Black Saturday at Hong Lim Park

Gilbert Goh and his friends are making Hong Lim Speakers Corner as their home for Saturday evening picnic. Yesterday, 25 Jun, about 200 people in black were there to listen to their airing of the unhappiness over CPF minimum withdrawal and the employment of Singaporean first policy over foreigners.

The mood was quite calm and peaceful as the issues were discussed over a portable sound system that did not have the ballast to jolt the ground. I was there for a short while to take a few shots of the picnic and to feel the mood of the spectators. I missed the key speakers which include Tan Kin Lian, Tony Tan and Nicole Seah.

Alternative and main media reporting

The ST splashed on its front page today on the findings of a poll on party affiliation of presidential candidates. It reported that 50% of the respondents were of the view that ‘party affiliation not key in presidential race’. About 1/3 or 18 of the people polled thought that party affiliation could be an advantage and 12 people or 20% thought that this would work against the candidate. This, in my mental computation, says that about 80% of the people would not mind a candidate that is affiliated to the PAP. Tony should win hands down with this kind of feedback.

I did a straw poll and found that 100% of all polled was sceptical about a party candidate as a president. They all have the same reservation about how impartial and objective a president can be when he is too close or familiar with a political party. They described this kind of relationship with strong and unrefined words which clearly placed where their sympathy lies.

Ah, I think my poll is biased as the people polled somehow are less objective and will vote without thinking. So, to have a fair and representative survey it is important to select the respondents carefully and not going after the people that would tell you what you want to hear.

Somehow, the alternative and main media seem to be reading different things and painting different pictures from different groups of people. So, how different would the internet reporters invited to Tony Tan’s press conference be from the main stream reporters in their coverage of the event? Interestingly, the number one alternative media, Temasek Review Emeritus, was not invited while TOC, the Online Citizen, was invited. Is this an indicator that TOC has a better standing in the eyes of the establishment and deserved to be invited to the press conference?

Whatever, the act of being invited to a high profile political event speaks well for the alternative media. It is gaining recognition as a place where worthy alternative news and views are sought after. I am sure TRE will also be invited in times to come when people are more comfortable or accommodating to alternative reporting and opinions.

Why so few local CEOs?

In a pow wow session of local banks, most of the CEOs present were foreigners. Even the top local bank is represented by a foreigner who ‘may have just turned citizen.’ Sitting at the discussion panel organized by the Institute of Banking and Finance were ‘Lester Gray, CEO, Asia Pacific, Schroder Investment Management; Loh Boon Chye, managing director, head of corporate and investment bank, Asia Pacific, Deutsche Bank; Piyush Gupta, group CEO, DBS Bank; and Ray Ferguson, regional CEO, Singapore and South East Asia, Standard Chartered Bank.’

The only local sitting in the panel of CEOs was only a MD. A participant asked why there were so few local CEOs and the replied was that the banks were not concerned with nationalities but with experience. So the daft Singaporeans would still need to wait to be experienced. And hopefully someone will give them the experience and the chance to make mistakes. The Sinkie culture is not to take risk and not to try out the locals. On the other hand, foreigners were given all the opportunities to gain experience and make mistakes, even in Singapore.

So, how are Singaporeans going to gain experience and become CEOs when they are not even given the chance to gain experience? By the way things are developing, in the next 30 years or more, the daft Singaporeans will all be waiting to gain experience to become CEOs, even of local banks. And very likely during this period, all the local banks will be headed by foreign CEOs. The only exception is UOB if it is not forced to put a foreign CEO to take over the banking empire that Wee Cho Yaw has built.

Kind of embarrassing isn’t it? Actually it is not embarrassing. It is stupidity of the extreme kind. Our locals better go overseas to try to be CEOs there and hope that those countries are stupid enough, like us, to let them gain experience and make mistakes as CEOs.

I am waiting to see who will be the next foreign CEO to take over UOB.

Another challenge to PAP’s political dominance

Tony Tan has resigned from the PAP and confirmed his running for the president as an independent candidate just like Tan Cheng Bock. Many people will be wondering how independent does it mean? Is he PAP’s sponsored candidate just like the past elected presidents? Teng Cheong and Nathan did not claim to be independent candidates and were comfortable to be seen as PAP’s choices. Is the announcement that he is an independent candidate puts him at a distance from the PAP and would the people believe this to be so?

It is in the interest of the PAP to have its own sponsored candidate as it had done so in the past. The Elected Presidency, like the GRC, is designed to favour the PAP’s choice of candidate. And it is unlikely that PAP would not run a presidential candidate and give up its stake in the Elected President. In all reasonings, Tony will be seen as the PAP’s candidate unless PAP actually put up another candidate with an official endorsement of support. Without doing so, how many voters would believe that Tony is not PAP’s candidate.

Tony is PAP’s trump card, the strongest card it has played and available to the party. The winning of the presidency by a PAP backed candidate is of paramount importance to the party. It must win as the other candidates have openly stated that they want to be guardians of the reserves, exactly as what the elected president was set up to do. Life will be tough or at least not as easy going should anyone not on the PAP’s side is elected.

How would the people decide who should be their president? Would they choose a president the PAP wanted, or would they choose otherwise? Or would PAP just leave the situation as it is, that Tony is an independent candidate and not say anything in his favour? Given Tony’s standing and stature, it should be a walkover. He has all the good qualities expected of a president. He even looks like a president.

It is not that Cheng Bock or Kin Lian look less like a president. They too look quite good. If one were to place all the cards on the table, Tony definitely has a big edge. The only thing going against him is his closeness with the PAP.

If the people find that a truly independent president, independent from the PAP, is the crux of the matter, and the most important attribute of the president, then all the goodness of Tony may be swept aside. If the people want a president that will stand up to the PAP, then unfortunately, Tony will not be their candidate of choice no matter how many thousand times Tony claimed that he is an independent candidate, ready to do what is expected of him as the President, to protect the country’s reserves.

There is nothing Tony can do to remove himself completely from his past association. You can’t blame anyone for thinking that he is PAP. It would be an uphill task for Tony to persuade the people to think otherwise. He can try of course.

So, what do the people want? A rejection of Tony will be the clearest warning that the PAP has lost all its political capital and on its way out. This is a presidential election to watch, coming so close behind the last GE. The GE was a watershed. The presidential election could be a waterfall. It will see another of PAP’s foundation being knocked down should Cheng Bock or Kin Lian trounce Tony. It will be another attempt by the people to chip on the PAP’s armour of invincibility.

The public consensus that no opposition can bring down the PAP except the PAP itself is becoming a reality. Both Cheng Bock and Kin Lian were PAP. It is the breakaway, the internal rivalry that is coming to the open. It only needs the people to help make it happen.

PAP’s presidential candidate

With the amount of publicity in the main media, it is almost certain that Tony Tan is the likely PAP candidate for the presidential election. So Nathan would likely be stepping down. For those who are looking for a Malay President, the hope is fading away fast.

There should be no issue about Tony’s credential and qualification for the presidency. His only weakness is his PAP badge even if it is taken down. The mood of the people is for a truly independent president, not just because of his great credential and track record. If Tony is defeated, it is not because he is not good enough.

The bigger issue is who to fill his position of Executive Director in GIC. From past experience, no one is good enough, I mean no locals will be good enough. They all lack international exposure and experience. Very likely another yoda will be wheeled to fill the post. If they can’t fill any yoda that is still kicking, maybe the next obvious choice is a foreign talent. And there are plenty of foreign talents available. If need be, just offer the candidate a citizenship badge and call him citizen. That should do the trick to soothe the nationalistic fervour.

Any true blue Singaporean hopefuls eyeing for the job will only be disappointed. We just don’t have that kind of caliber candidates today. Anyone under 60 belongs to a generation of straight As and first class but good on paper only. Maybe good enough to become politicians. The real talent will likely come from a little village somewhere around the world, preferably in a third world country, hungry and willing. Never mind if his primary or secondary or even first degree is not from a branded top notch school. Never mind if there are no straight As. Ability and talent are not written in a straight As report card or first class degree from the Ivy League.

There must be many dark horses waiting to fill Tony’s shoes. Or maybe a white stallion from the US or Europe will also do. Sinkies, forget it. Just my reading after gazing too long at an old crystal ball.