India Number One .... in population

 By end of 2023, India would be the world's number one most populous nation, over taking China. China would become second to India. And India would have the most young people in a country, a key factor that can turn India into a super power. Though this may be a big task to keep hundreds of millions of young people employed, India has nothing to worry about.

Singapore would be there to offer a helping hand. Singapore needs talents and wants to increase its population to 20 million, or at least this is in the thought of some talented Singaporean thinkers. Having a big populations is always a good thing for tiny Singapore, without any downside. Big population in India is a welcoming blessing to Singapore. Singapore is very happy to welcome all the Indian talents, all the unemployed Indian talents, to help no talent Singapore to keep its economy bustling and to stay as a first world country. It would be a win win formula.

At least the property prices would stay high and go higher, even for HDB leasers or owners. Now that HDB prices have hit S1m, now HDB owners can look forward to $2m as the next target. And the construction industry will continue to boom and the cycle would even be bigger and last longer. And why not, when there are also many Indian labours willing to come here to help to build Singapore into a never ending building boom.

And Indians have a natural advantage. They can speak English, which is going to be, or likely to be a criteria for citizenship. The political scene would be very lively with politics as a natural talent in Indians. There may be even Indian political parties formed by new Indian citizens. And Singapore would no longer have the perennial angst of 'Singapore not ready for Indian PM' when Indians become a majority here. Meritocracy would be institutionalised and practised to perfection. No more entitlement mentality that one can have political appointments in waiting, without competition. And those that cannot speak good English would look like ducks out of water.

The special symbiotic relations between Singapore and India would enter a new strategic level for the good of Singapore. Singapore would be prosperous for another century with so many Indian talents available and happily wanting to come to Singapore and Singapore opening its legs wide wide to welcome them. CECA is a win win formula for India and Singapore.  Singapore can have all the Indian talents and India can export its unemployed to Singapore and its unemployment solved.

Oh, it would be good news for Singaporean Grab drivers too, if they still can afford to buy a car to drive the talented new citizens around. Special courses can be designed to upgrade their skills in handling luggages, opening car doors, keep the cars clean, how to greet customers and learn how to chat with the customers etc etc and how to improve chances of bigger tips.

China must be self reliant on everything

China must be self reliant on everything, and I mean everything. Never, ever rely on the USA, the West or Japan. What the USA and the West are doing to China, especially since Trump became President, is actually a blessing in disguise, as it is forcing the Chinese to go their own way in chip manufacturing as well. It is the push that is making the Chinese move faster, makes them do things better and produce things even cheaper than the West, by making chip manufacturing the priority for China going forward. Who is competing with the USA and the West now in EV, solar panels, car batteries and consumer products? And guess who will be competing with the Chip manufacturers in the USA, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea going forward?
We actually did not stop to realise that the Germans were able to reach the pinnacle of their industrial might, all based on and built upon the availability of cheap energy from Russia. That is one fact that had been trivalised as all the talk is German ingenuity that brought them to being the biggest economy in the EU. Now we are seeing the real picture with Russian cheap energy flowing East. Like the Germans, Chinese ingenuity can also match the Germans and cheap energy from Russia is fueling an even more competitive China than ever before. Can the EU now compete with China, India and others with energy so expensive for Europe?

The USA and the West had attempted to isolate the Chinese in many fields, but have failed to destroy China. Chip sanctioning will be the same. Five years down the road and we shall see the carnage in the chip manufacturing competition in the West, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, once the Chinese market is no longer available.

Now, there is a joke on social media regarding Macron's China trip. Macron could not visit China without his 'mummy' following him to keep a watch on his movements. The USA told his 'mummy' aka Ursula to go with Macron and keep a watch on him. And she insisted on going with Macron, who could not refuse, unlike what Olaf Scholz did to him when Scholz said no way you are following me. So much talk about EU unity when they do not even trust each other. Macron is said to be the weakest French President ever, totally under the USA's control.

It was later reported that to prevent his 'mummy' spoiling the show, Xi invited Macron to tea without his 'mummy' in tow. And they talked in private, making some important deals that the USA is particularly unhappy with. We know about the Airbus helicopter deal, but one big largely missing on MSM deal, was the US$500 million subsea internet cable to rival the USA. Once this is thrashed out between France and China, China will start the construction and many are saying that this will be completed way ahead of the USA rival project, knowing the Chinese expertise in infrastructure building. The only proviso is whether Macron can hang on long enough or subject to a regime change, in which case a stooge would be installed to kill the project, like the Germans did with Nord Stream 2. China must not be too trusting with Macron anyway. Whites are whites and they have forked tongues.

Why America’s big companies keep getting bigger

The irony of the Silicon Valley Bank saga is now complete. The crisis started inside the American tech sector’s favourite bank, but the government rescue has benefited Big Tech the most. As calm returns to the market, fuelled by megacap tech stocks, investors are naturally relieved. They need to be aware, however, of where a system built on bailouts is heading.

Even two decades ago, capitalism was marked by boom-bust cycles that disrupted incumbents and created space for upstarts. While still a ubiquitous word, “disruption” is finally fading as churn in the market stalls. The big beneficiaries of post-crisis rescues are big, established companies — and this is not how capitalism is supposed to work.

After the government stepped in on March 10 to rescue SVB, megacap stocks had one of their best runs ever. Today, all of the top five US companies are tech businesses and together they represent more than 20 per cent of the stock market — the highest concentration since the 1960s and more than double the figure a decade ago.

The decline in competitive churn is a side-effect of the rescue culture that has been growing since the 1980s. Ever since the US Federal Reserve stepped in to prop up the market after the 1987 crash, the stock market has grown dramatically, from half the size of the US economy to two times larger at its peak in 2020. One might assume an expanding market should create room for more churn, but no, not in America.

The number of US companies that remain in the top 10 from one decade to the next has risen steadily, from just three in 1990 to six at the end of the 2010s. And while churn has weakened in the US, it remains relatively robust across much of the world. From the start to the end of the 2010s, just two companies remained on the top 10 list in Japan, four in Europe, four in China and two in the global list, Microsoft and Alphabet.

Today, the top five US companies are bigger than the next five by the largest margin since the early 1980s. The top two alone account for nearly half the market cap of the top 10, up from 35 per cent at the start of the pandemic. Apple is now number one, and is nearly six-times larger than UnitedHealth Group, in 10th place. Three decades ago, Exxon was number one but just over twice the size of the tenth company, BellSouth.

Competing explanations for the rise of Big Tech include the natural advantage of size on digital networks, where companies can add customers at negligible added cost. But “network effects” can’t explain why three out of every four US industries — and not just in the tech industry — have been consolidating in the hands of a few companies. Sweeping government rescues that benefit incumbents can.

Anonymous

ROC, Taiwan - When treason is conducted openly

Historically, the Chinese history had been tainted with traitors and treasons whenever a dynasty fell. The traitors from within would conspire and plot with foreign powers or a new power centre to bring down the incumbent dynasty. The fall of Song to the Mongolians, the fall of Ming, the fall of Qing and the invasion of ROC were due to the acts of traitors from within.

All traitors in Chinese history ended up in disgrace, in shame and some executed. Being a traitor to the Motherland was a most hated and despicable act for a Chinese, and they were called 'han jian' 汉奸. The shame would befall not only the individual, but the families and clans for generations to come. No one wants to be associate with such a person of family.

What is happening in ROC Taiwan is quite strange. The treasonable acts of the traitors, to work with foreign powers to break away a part of China, and probably cripple China by joining forces with foreign powers to attack China, are all unpardonable. But the traitors are doing it openly and with arrogance, without shame or guilt, never think that they are 'han jians'. And they have the support of some sections of the Taiwan Chinese.

China tolerated this development for several decades when it was militarily weaker than the foreign powers working with the traitors to break Taiwan from the Motherland. Also, the ethnicity of many of the traitors have been called to question. Are they really Chinese, or are they mixed blood, or are they Japanese. Their ethnicity may be a key factor in their attempt to break away from China, even becoming a semi colony of Japan or the USA. They did not see anything disgraceful or humiliating for betraying China as traitors of the Motherland.

Breaking away from the Motherland is a major act of treason but could be seen as justifiable for the selfish interests of some individuals with ambitions of grandeur, like the warlords of the Republic of China days. For selfish reasons, some may not even mind being semi colony of Japan or the US. What is most dangerous and totally unacceptable is to work with foreign powers like Japan and the USA to bring down China and the Chinese Civilisation. 

The Chinese Civilisation under the new leadership of PRC has risen to become a respectable superpower, wiping away the century of shame when invaded and almost colonised by the foreigners. This great contribution by the leaders of the new China cannot be ignored as the task was near impossible to many Chinese who have resigned to the fate of being the downtrodden, the despised and pariah race, ridiculed and condemned by the western powers. For China to stand up and wipe away the smears and mud thrown at the Chinese Civilisation, and to stand up as the best among equals over such a short span of time is simply remarkable and a miracle. It is so sad that there is still a minority of the Chinese people in Taiwan and overseas, as well as a very few in China that could not appreciate what the rise of China means to them, their fate and dignity in the world. 

Today, with China's rise and the revitalisation of the Chinese Civilisaton, the Chinese are now a respectable Civilisation, no longer the Sick Man of Asia. It would be an unpardonable sin for any Chinese, especially those in Taiwan, to want to destroy the Motherland and to let the foreigners to despise the Chinese people as a good for nothing, no talent, no pride, and no dignity people again. Should China fall, the fate and well being of the Taiwan Chinese would be no better than the Chinese in the last hundred years. At best they would be a third class people living in a semi colony of Japan or the USA.

China must be resolute and firm to deal with the traitors as traitors, nothing more, nothing less, to ensure that the Motherland is intact, its sovereignty protected and its people continue to enjoy a better life with respect and dignity. The Chinese people in ROC Taiwan must also rise up to the occasion to be recognised as a part of the proud Chinese Civilisation. Their future and good life, to be respected in the whole world as Chinese people, are inseparately tied to the fate of China being a strong and powerful country...not being a semi colony of foreign powers that pretend to support them but despised them as traitors to their Motherland and Civilisation, and only exploiting them temporarily for the selfish interests of foreign powers. No one, not even the Americans or Japanese, would respect the Taiwan Chinese if they are traitors of their Motherland.

Think what is happening to the fate of TSMC. They would face the same fate, and worst, if they don't wake up. TSMC is just a pawn of the Americans and dispensable and would be eaten up or disposed of by the Americans when it is no longer useful to the Americans. TSMC is simply pathetic.

US China tech war - Who needs who more?

 US-China tech war: Without advanced chips, can China’s smartphone industry survive?

This is the headline of an article in South China Morning Post. This is the kind of  questions that the anti China camp likes to ask, with the intent and hope that China would fail, just like Gordon Chang everyday praying that China would collapse. What is the reality today is that many things and issues are interconnected and is not a simple black and white problem. Related to this question is another question, can the American chips companies and industry survive without the biggest consumer market, ie China? Who are the American chips companies going to sell their chips to without China? How are they going to expand their business or even to maintain the present scale of production when the biggest buyer is taken out?

It is like a chicken and egg situation. Which comes first, the manufacturers of chips or the consumers of chips? Can both exist without the other?

China is having a temporary set back at the moment with the American sanctions. There would be some chips that would not be available to China. The good thing is that the mobile phone industry has hit a plateau and would stay at this level for a while. So the demand for higher capacity chips would not be that critical for now. In fact there is now a huge surplus of chips and the inventory is going to kill all the chips manufacturers in America.

The shortage of some high end chips is only transcient and China would work towards producing its own chips and this would be overcome. China also has a lot of patents and could use them when the time comes to take on the Americans, to hit back at the Americans, including rare earth and other parts in the supply chain.

But what would not change is the consumer market. China is still the biggest consumer market for the chips manufacturers and growing. There is no alternative to the Chinese market to dump the excess chips. The chips manufacturers need China more than China needs them. And in a year or two, China would be fully self sufficient in the chips it needs and could say good bye to all the American chips manufacturers and even chips making machine. And this day is coming very soon and the window for American chips manufacturers would be closed for good. Many are now sinking with the unsold inventory and could not find buyers. China is not going to buy even at rock bottom prices.

By then, what would happen to the American chips manufacturers? Who are they going to sell their chips to? The likely scenario, many would have to down scale and some would have to go out of business. China would then take over all their market shares. The odds are against the American chips manufacturers, thinking that they could strangle the Chinese phone makers. And their fate is being determined by the simplistic minds of the clowns in Washington, headed by a demented old President.

Good luck, American chips manufacturers. You have only a couple of years left before the curtain comes down on you. It is looking like a different version of the Ukraine War, trying to win it quickly but as the day passes, the more difficult it becomes, and failure becomes an absolute certainty. China would be the last man standing.