Cynical Investor’s take on my comments on opposition candidates and unity

After the rout of the 2015 GE, the political scene has quiet down by several hundred decibels. Only a few political commentators are left writing about local politics. The IPS did a big survey on the possible reasons for the collapse of the opposition camp in the GE with fairly similar conclusions as those coming out from the social media.

The two points that I made on opposition unity and rounding up of credible candidates are something practical to do but would not guarantee that they will win the next GE but would definitely put them in a much stronger position to take the PAP head on. How the opposition is going to form a coalition and what this coalition will be like is amorphous and there is no absolute formula for it. It would depend on the opposition leaders to work out what kind of coalition they would be comfortable with as each party and leaders would have very strong views on that. It may be a loser coalition, something like the Pakatan Rakyat of Malaysia when uncomfortable they may be about each other’s manifestos or objectives, there is still a common enemy to face. To propose or suggest a formula from anyone is premature and may not even be welcomed.

As for the credible candidates available today versus the loose cannons, let’s be polite and not to be too specific and personal. The credible opposition party leaders would know who are the better candidates to fish out from the mirky waters. It is not necessary that one must have a Ph D or be a lawyer or doctor to be a good politician or national leader. What is important is the heart must be in the right place, that the well being of Singaporeans must be the most important goal for whoever that wants to lead the country. Definitely you do not want pretenders or people that would sell out the interests of Singaporeans even if they are genius in their own fields.

The present loose opposition camp with all the talents scattered would not do. There are many good candidates appearing in the last GE. They did not lose because they were no good. Many were any time better than the PAP candidates. There were many factors and unknowns that shaped the result of the last GE. Many of the factors would not be around or would still have the same effects in the next GE. The PAP possibly have maxed out their advantages and political capital this round. When the political wind changes, the same batch of good opposition candidates could turn out to be winners. Good and bad, credible and not credible are relative. And in a GE there are many imponderables that would determine the final outcome.

What the opposition camp needs to do is to strengthen their position, regroup their forces to fight a better fight. How the voters would cast their votes, if all things are fair and equal, is anyone’s guess. No one has a solution that can ensure success for the opposition, not me, not any of the opposition leaders, not anyone. The opposition leaders must get working now and not to let time to slip by and wait for the wind to change. 4 years could pass at a wink and the new faces of the last election would be more matured and seasoned and could be better recognized by working for it from now till the next GE.

A GE is not just about the two weeks of campaigning. The campaigning starts now. The ground work starts now. The coalition work starts now. They need to build this up to be in time for the next GE. They did to do something more substantive to make a difference. Not doing anything is not an option. If the next GE is going to be the same, then it would be a waste of time for the opposition camp. They need to make things happen in the next GE by working for it now.

Nikkei Asian Review delirious about American adventure in the South China Sea

I just went through some articles in the Nikkei Asian Review and could not miss the trend of thoughts of the Japanese. They are delirious that a war between the US and China is in the offing. Here is a short article of the Japanese high expectation.

‘October 20, 2015 1:00 pm JST

US Third Fleet

115 naval vessels ready to help in west Pacific

KEN MORIYASU, Nikkei staff writer

TOKYO -- Vice Adm. Nora Tyson, the first female fleet commander in the history of the U.S. Navy, is responsible for the 115 vessels and 60,000 sailors that make up the powerful Third Fleet. Although the fleet's area of responsibility lies in the eastern Pacific -- an area extending from the international date line near Hawaii to the U.S. West Coast -- Tyson said she is ready to deploy her ships to the tension-prone western Pacific to assist the Seventh Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Japan.’

 

The key question is whether the Americans would be crazy enough to be nudged into a war with China over Chinese islands 10 thousands miles from their occupied Indian territories. By the look of things, the Americans may be tempted to be trigger happy with their overwhelming naval forces and fire power.

China should send a message to Obama that all the DF21s and DF26s anti ship and anti aircraft carrier missiles are on alert and will welcome the American warships with open arms. This would be a polite way to tell the Americans that China has a very cheap way to play with their warships, sailors and airmen. The batteries of China’s anti ship missiles are dotting the coast of China and would be sent to shower the American warships with Christmas lightings by the push of a few buttons. Quite easily and cheaply done.

The Americans may want to test the effectiveness and destructive nature of these anti ship missiles to prove they are right, that they are superior in the high seas with two aircraft carrier fleets at their disposal. The ball is in the American court and the Japanese would be the happy bystander, killing two birds with one stone.

How many of our politicians did not serve NS?

To be more specific, how many of our current serving politicians that are of NS age but did not serve NS? And how many are new citizens or not Singaporean by birth? This question will increasingly be raised by the people when more and more foreigners are being invited to become political/national leaders, to think and to serve the Singaporeans.

The big question in the minds of the true blue citizens would be this: You mean these people are better than Singapore born citizens, that we cannot find better Singapore born citizens than them to be our national leaders? Look at every one of them and ask, are they really that exceptional that they are the best, better than our Singapore born citizens and better than the men that have served NS and committed to defend this country with their lives?

You really believe that all the Singapore men are duds, not better than the foreign born citizens especially those that somehow did not have to serve NS?

What do you think?

The 1.5 quadrillion dollar derivative bubble waiting to go bust

I too could not imagine how big is 1.5 quadrillion dollars. Let’s hear what Michael Snyder said about this 1.5 quadrillion problem and what it has to do with derivatives.

“Today there is a horrific derivatives bubble that threatens to destroy not only the U.S. economy but the entire world financial system as well, but unfortunately the vast majority of people do not understand it. When you say the word “derivatives” to most Americans, they have no idea what you are talking about. In fact, even most members of the U.S. Congress don’t really seem to understand them. But you don’t have to get into all the technicalities to understand the bigger picture….

Well, the truth is that the danger that we face from derivatives is so great that Warren Buffet has called them “financial weapons of mass destruction”. Unfortunately, he is not exaggerating. It would be hard to understate the financial devastation that we could potentially be facing. A number of years back, French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as “financial AIDS”. The reality is that when this bubble pops there won’t be enough money in the entire world to fix it. But ignorance is bliss, and most people simply do not understand these complex financial instruments enough to be worried about them. Unfortunately, just because most of us do not understand the danger does not mean that the danger has been eliminated….

One day some event will happen which will cause a sudden shift in world financial markets and trillions of dollars of losses in derivatives will create a tsunami that will bring the entire house of cards down. All of the money in the world will not be enough to bail out the financial system when that day arrives. The truth is that we should have never allowed world financial markets to become a giant casino. But we did. Soon enough we will all pay the price, and when that disastrous day comes, most Americans will still not understand what is happening.”

The above were extracts from Michael Snyder’s article at http://themillenniumreport.com/2014/07/will-the-1-5-quadrillion-derivatives-market-collapse-in-2015/

This is a chilling article of how the whole world is allowing the floating of a hot air balloon into the stratosphere and waiting for it to go bang. There are so many experts and men of wisdom who could see the danger of this monster created by the financial thugs in New York and in all western model financial centres and crying out loud. It is not crying wolf just to frighten the children. The cries and pleas are for the financial thugs to stop this scam and unwind. Unfortunately, at this point in time there is no option to unwind but to keep blowing the bubble. Any attempt to unwind would cause a panic riot and deflate the bubble just as well. It is not that they did not understand and insisting of blowing it bigger. They knew the danger and are just praying that the bubble would not go bust.

Singapore is not so daft to pretend that it did not know and did not see the danger of this gigantic bubble. No, they are pretending to be daft, pretending that if it is ok in the US and Europe, it should be ok for us. If the West is not afraid of the bubble, why should we. If we don’t join them we will miss the boat. Let’s all pretend that all is well and blow our very own derivative bubble and join the party. If it goes bust, we can’t be blamed. Is there a need to sign an indemnity or disclaimer form like after the Lehman bonds and toxic notes now before blowing the bubble? And who should be the one to sign the forms first, the people selling the derivatives, the regulators or the ‘sophisticated clients’ aka rich and stupid and did not know what the fund managers are doing with their money but have millions to lose?

Singapore has now boarded the derivative hot air balloon and enjoying the ride. It is trying to play catch up with the West by pumping more hot air and cheering as the derivative balloon gets bigger and flying higher. Higher, higher, there is plenty of room to go higher. Derivatives are the way to go, to blow the top. There is absolutely no danger of a derivative bubble bust. We know what we are doing.

Did they not see the warning signs and the calls to curb this derivative monster? What warning signs, what monster? What would happen if the derivative bubble goes bust? Oh, they have all signed the disclaimer and waiver of indemnity forms. So should be alright. Not my problem. The ‘sophisticated clients’ have all signed their licence to lose all their monies.

Heng ah!

China, the student that surpasses the master

With no due disrespect to China, in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping arrived for his state visit, China’s leaders were still caught in an inward looking mindset, wanting to do everything indigenously, to reinvent the wheel of modernization. What Deng saw in Singapore, the transformation of this island into a cosmopolitan city state, must have set him thinking of what China could be. Lee Kuan Yew rightly pointed out to him that what Singapore could do, China could do many times more and better given the same industrious population.

In less than 40 years after Deng opened up China and modeled it after the Singapore of 1978, China has surged ahead in all fields and left Singapore behind like a jaded master. Singapore’s pride in housing is nothing compares to what China has built in the last 3 decades and still building in grander scale. Every Chinese city is transformed into a modern and bigger city, bigger than the island of Singapore. But that is not all, China is the factory of the world, not just producing plastic flowers and earthernware. China is producing everything that the western developed countries are producing and is closing the gaps in high technology and high engineering industries. In 1978, China did not have any of these. Today China is a front runner in high speed trains and giving Japan a run for its money.

I read in the news today that a French company is going to build LNG plants in China. I was a little baffled. Then again, if one is to look at the bigger picture of what is happening in China, this is part of the normal process of learning new technology. Ford, GM. Toyota, Honda and many international brands of heavy equipment manufacturers are setting up operations in China. There is nothing new in having foreign investments and attracting foreign investments into China.

The big difference is that in a few years, China would be producing everything the foreign corporations are producing, with local engineers and technicians, with local brands producing similar but better products at cheaper cost. Chinese brands are starting to appear in the international scene. The Chinese are not reinventing the wheels but hitching a ride, borrowing and copying foreign technology and using indigenous talents and workforce to carve up new markets for themselves.

Creative Technology had many years of head start ahead of the Chinese. But with very little govt support, it is shrinking in market share, in products and recognition. What would local companies like Creative Technology be if the govt had invested fully into them, with finances and local talents? Would our lead in water filtration plants like Hyflux be a household name in the world market if the govt invests heavily into it and be ranked among the Hyundai, Matsushita, Panasonic, Ssangyong etc etc?

The big difference between China and Singapore is that the former believes in its own people and talent and wanting to produce and make products of their own. Singapore only believes in buying, like buying kindergartens. We do not believe in growing our talents and our own industries. We want to buy them and replace our local talents and industries with foreigners and foreign industries. Instead of investing in our own talents other than lip services, and local companies, we went overseas to look for foreign talents and buying failed companies or cheap low tech companies and committing the sin of giving up on our own talents and companies.

China sent out hundreds of thousands of their best to foreign universities to learn and to come home to rebuild their country and industries. What did we do with our talents? Become administrators or politicians or soldiers. And what about the talents needed in the industries? Just buy them, bring them in, open the door in the name of free market and free competition, we don’t need to grow our own timber. We buy and buy but allowed our own timber to go to waste. In another word, we don’t have faith in our own talents, we dismissed our own talent as no talents and covet other people’s talents. But the sadder part, the talents we brought in are in many cases fakes and frauds.

While China leapt forward to take on the world, moving bravely and confidently into the 21^st Century, Singapore is slumbering in the past of 1978. Singapore has stagnated. Our top industries today are in food and services, in hawker food. Our banking and finance industries, IT industries have been overrun by foreigners, taken over by foreigners. Our health industry too has been overtaken by foreigners except for the top end. But this would not be long before foreigners take over the whole industry as well when citizens become a minority.

At least Malaysia is still trying to manufacture a national car. We are now promoting hawker food as the national icon, the industry of the future. And we don’t even know that in a matter of time, the hawker fare would be operated by foreigners as well. Our last bastion is the taxi driving occupation and maybe sublet rooms to the foreigners to make a living.  The plum appointments in the security industry are also filled by foreigners and our local PMETs would only be good to be security guards. Our so called talents would be only good enough as part time workers or working as temp staff.

The future is very bright. For who?

PS. A happy Deepavali to all our Indian brothers and sisters.