an airbase there? You have to be nuts! Everyone (mostly in Asia itself) will lose their shit – the US won’t even have to say a word.
With regard to civil war – keeping the greater part of China is not the issue. I agree -- China has had many periods of civil unrest.
The point is when you are having a civil war, you ain’t producing shit. Your capital is being eaten up, your people are dying and/ or fighting and your economy is in the toilet. After the war it can take several decades to rebuild the capital and productive structure to even begin earn revenue again. And if you are broke because of the war, you will need “assistance”.
*That* is the real danger of civil war in China – all their hard work, savings, productivity, emergence of a middle class, and spectacular economic growth: KAPUT.
Matilah,
The European Americans did not fight against a foreign invader. They were the invaders.
They mutineed against their masters and took over the invaded Injun land.
Redbean Sir:
me just like to say that it has been most enjoyable to here daily.
You and your commenters here have been most entertaining with You as the Main Protagonist. Do write more for us to enjoy!
May I wish Everyone here and Readers have a Wonderful Lunar New Year Of The Rabbit.
Keep Yourselves healthy and happy.
patriot
No lah, their forefathers robbed the Injuns at gunpoint and canons and decimated them(Red Indian).
What can you expect from pirates, outlaws, terrorist, tax dodgers, assassins and smugglers?
Same with the Australians who decimated the aborigines. All were criminals deported from British prisons.
They only talk in one language, from the barrel of a gun.
Dear redbean
I humbly suggest that you read up on Communist China economic problems befiore u embark on such a bold venture to sing praise of those commies!
Thank you
U can start fr here
http://mpettis.com/
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