GE2015 – What could the results be?

The landslide victory of the PAP with many GRCs and SMCs chalking more than 70% of popular votes is too good to believe. The overall popular vote rose from 60% to 70%, a plus of 10% over the last GE. Many opposition parties and analysts were trying to make sense of the big swing. How could it be possible and what were the main causes of the swing, albeit the swing could not be due to a single factor and many other factors must have come together to reach this ending.

Let me do a review based on a single factor that was very prominent in this election, the new citizens. A total of 280,000 or close to 300,000 new citizens were eligible to vote rising from 2.1m in 2011 to 2.4m in 2015. This works out to be an increase of 15% of voters coming from the new citizens. A 15% increase in voter strength is very significant. If all the new citizens were to vote for one party, it simply means the party’s vote share would go up by 15%. Any party that won the election by 15% or less, in the case of the PAP and assuming that they are the main beneficiary of the new citizen votes, is actually hovering around a 50% share of the popular votes if the new citizens were not in the equation. Any PAP team that had less than a 15% winning margin would actually lose and go to the opposition.

The following are the PAP teams and single members that won less than 15%. 

1. Marine Parade GRC 64%
2. Sengkang West 62%
3. East Coast GRC 60.7%
4. Fengshan 57.5%
5. Punggol East 51.8%

These 13 seats could theoretically go to the opposition if the new citizens were not in play. No way would Li Lee Lian lose her seat in Punggol East.

The following GRCs and SMCs would be close calls.

1. Marsiling Yew Tee GRC 68.7%
2. Bukit Panjang 68.4%
3. Jalan Besar GRC 67.7%
4. Holland Bukit Timah 66.6%
5. Potong Pasir 66.4%

As for the margins of Aljunied GRC (50.95%) and Hougang (57.7%), the winning margins could have been much higher if the 15% new citizen votes did not add up on the side of the PAP. PAP’s vote in Aljunied could fall by another 15% to 34% and Hougang to 27%.

Technically, all the 70 plus percent votes of PAP should be less 15% to bring them down to more humanly acceptable level, in the 60s. So would the popular votes, going down to 55% instead of the 70%. Given the downtrend and the negative sentiments, this is about right and was the expectation of most analysts and the most fear situation in the PAP camp. But all the above extrapolation were not meant to be with the new citizen coming in at full force.

PAP should know that this is the real situation and must take stock at their growing unpopularity and growing dissent among the true blue Singaporeans. The deception is temporary. If there was indeed a ground swell, there would be roaring from the HDB flats whenever a result was announced, like during a football match. There would be spontaneous celebrations and people running wild with excitement and congratulating themselves for supporting the PAP to such an unbelievable win. The HDB flats were silent, the streets were silent. Did these say anything about the win? Remember the wins in Hougang and Punggol East and the spontaneous celebrations with people in the streets in a joyous and celebratory mood? There was none in this PAP landslide win other than among the supporters in the stadiums.

How much of the above analysis is pure speculation and how much is the truth, only the PAP inner core members know, the strategists and planners behind the PAP success story in this GE.

PS. The above analyst is based on the assumption that there was an additional 300,000 new citizens/voters in this GE. Another blogger has pointed out that the number of electorate increased from 2.35m to 2.46m or an increase of 110,000. Which is the true number?

Let’s try to figure out which is which since we do not have the official data.

There were 200,000 Singaporeans outside Singapore and not allowed to vote this time. This is about 8% of the electorate. The turnout for this GE was about 94%.  This implies that the 200,000 Singaporeans would have been taken out from the eligible voters or else the turnout would be less than 92% or near to 18% as the turnout of 2011 was 90%.

The eligible voters this time should be 2.35m less 200k or 2.15m instead. Thus there was still an increase of 2.46m less 2.15m or 310,000 voters. How this number came about, I dunno.  My analysis is accurate only if there were 300,000 new citizen/voters. If the number varies somewhat, the findings would be proportional to the changes using the same parameter. 

Would anyone be able to provide the real numbers?

PS2. My assumption that overseas Singaporeans were not allowed to vote is wrong and I will be putting up another article to revise my data and findings.

Opposition Parties should not be disheartened

The mood in the opposition camp is a scene of despair. What happened, why the big loss? How could it be, all the indicators were in favour of a big swing and the PAP was up for a good rubbing. The result was so shocking that many would have resigned to the fate and think of giving up. It is just too big a defeat that said it is all over.

Many started to reflect on all the goodies thrown at the voters and blaming the voters for turning against the opposition parties, the people fighting so hard for their freedom and independence. What could a few pieces of meat thrown at them compared to the lockup of their CPF savings, the unending payment for Medishield Life, high cost of living, PMETs losing their jobs to foreigners, being a minority, an alien in their own country and many more serious issues? The people may be called daft but they are not that daft.

The trend of falling popularity of the PAP was a confirmed down trend since the last GE. And this was proven by the Presidential Election and the two by elections. The people were turning against the PAP. They could not change their views in 9 days and with a few goodies they knew would not last. Though credit must be given to the PAP for coming with more pro Singaporean policies, for tackling the PMET and foreigner problems, cost of living problems, it is still to early to see the results and whether the policy change is real and will continue after the GE. The people cannot be so daft to throw all precautions away and voted blindly for the PAP.

The PAP did not win the election because they have won the hearts and minds of the people. At best the position was a status quo and the falling trend arrested. The key factor is the 300,000 new voters consisting of new citizens. This is the main factor that led to the swing. See my post ‘2015 – The Mathematician won’.

Going forward, the main question is what the PAP would do to win the voters to its side. Would they think that this win allows them to continue with their crazy anti Singaporean policies? Or would they take stock, thank the mathematician for the reprieve of another 5 terms to get things right? Or would they think that they have the right formula to win more elections by simply adding more new citizens into the pool?

The anger and distrust of the PAP are still there and these cannot go away unless the PAP changes its pro foreigner policies to pro Singaporean policies. The opposition parties must not fall into despair and chase after the ghost. There is no ghost. The Seventh Month is over. The number game cannot continue without the heart in the right place and looking after the Singaporean and their interests. No political party can continue to rule the people without looking after the good of the citizens.

It is not the end of the game, not the end of the opposition. The PAP has been given another chance. They know how they won this election, not because the people were turning around to support them. They could delude themselves to think that they have won over the people. They know jolly well that the truth is still out there.

GE2015 – The Mathematician won

A mathematician is more powerful than a magician. David Copperfield could create illusions but these are temporary effects of deception, not permanent. The number game of the mathematicians is real if they are playing with real numbers. This GE is won by the mathematicians doing just that.

There were some numbers being thrown around on the impact of new citizens. I received a figure of 280,000 new citizens. If I can recall correctly, it was reported that the number of voters increased from 2.1m to 2.4m, this is close enough to the 280,000 new citizens plus some locals. The percentage increased of new citizens in the electorate is thus 15% approximate.

To simplify the computation for the GE where there is a 10% swing towards the PAP or a 10% loss from the opposition camp, let me use the 60:40 formula to show how the results finally added up. In a constituency of 100,000 voters, assuming the percentage of votes was 60% and 40% in 2011, if the voters still voted for the respective parties, the result would now be 65% and 35%, that is if all the new citizens voted on the side of the 60%. It the new citizens voted for the 40%, the result would be 52% and 48%.

From the above, if the PAP got 60% in the last election, it should be getting 65% and a 40% vote for the opposition then would become 35%. On the reverse, if the WP got 60% then, its votes would now be 52% and the PAP should be 48%. Aljunied fits like a glove.

If I used a 20% increase of new citizens instead of 15%, the numbers would be 67%/33% and 50%/50% respectively. By applying this 15% increase of new citizen votes to every constituency, other that a few results with bigger swings due to factors like PGP, subsidies, etc, it is almost as perfect as you can get. The mathematician got it all worked out. A 15% increase in new citizens will win this election.

The voting pattern of the voters did not change much.  They did not turn against the opposition parties. They voted almost like the last GE but the result is totally different from the additional votes due to the new citizens. See how important the number of new citizens played in this GE?

Yes, the Mathematician won.

PS. Please don’t blame the Singaporeans for chasing after meats thrown at them. They did not. Using the same 60:40 formula, the 30% hard core pro opposition percentage would fall to 26% with a 15% increase in new citizens. And no, the theory that the voters voted for the PAP for fear of kicking them out is rubbish. The voters still supported their respective parties. It is the new citizen factor that changed the result of this GE. And you can expect more new citizens to be added to keep them voting for the PAP in future election.

The big question, how to stop the inflow of new citizens at such huge numbers not to change the pattern and result of future GEs.

PAP routs the opposition

In a watershed election of a different kind, the PAP was expected to lose more grounds to the opposition and at least a few more GRCs, with the tabled turned. No the table was not turned, the table was flipped over. PAP scored a landslide victory that borders an event in the twilight zone. In an unexplanable way, not only that no additional GRC was lost to the opposition, the PAP had a clean sweep of all the SMCs. And to make it more heady, the wining margins were in the high 70s, like 79%, 78%, &77% and so on. The opposition ended with 30% or less popular votes. The overall popular votes for the PAP rose from 60% to 70%. Can you believe that? David Copperfield would not be able to do that for sure. With parliamentary seats increased from 87 to 89, PAP has won 83 seats leaving the opposition with 6, one GRC in Aljunied and one SMC in Hougang.

The above is a summary of the ground shift in favour of the PAP. Some in the anti opposition camp find the result hard to believe, too good to be true. But that is the result at the end of the GE. The jubilation must have seen people flooding the streets last night to celebrate this great victory, this joyous occasion for a better future for the Singaporeans. I went to bed early when the writing was on the wall and did not stay to watch the happy mood of people on the streets. It should be. I could still remember the scene and the celebration when Hougang fell. The people were delirious and truly happy with that victory. And with this massive win by the PAP, the joy of a triumphant victory must be shared by the supporters and voters that gave the PAP this overwhelming win. If the result is for the opposition, this is what could be expected with the supporters running wild in high spirits, beating the gongs and popping champagne.

The turn of event took everyone by surprise. The team of analysts in CNA in a live broadcast was shocked. You could see their expression and body language. They came mentally prepared to talk about a seismic shift towards the opposition but were  rattled by the results.

Look at the events prior to the GE. All the signs were showing the other way. The turnouts at the rallies, the people, strangers and friends and their anti PAP views, the string of bad policies, of course the PGP, the MedishieldLife, the new citizens and some big moves by the PAP could tilt the balance, the anger expressed in social media and in every kopitiams, what had happened that could produce such a shocking result?

The PAP did not only win over the 40% of the swing votes. They even ate into the 30% hardcore anti PAP voters’ share. With above 70% to 79%, it means the hardcore anti PAP voters is now less than 30% in some constituencies will some falling to as low as 20%. The big picture, every 10 citizens, 7 voted for the PAP.  And in 3 GRCs the PAP did not even bother to hold any rallies for fear that no one would turn up. This is why many find it hard to believe, a black swan event.

I threw all the data into my computer for an answer. I left it on to crank non stop for one whole night. This morning my computer room was filled with smoke with the computer screaming, ‘Help, I can’t find the answer, Turn me off’. Even the computer had problem trying to figure out the change. It is pointless to list out all the but’s and the why’s. Maybe over the next few days I will get into the mood to talk about it more. In the meantime, the daft Singaporeans have voted. Oops, oannot call them daft. How can daft people vote so consistently and confidently for a one party to rule them with a blank cheque, to do as it likes, to continue with policies that they were strongly against? The voters must be smart and knew what they were doing. They cannot be daft, unless it is a classic case of The Singapore Syndrome.

One PAP supporter called Raymond had this to say, ‘You LOSERS never stood a chance! :) :) :) I'm elated and it's gonna be a beautiful day tomorrow. :) :)’ Did he know something that the losers did not?  I also agree with him that the winners should have the last laugh. And he did have a good laugh at the losers, ‘I just came by to say... 

HAHHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHHHAA.... :) :) :)

GE2015 – PAP looking for a landslide victory

At 10.30 pm, with several of the sample GRC results in, and all the SMC results, PAP is looking for a near clean sweep in this GE. A tsunami is building up but not what many in the social media are expecting. PAP is going to win big, a stunning win that nobody was expecting or at least in the opposition camp. From the samples, many were showing PAP winning by more than 70%, some in the high 70s, unbelieveable but that is the situation as it is now. With the TV commentators saying that such results have a maximum error of 4%, a near clean sweep is awaiting the PAP and with a huge margin.

Many people expecting a dramatic result with the PAP losing several GRCs are simply stunned. I too. What is happening? With so many unpopular and flawed policies, with so much anger on the ground, the result is showing exactly the opposite. Another miracle is happening, with the PAP winning a GE with a result that no one believed could happen in a democratic system. This kind of winning margin can only happen in a totalitarian state or a totally rigged election in the 3^rd World countries. PAP is going to prove the whole world wrong, that in a democratic system, a popular party can win with more than 70% of the popular vote. You must believe it.

The result will show that the PAP of today is even more popular than the PAP of LKY with the people fully behind it. It means that the people agree with most of the policies of the PAP and PAP can look forward to remain in power till SG100.

Many people must still be scratching their heads. It is a nightmare to those looking for a big upset against the PAP. No, it is going to be sweet victory to the PAP. Chew on it, dream on it, but this is the preliminary result so far and likely to be by the time the result is finalized.

Can one call this a freak election or a miracle election? By morning tomorrow the sandstorm would have settled and the people, especially those expecting a change in favour of the opposition would have to resign to their fate. The PAP is the party in power and with a stronger mandate and would be doing what they are doing with the approval of a bigger majority of the people.

I am still shock and puzzled. Will look at the picture again tomorrow. 

PS. The bookies are going to lose their pants.