MH 370 – All the false theories

 An article in the internet reported on several of theories that have been circulating in the media. I have listed them down and discredit most of them as spurious and not sensible.

1. SOURCE: Chris Goodfellow, who describes himself as an experienced pilot.
THE THEORY: Goodfellow has posted on Google Plus that he believed the pilot on MH370 may have been heading to the Malaysian resort island of Langkawi to land after the transponders were knocked out by a fire on board.
"The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours,'' Goodfellow wrote.

My comment: There is no urgency to make an emergency landing just because the transponder is not working unless there is a big fire. If that is the case, the pilot would have all the time in the world to make his emergency calls, switch on the emergency squawks, and the passengers too would be able to make some calls out. This is obviously false.

2. SOURCE: Desmond Ross, an Australian commercial pilot and aviation security expert.

THE THEORY: Captain Ross offers a similar theory to Goodfellow's. He said the aircraft might have depressurised for some reason, possibly due to an explosion causing a hole in the fuselage.

"The pilots quickly recognise the need to descend,'' said Captain Ross, who conducted a security review of Kuala Lumpur's international airport in 2005.

My comment: False. Same as above.

3. SOURCE: Keith Ledgerwood, who described himself as a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast from the US.

THE THEORY: This theory was based on the premise that someone hijacked the plane.
Ledgerwood said MH370 could have switched off its radar, then "shadowed" another plane - Singapore Airlines flight number 68 en route from Singapore to Barcelona - before landing north of India or Afghanistan.

"It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace," wrote Ledgerwood on Tumblr.

My comment: Sound logical and possible. But the part when the pilot, supposedly trying so hard to avoid detection but flew into radar zones to be seen by everyone makes this theory a suspect. On the one hand the pilot wanted to hide but then exposed himself naked for all to see.

4. SOURCE: Described in The Independent newspaper.

THE THEORY: The plane may have been hijacked and flown to a Taliban base.
The Independent has reported that full diplomatic permissions were being sought in order to rule out the theory that the plane could have flown under the radar to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan that were not under government control.

My comment: No aircraft can fly through India and Pakistan without being picked up on radars.

5. SOURCE: Investigators

THE THEORY: Authorities were investigating whether pilot or passenger suicide could explain the plane's disappearance.

There was a historical precedent for this.

6. SOURCE: An email to journalists claiming to be from the Chinese Martyrs' Brigade.

THE THEORY: A shadowy group called the Chinese Martyrs' Brigade claimed responsibility for the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in an email to journalists in China.

The encrypted email read: ''You kill one of our clan, we will kill 100 of you as pay back.''

My comment: Too little to work on. Probably a hoax. If it is real, there would be followup comments and claims of victory or success.

7. SOURCE: Malaysian police were said to be investigating this theory.

THE THEORY: An explosive may have been hidden in the plane's huge cargo of exotic fruit.

Malaysian officials have said that the only cargo on MH370 was a load of mangosteens, a fruit popular in south-east Asia.

Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said that "three to four tonnes" of mangosteens were on the aircraft

My comment: Possible to have explosives smuggled into the cargo haul. But where is the explosion? No signs of any so far. No wreckages, no debris, no black box signals.

8. My Theory. Aircraft was hijacked by a professional team of experts and flown to some uninhabited or sparsely inhabited islands like those in the southern Philppines. Gan Island is also a possibility as it has an airstrip and not heavily populated. A gag order could be imposed on the islanders not to tell the world. In the case of the Philippines, the pilot would have to ditch the aircraft in the coastal seas. So far the black boxes have been silent. And so were the passengers.

On the other hand, the whole thing could be a very simple and baffling incident like the aircraft landed somewhere in a Malaysian state. But of course everyone on board is either dead or over powered and cannot make contact with the world.


Anonymous said...

On Number 4. No airplanes can fly past India & Pakistan without being detected by radar.

India already said they switch on their radar on a "need basis" because is too costly. In such a highly executed hijacking case, it is possible to be carried out in connivance with a rogue state like Pakistan. Afterall, they did harbor Osama Bin Laden all these time while charading to the world they knew nothing of it. So I wouldn't discount the collaboration of a lawless state.

Anonymous said...

Actually hor, sometimes countries also don't want to share their radar info lah, for good reasons.

For instance, just like the Mats in Butterworth Penang, they may see it on their military radar but do nothing, eg no fighter jets sent to intercept it. Very embarrasing, tio bo?

So like that how to share their radar info, u tell me lah?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

If India cannot afford to operate their military radars, that is a separate issue. There are many air traffic radars along the way to pick up signals from an aircraft. And air traffickers would query as it would pose flight hazards and risk collision with other aircraft.

Anonymous said...

Tiok. To share radar data is like showing their (ugly) backside.

Unless got no choice like the Mats, who want to show their backside, u tell me lah?

Anonymous said...


All false theories, I agree. But what about No. 8?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Can you tell me what's wrong with No 8?

Anonymous said...

Any possibility of the plane in langkawi, nicobar, aceh or any part of western sumatra, including lake toba?

Anonymous said...

You're going to have to eat your words. No 1 is most probably what happened: electrical fire knocking out the acars, and other comm eqpt. So the pilots turned back towards Langkawi, but may eventually have been overcome by fumes. The plane kept flying till it ran out of fuel.
Mark my words, that's what they will find