3/10/2014

MH370 – No news is good news




To all those who are suffering from having loved ones in the flight MH370, the waiting for news on what really happened to the aircraft and the fate of the passengers is like a living nightmare. Every moment, every second is pain and agony. In despair and desperation, let there be hope. As long as there is no confirmation that the aircraft had crashed or exploded in mid air, as long as there is no evidence of any debris in the sea or on land, there is a possibility that the aircraft is safe somewhere with all its passengers and crew.

The possibility of the aircraft being hijacked and flown to an unknown destination cannot be ruled out, until such a time when the wreckage is found and confirmed. Let me hazard to try to create a possible scenario of what could have happened given the sparse information available. This is just a theory and could be proven totally wrong when the truth is out. Assuming that this is a hijack, it is a very professional job done with meticulous planning and expertise in aviation knowledge.

At the moment many have in mind that this is likely to be the works of the Uighurs or the same group of people that struck at Kunming Railway Station. I would like to differ from this view given the complexities of this operation that is showing all the signs of familiarity in the operations of air traffic, flight path, aircraft and radar performances. The people involved in this operation cannot be unsophisticated Uighurs, or if indeed committed by them, they must have received professional training and technical support from experts in insurgency. And there are a handful of western expert organisations that could conduct this operation the way it was done.

The first point to note is the location where the aircraft went missing. It was at the edges of both Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control zones and also at the limits of their radar coverage. It was like a no man’s land or space. The second point is that the aircraft could fly east or west in airspace that are not under radar surveillance. The western route would be the Gulf of Thailand and at the fringes of Malaysia and Bangkok air traffic control zones. Towards the east into the South China Sea is wide open space, away from Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines air traffic control zones. The aircraft could fly at normal cruise level undetected. The third point is the lost of RT and radar contact in almost an instance, indicating that it was likely a deliberate act to get out of radar surveillance, to shake loose it trails, and this could only be done by diving down and flying low level. This is a reflection of the intimate knowledge of radar performance and how to avoid radar surveillance. Once out of radar range, the aircraft could then return to its cruising flight level and on its way unknown to anyone. Fourth, the fact that it broke away just an hour from take off meant that it would have another 5 to 6 hours of fuel left and can fly off to a chosen destination quite a distance away, a lot of room to play with. The islands in southern Philippines look very attractive.

What could happen inside the MH 370 prior to the hijacking could be the most unsuspecting to the crew members. The hijackers could put the crew at ease with things familiar and lower their guards before crashing into the cockpit and immediately restrained the pilot and co pilot. They could even be invited and shown around the cockpit if they could win the confidence of the crew members. Taken by surprise, the pilot and co pilot had no chance to send out any distress signal and became captives of the hijackers.

At this point there were two possibilities. The hijackers could have been trained to fly the aircraft and simply took control from the pilot. Alternatively, the pilot could be under duress to do as the hijackers wished, and flew the aircraft as commanded. And the aircraft disappeared from the radars of Malaysia and Vietnam, destination unknown, but safe.

The intent of this hijacking is still unclear but could be narrowed down to a few possibilities. One obvious objective is to make demands from China by the separatist group in Xinjiang. This is top in the list of speculations. It is less likely to be targeting Malaysia as the dominant active terrorist groups are not hostile to Malaysia at this moment. It could also be groups that are supported by state agencies that are hostile to China and intent to give China some severe headache to deal with.

Hopefully this is the scenario and the passengers and crew are still safe and sound and waiting for the next chapter of this drama to unfold. And this could be the most optimistic picture for those hoping that their loved ones are still alive. Would there be any announcement from a terrorist group to confirm that this is indeed what the whole mystery is all about? Any other scenario would likely be a confirmation of an unfolding tragedy.

Let there be hope that things could still turn out not as bad as it is now. The fact that the black boxes of MH370 are not beeping is a good sign that all is well. This is just an imagination of what could have happened but could be furthest from the truth.

Pray all is well.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hahahahahahaha RB.

I think u are the only one so far who has written such a scenario. And I have been following the case very closely.

Very rich imagination! Or is it letting your imagination run wild?

And even those experts may not have thought of it!

Anonymous said...

If that is the case, how come till now no terrorist group make their demands leh?

What are they waiting for? How long they want to wait?

Hahahahahahaha.

Anonymous said...

The following report is even better than RB one. Hahahahahaha.

New Straits Times
Monday, Mar 10, 2014
SEPANG - A shaman, claiming to be able to locate the missing MH370 jetliner, offered his expertise to help the authorities in their search.

Datuk Mahaguru Ibrahim Mat Zin, known as Raja Bomoh Sedunia Nujum VIP and 1Malaysia Corporate Bomoh said he suspects the missing aircraft was hijacked by elves (buniyan)

"According to my vision,a large black figure believed to be an eagle was seen flying over the plane after which the plane plunged.

" I have been using my bubu (traditional fishing tool) and bamboo scopes to see the situation there, and I saw that the aircraft is currently suspended in mid air," he said.

Ibrahim who claimed to have solved cases like the highland towers, mystery of villa Nabila, Mona Fandy and others, attracted a large crowd during his 'seeing' demonstration at the international arrival hall in Kuala Lumpur International Airport.

Anonymous said...

Terrorist groups do not make announcement hurriedly. They would time their announcement to their advantage.

Anonymous said...

http://www.naturalnews.com/044244_Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370_vanished.html#

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Refer to the link by anon 12:49. The author is ignorant of radar envelop, and aircraft cannot be detected when outside it. In this case my theory still holds.

The aircraft descended rapidly to low level and outside the radar envelop, thus 'disappeared' and can change course without being seen and tracked.

This is nothing new if you know about radar performance and how attacking aircraft would fly low level to avoid detection by radar.

Matilah_Singapura said...

>> Pray all is well.

Nothing fails more spectacularly than prayer. As if talking to an invisible space-fairy is going to change the physical reality. Grow the fuck up lah.

"Pray: To ask the laws of the universe to be annulled on behalf of a single petitioner confessedly unworthy."
-- Ambrose Bierce

Terror group Chinese Martyrs Brigade claims missing flight was ‘payback’, officials label it hoax

Of course the Chinese will call it a hoax. They have their "save face" bullshit which they'll defend by denial if necessary...to the death.

It is rare that we get events which are "perfect storms" -- i.e. several factors all coming together and integrating to achieve a result which is so "perfect"; so "precise".

MH370 -- A Perfect Storm? Consider the factors:

1. Fucking slack-arse Malaysian security, tidak-apa bo chap attitude

2. Probably a corrupt or corruptible system -- easily compromised to place explosives or other saboteur devices on board the aircraft without detection.

3. Radical religious group highly motivated to cause violent destruction to highlight their cause.

4. National governments which are in blatant DENIAL of their social issues, security holes, and a very false belief that "We are the government. We are SUPREME"

These factors all add up and integrate to form the basis of a PERFECT STORM for really bad people to do really bad things.

...meanwhile in the real world of real people with real families, bonds...they are being torn apart psychologically and emotionally having recieved A BIG FAT ZERO from those who are directly responsible for the safety of ordinary people going about their ordinary peaceful lives.

Fuck the governments. All of them.

The said...

Redbean, I think you watched too many movies. But most movies are quite plausible.

/// It was at the edges of both Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control zones and also at the limits of their radar coverage. It was like a no man’s land or space. The second point is that the aircraft could fly east or west in airspace that are not under radar surveillance. ///

There are always overlap of radar coverage among air traffic control centres.

/// The third point is the lost of RT and radar contact in almost an instance, indicating that it was likely a deliberate act to get out of radar surveillance, to shake loose it trails, and this could only be done by diving down and flying low level. ///

You think this is a fighter aircraft or a stealth fighter?

/// And the aircraft disappeared from the radars of Malaysia and Vietnam, destination unknown, but safe. ///

This comes from a very lousy script writer. Singapore's LORADS probably can track the region in question. Not all the aircrew are in the cockpit. Are the flight attendants are incapacitated? No alarm from them. What about the more than 200 passengers? All their handphones confiscated before any ONE of them able to text or call their loved ones?

Aiyah, redbean, want to write a movie script must also write realistically mah.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi The, for the technical aspects of radar performance I am speaking from experience. I think I am equally an expert in this area and find the comments of some of the experts elementary. I flown before, and I worked in a radar station and had done SAR, not Sars, but Search and Rescue.

The range of radar coverage is limited both by technology and the earth's curvature unless you are using satellite or airborne radar like the Orion or our AWACs. The Air traffic don't use such equipment.

You don't need a stealth aircraft to creep under radar cover. Any aircraft can go under radar cover, just be flying low. It is the blind spot of long range radar.

Air traffic radars are meant to look high except those short range ones covering the airport for landing and take off. Most radars of air traffickers are short or medium range.

Anonymous said...

The hijackers could be of the same belief and they became very comfortable and pally with one another. So can invite them into the cockpit for chit chat without knowing they were hijackers.

The said...

redbean,

What I am saying is - what happened to all the passengers? Are they are dead or knocked unconscious? Why no one contact their loved ones. Where do you park the aircraft - inside your garage? Which padi field to land on? Surely some farmers will see it.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

If you have a few armed hijackers in the plane you think anyone brave enough to send a message out? All their mobiles could be confiscated.

The question, how could they bring in their firearms? If there are no weapons, the passengers could overpower them. The news of 5 passengers checking in their luggages but did not board. What were in their luggages? And if they are part of the gang, that means there are quite a number of them in the flight.

Where is the aircraft? Could have ditched in the shallow waters of some small islands in the Philippines. This is one possibility. So far there is no signs of explosion which means that these are not suicide bombers and they want to stay alive and the passengers as hostages. Just a possibility.

As I said, if this is a hijack, they are very professional and have everything worked out to their destination.

This is a theory I am working on. It may all be wrong. The aircraft could crash somewhere, on land or in the sea. At this moment no one knows.

Anonymous said...

Let's wish that Rb's Theory is the Case and that all in the Plane are alive and helping each others to survive.
It needs miracle for a large aircraft to land safely without proper runway and guidance.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Ditching in the coastal sea is an option for emergency landing. The aircraft could break up but if properly handled, the passengers and crew have a high survival rate.

If this is a carefully planned operation, the hijackers could be trained to do just a landing and there will be supporting member waiting at the site.

So far there are signs that it is very well executed, from boarding to its disappearance and the pilot and air crew did not have a clue what was going on till it happened. I am sure the last radio contact with the aircraft would be normal.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

The Malaysian confirmed they are Iranians and one of their friends hosted them in KL and booked their air tickets.

The thing is that they may not be the hijackers but people sneaking around using fake passports, though the likelihood is high.

Virgo 49 said...

Pliot and co-pilot needs to pee also. Sat in first three rows near cockpit and saw them many times came out to use outside toilet.

So opportune time, hijackers moved forward and ended in cockpit.

The beginning of a hijacking.

Virgo 49 said...

Now calculating how much ransom for each nationalities.

Hopefully this is the truth and all passengers and crew are safe. Just meet their demands.

However, do not summon the pinoy commandos and the singapore special operations command to storm the aircraft or else all the passengers and crew including the troopers would be dead except the hijackers.

See the defence minister of Malaysia wearing the admiral hat. They just simply loved this type of drama so they can put on their best uniforms and pretend to be the legendary hang tuahs.

Anonymous said...

They have disowned Hang Tuahs. They commissioned an archaelogical study of European experts to confirm the existence of Hang Tuah and his brothers only to be told they were Chinese.

Now Hang Tuah and his brothers were no longer a part of their history.

Virgo 49 said...

Ok bro, no more hang tuahs, now hang jebats.

tune in to cna on their news conference now.

look like a circle.

joking and laughing all the way.

asking trival questions

Anonymous said...

No Hang Tuah, no Hang Je Bat, no Hang Le Kiu. They are all Hainanese, the Hans.

Matilah_Singapura said...

Some families are claiming that their missing relatives cell phones are ringing. At least one man claims his missing relative's status shows "online" on a social network.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2578020/Why-cellphones-missing-Malaysian-Airlines-passengers-ringing-Family-members-claim-loved-ones-smartphones-active.html