9/09/2011

Causes of low fertility rate

The govt is complaining about low fertility rate of Singaporeans. One way to overcome this is to send them to the animal farm and learn from those with 4 legs, and fertility rate guarantees to go up. The life style of animals is simply to eat, sleep and have sex, as and when please. Now, that would be a wonderful way to live if human beans can afford to do so.

Human beans are not just animals and have many preoccupations and pursuits in life. That doesn’t mean that they will be less productive. What then are the causes of low fertility rate?

1. Spending too much time trying to get an education.
2. Spending too much time trying to earn money to pay back the loans.
3. Spending too much time trying to make enough money to buy a decent place to put in a family.
4. Spending too much time worrying got money to support a family and children.
5. Spending too much time worrying where to put a maid in a 3 or 4 rm flat.

Do govt policies help or hinder the procreation instinct of the people? Many worry if they can afford to start a family when buying a home is going to leave them with nothing much to spare. A 3 or 4 rm flat is just too small for a family of 4, or worst with parents and a maid. With both spouses working, a maid becomes a necessity and needs a place to sleep. With school going children, a car becomes a necessity to bring the children around. And school transportation is not cheap.

And these are only the few basic things that are essential to starting a family. Basically, the cost is just too prohibitive. It is no longer eat and sleep, have sex and live off the land. The stress to survive and live better is burning out the virility of the young people.

The govt policies on housing, transportation, cost of living, education and paper chase, and the competition from foreigners, etc etc, all becomes hindrance to procreation and starting a family. Bet the govt does not have a clue that they are the biggest problem to procreation and low fertility rate.

Why all the screaming for higher fertility rate? Actually it has nothing to do with raising fertility rate, unless they are bringing in the studs. What is the real agenda? The low fertility problem is endemic in the system.

9/08/2011

A fatal HR Consultant mistake

One of my area of expertise as a HR Consultant is compensation and salary review. And I conduct my salary review as meticulously as possible, and make recommendations from market data available. Some of my clients who were less partial and wanted objective works were quite happy to accept my recommendations. Some who were partial reluctantly accepted my work, but I knew that that would be the last job from the client.

Doing compensation analysis and compilation of data may be time consuming and taxing, but a piece of cake for someone who is comfortable with details. And understanding the data, making sense of the data, is not difficult to a clear and analytical mind. The results can be very objective and rational and makes a lot of sense.

The problem is that the clients that commissioned the survey may have certain expectations, agenda, and wanted certain results. Here is my fatal mistake. I never ask the clients what they wanted to achieve, or their expectations. I brought along my own sense of discipline, professionalism and integrity in the execution of my work. I forgot that in the real world, idealism and sentimental reasons may not put bacon on the table.

See, now I am no longer a HR Consultant. No more compensation and salary survey jobs for me.

Just dig a hole

All it needs is for someone to dig a hole that is big enough. It could be an accident, but more often than not, due to bad judgments or bad policies, and a big hole is dug. This would lead to a series of attempts and more bad policies and decisions to cover the big hole. And what it gets is more holes, or the big hole getting bigger.

Our problem with the CPF savings getting out of our reach is one good example. The hole was dug by someone, somewhere, some times back, and no matter how they tried, it is getting bigger and bigger.

Our population fracas too is another big hole started with population control to population decontrol and influx of foreigners.

Our housing problems, some still living in their dreams, will eventually sink everyone, when the bubble bursts. It started with under building or not building to squeeze the supply. But supply there was as seen from the recent policy of ramping up the building programme. Maybe they are holding back the supply to push up prices to increase revenue, or to save for the private property market. There is no way to bring down the prices anymore without causing a bigger hole.

And the uncoordinated flooding of the island with foreigners added to the frantic craze to chase properties. And it started a process, one silly policy or scheme leading to more silly policies and schemes, and all ended up in a bind. All these were unnecessary. It all started with a big hole or a bad policy to start with.

The high cost of living too, started when money was stuffed into the pockets of many people in some quarters, when ramping up property prices was seen as good, a blessing.

The congestion, high demands for goods and services, cars, properties, space, hospitals, schools, roads etc etc, all started with one big bad policy.

Today, they are starting to dig another one, oblivious to all the problems that it is already causing. The experts see that there is no other way except to grow the population for economic growth and viability. If the same kind of thinking is pervasive, the world’s population will be 10 billion in no time. If every country is growing its population relentlessly, then what?

According to these experts, population growth is the answer to everything. Yes, fully agree. It will lead to rapid economic growth, rapid consumption of goods and services, resources and all things. It will lead to rapid destruction of the earth and rapid death. Try imagine how a glutton eats himself to death, growing to enormous size with an equally big appetite to eat more and more. When the world is furiously competing for limited resources to feed its growing population, one thing will surely happen.

9/07/2011

Say NO to Manchester United

Below is a letter by Narayana Narayana to the press appealing against the listing of this IPO in our stock market. I fully agree with his view and how the football racket is robbing the innocent sports fans and investors through their outrageous compensation scheme. This is no different from the thieves in Wall Streets and other financial institutions, turning innocent investors money placed in their hands into their own personal accounts.

Stock exchanges have behaved irresponsibly in many countries by recklessly accepting IPO listings to improve their own bottom lines and leaving the innocent investors clean and dry for failed and dubious companies. The way the football clubs are paying themselves crazy, like the fund managers and bankers of Wall Street tells one thing, their business is not sustainable.

Any institutions, govt agencies, that pay themselves crazy are suspects as they need to find more and more money to do that. The more they pay themselves, the more money they need to patch up the holes.

The Mailbag Editor,
The Business Times,
Singapore.

6th September 2011

Sir,

The projected US$1 billion Manchester United IPO has come in for regular discussion in your columns recently, with a fair
amount of speculation on what the terms of public subscription will likely be. SGX has categorically put to rest the suggestion
of a dual-class share structure.So far so good.

It is obviously premature at this still early stage to comment on how the IPO.will be pitched.

But what seems undeniable is that the pressing purpose of the IPO is to raise US$1 billion, and asap, 'to reduce the club's
debt burden and finance player purchases' (BT 26 Aug 2011) It was also reported that the club had 'successfully raised L504m
just last year and further piled up L478m in debt by March' (this year). That is no small beer. Intending subscribers are likely to
seriously ponder how that money was spent. An adviser on IPOs of other football clubs has offered the insightful explanation of
"(Man U's) massive debt burden, the massive payroll, and the need to replace certain ageing players'.

Against such a background, it would be interesting, and prudent for nvestors to learn what returns &/or investment merits the
IPO.will offer them.

In this context it may be relevant, and instructive, to revisit the history of IPOs in Singapore.

It was 60 years ago that the first of them, Metal Box, came on the scene. It was in fact a private placing by Fraser & Co., then
indubitably Numero Uno among stockbrokers in Singapore/Malaya. Far from a desperate need for capital, the issue, at $1.20,
promised a dividend of 10 cents or a return on capital of 8.33%. Banks then lent money at no more than 5% p.a., and the
premium effectively made up for putting money into equity stocks, then termed 'risk capital'..

Other well-established British companies trickled in, but uniformly and in common, they all promisd, and faithfully delivered,
handsome returns well over what banks offered for deposits, as well as they themselves lent out. By and large, those
early IPOs all offered good Investment opportunities from companies of repute.

In recent years, the tendency however has been to offer 'growth' as pitted against 'return', with IPOs pitched to 'what the
market would comfortably (or even uncomfortably?)' bear'. The focus of subscribers too has changed from 'return on
invested capital' to 'capital appreciation' with that last hopefully fast and large, yield be hanged..Abysmal and historically
low interest rates too have been a catalyst in promoting a 'how much can I lose after all?' mindset.

One could say that public appetite for IPOs has waned appreciably in recent months.In the particular case of Man U and
its IPO, media hype has focused on the club's large 'Asian fan support base' estimated at some 190 million. How mamy of
them are knowledgeble of stocks and the stock market to apply for IPO shares is arguably a separate issue. Sentiment
could no doubt sway some committed fans, but hard-nosed investors are likely to adopt a more sober stance.

There appears to be jubilation in some camps that Singapore has again stolen a march on its arch rival Hongkong.in this issue.

Similar euphoria erupted just a few months back when SGX landed Hutchison Port Holdings' IPO in preference to its home
base of Hongkong. However taking into consideration its subsequent lack-lustre performance, and that its current market
price is languishing one-third below its IPO price (without even factoring in another 5% depreciation through currency loss) it
can only be seen as a Pyrrhic victory.What was then touted as a 'plum catch' has in the event turned out to be a 'sour plum'
at least where the investing public are concerend. But seen from the other side of the fence, it was a veritable coup for the
promoters and all others involved in the IPO, and of course SGX as well.

Given the size of the Man U IPO, it looks as if strong institutional support will be required, as generally 'sentiment' by itself is not
a particularly strong point among retail investors. Whether the magnet behind the brand name of 'Man U' will of itself pull in
sufficient numbers will be seen when the IPO rolls out.

Yours etc.,

Narayana Narayana
Singapore 469297
Tel: 64461342

Notable quote by Dr Yik Keng Yeong

‘Beware of political opportunists online.’ By Dr Yik Keng Yeong

Redbean’s quote.
‘Beware of political opportunists in the main media.’