2/25/2014

Short sell reporting a prudent move

Goh Eng Yeow wrote about the plans by SGX to level the playing field to require short sellers to report their short positions. This is a fair statement to keep all investors posted with timely information of what the big boys are doing in the market. The important point is that the information will be made available to all in a timely fashion and not some that are privy to information to take advantage of those that are in the dark.
 

The SGX has another disclosure measure introduced last year that required investors to indicate their short positions as and when executed in the SGX system. The purported objective is to disclose such short positions to the public and investors, another level playing field effort. All short positions will henceforth be reported by SGX the next day. This seems very fair but is that so?
 

What happens is that for those computer traders who have their super computers plugged into the SGX system will have immediate information of any short positions and could capitalize on it instantly. They don’t have to wait till the next day to know the short positions. They have real time short selling information to take advantage of.
So, is there a level playing field? With computers plugged into the SGX to have real time information when other small traders do not have, how fair is the system? 


Is there an elephant in the room?

Anger mounting with more MRT disruptions

SMRT had another major disruption on the North South Line at peak hours yesterday morning between Yew Tee and Kranji. And from a 10 minute delay it went on to more than an hour, affecting the most vulnerable group of commuters, students rushing to schools to take examinations. The anger and frustration were all over the net. Some of the comments posted by the youth and quoted in TRE are here:
 

Dory Shi Min: That is really nonsense. Board train at cck at 6.50 now is around 7.30 I still haven reach kranji. Hello I am having school exam
 

Zzq Alex: 10 min delay announcement at first then plus 20 min delay announcement then plus another additional 20min delay announcement…. Total stuck in train for 50 min… Now another 20 min delay announcements
 

Sky Oo: BULLSHIT!!!! Train faulty for 15min ? I waited 1hr30min and i am still stuck in the train haven reach destination. Poor service provider. We do not want word we are looking for action
 

Sue Salleh: What a sucking Monday SMRT!! And thanks as i’m in one of those affected train!!
 

Jeff Wong: Thanks for making me late for work today. I still could not board my train from woodlands for 30 mins already. The next interval at 6 mins during this peak hour. Come I clap for you.
 

Cheong Soon Hao: Can use cable tie fixed? I’m stuck for 30mins plus and counting
 

Dolphin De Esther: I am late for work…how mrt is gng to compensate tat?
 

WaOne Ketari: F**k you and ur management f**kin a***holes…!!!!!
 

Irene Kaea: SMRT you did it on purpose right? So that you can fine people $500 when they try to squeeze in the train when its full! If you want increase fare for more efficiency please show us, not breakdown everytime. Or is it we have no choice but to use your service so you dont give a fk about it and keep increasing price as n when you like?
 

Choi Dong Soo: Well done u wana raise the transportation fees for this crap service???
 

Alissa Ash Burn: On Monday… AGAIN? Why don’t u deploy your engineers on Sunday to do checks so it’s good to go for the peak hours???? Tts service for the people. We are not taking the train for free u know.
 

Justin Peh: Still say “smrt rank among better rail operators in international standards”?
 

There is no point belabouring on improving services and cutting down disruptions. It is better to look at the bright side. You may be wondering what can come out from these daily breakdowns that have become a new normal. For one, the engineers and management will gain first hand experience on trouble shooting, fire fighting and how to react to such failures on a daily basis. The experience earned would be of great value. They could then be as experienced as those engineers from 3rd World countries that have chalked up mountains of CVs for tackling frequent breakdowns in their train systems. Very experienced men.
 

Our public transportation experts could then use the experience to work in 3rd World countries to compete with their seasoned engineers and management, to prove who have handled more breakdowns and therefore better qualified for employment. From a recruitment point of view, somehow the ones that have more experience in a failed system are more attractive than those who worked on a system that has few breakdowns and their impeccable maintenance regime were not noticed. On home ground, the SMRT needs not have to recruit 3rd World engineers and experts anymore now that the chaps here are just as experienced as them.
 

Give it another few years we would have a highly trained and experienced team of engineers and experts that the last 40 years failed to produce. Not bad huh?
 

In every dark cloud there is a silver lining if you care to look for it. And now no one would dare to employ a sales girl to manage a complex engineering system. It is proven that an orchestra cannot play Mozart or Beethoven when the conductor is a bus driver no matter how talented he is in driving a bus.
 

PS. Students from the Republic Polytechnic were greatly affected by the train fault and many students unable to take their exams. Grades were affected even though SMRT late slips were given to the schools. Students would have to take another exam normally for students with MCs.

Kopi level - Green, nearly Blue

2/24/2014

Long winter for property market?

This is the headline of a report in the Mypaper today. It lamented that the hopes for some of the curbs to be removed did not materialized and the cold remains in propertyland. It said, ‘It was a letdown for property players, who were hoping to see policies such as the additional buyer’s stamp duty rolled back.’
 

Yes it is a letdown for the property players who had made a killing in the last few years. The property bull run lasted for more than 10 years and after a year of cooling measures when prices barely changed the property players are crying father and mother.
On the other side of the equation, ‘The non changing of the policies basically creates a buyer’s market for another one year or so…Serious buyers will be able to buy a property at a fair discount.’ Said Mohamed Ismail of PropNex.
 

Whose interests should the govt take care of first, the serious buyers that have been given the short end of the stick or the propery players that are gaming for more profits?
The fact is that even at today’s prices, the serious buyers are buying at a high with prices doubling or tripling for the last decades. What is another 10% or 15% fall in prices? I fully agree with Tharman’s decision not to remove any curbs as it is really too early to do so. The high prices only profit the speculators and hurt the serious home owners real bad. It also undercuts the quality of life when people are forced to buy smaller and smaller homes and paying more and more.
 

The policies for home buying must serve a national objective, the welfare of the people and the quality of life must be paramount. The drumming of property players must be the least of concern to a responsible govt that cares for the people.
What is this long winter shit?

Denise Chong’s agenda on more immigrants

 The ST does not publish articles on social and political issues in the city for no reasons and one is not wrong to assume that every article is carefully screened and approved before appearing on print. The weekend article by Denise Chong, a young journalist on the politics of envy or jealousy by Sinkies against the influx of foreigners here is no exception. What is the message?
 

Here is just a small quote to give an idea of what she is pushing and approved for printing.
 

“I guess no matter how comfortably some have feathered their own nests, the psychological weight of seeing other people with nest eggs that are 20 or 40 or 60 million times bigger can sour contentment they might feel about their own more modest success.”
 

Why is a young journalist pushing so hard for more immigrants to come on board in this tiny island that is already over populated and squeezing the citizens out in many things, jobs, space, owning properties and cars? Why are there people who are so adamant, stubborn and persistent to want to flood the island with more foreigners? Why is it that now with a 40% of foreigners here, and targeted to be 50% or more in 2030 is a good thing and the more the merrier? What is the agenda?
 

What is the intellectual level of a young girl to push such a serious matter of national interest that would impact the whole population into the future, and to be worthy of being published in the official media? Or this is just an innocent view of a young girl and has nothing to do with the officialdom?
 

The citizens are crying foul, feeling squeezed and deprived and marginalized and wanting to stop the influx, and here is another journalist trying to stuff it in with no heed to their pain and anger, even giving them a dig as being selfish and green with envy. Would we want to see more foreigners coming in to take on top positions in the ministries, stats boards and the govt offices in general? Do we want to see a new citizen as our permanent secretary, head of our armed forces or the police, or even the intelligent services?
 

Do we see any difference between foreigners, new citizens and the original born and bred citizens, or that they are simply the same and the citizens should make way for these ‘foreign talents’? What is good for a country or the citizens if the foreigners are here and took over all the top jobs in the country?
 

How many more foreigners do we want to flood this island before we say enough is enough? Are we a country, a nation, or just another fuck shop?

Pioneer Generation Package – The brass tacks

While the euphoria is still in the air that the 2014 budget is as generous as one could expect, let’s get down to brass tacks to know what it really means to the beneficiaries. As a 65er, it is up close to want to know what one will get from this package.
 

Assuming that one is healthy and not going to visit the outpatient clinics often, one is not going to get any subsidy from this provision. The main thrust of the Pioneer Generation Package is the life long subsidies of $200 to $800 per annum which are targeted at the impending introduction of Medishield Life Insurance. Presumably the Medishield Life will cover all and sundries of medical conditions of an oldie and there is no need to quibble over what is covered and what is not, and also no need to look at the fine prints of the T & Cs.
 

As I pointed out in my first post on this subject, the 65ers will get $200 per annum for life. And if this is fixed, meaning no incremental adjustments over the years as the 65ers grow older, it is likely that most of them will get about $4000 in all for another 20 years of lifespan, plus or minus depending on when one kicks the bucket. And that is it, nothing more, nothing less.
 

The next part that a 65er will be interested to know is the premium for Medishield Life. The current Medishield Plan premiums for a 65er are around $400 to $800 per annum depending on the coverage. The Medishield Life premiums cannot be lesser than these for the same age group. Assuming that the premium is $1000 and a 40% subsidy, a 65er will still have to pay $600 for the annual premium. The net cash impact is another $400 outlay on top of the $200 top up.
 

For the 65ers in the current Medishield basic plan, the net cash impact is unchanged but presumably with better coverage. Not sure about the co payment part and how much one will eventually have to pay for hospitalization under the Medishield Life.
 

The impact on the premium is not going to be static on two grounds. One, if the $200 per annum top up is going to stay as it is over the years while the Medishield Life premium rises with age. Another expected change is the annual adjustment of premiums by the insurers tagged to the amount claimed and the escalating cost of hospitalization bills. The status quo situation as projected by the current computation may not stay and the premium cost to the 65ers could go up and up with time. The compulsory Medishield Life Scheme may not be what it is today, and the funny thing, we don’t even know what this animal is like except to assume that it is benign. Would it be so and for how long before it turns into a beast like the dreaded CPF schemes, started with good intention but not the same any more?
 

There are many variables that can change along the way when the agenda changes. On the whole, the govt is giving away $8b over a 20 year period. With 3.5m citizens, excluding PRs, and at an estimated average premium of $400 pa, the premium to be paid to the ‘insurers’ will be $1.4b a year or $28b over 20 years ceteris paribus. Who is going to benefit from this $28b? Leong Sze Hian and Roy Ngern wrote in their joint paper that the govt needs not pay a cent more for healthcare with the schemes proposed in the budget.

Kopi level - Green